Budget Perspectives 2010 Post author By Richard Tol Post date October 12, 2010 The conference will start in 80 mins, and is fully booked. Background material is here. Categories In Fiscal Policy 9 Comments on Budget Perspectives 2010 ← Ricardo Strikes Back: The Net Effect of the Irish Credit Bubble on Cumulative GDP → Grandfathered permits 9 replies on “Budget Perspectives 2010” Could some kind person who attends the ESRI conference please raise the matter of ESRI’s forecasts for net emigration in the years to April 2009 (when they over-estimated it by 42,200 – outcome 7,800 v ESRI forecast of 50,000) and April 2010 (when they over-estimated it by 35,500 – outcome 34,500 v ESRI forecast of 70,000), and maybe post back here what they say? And, before anyone brings it up, yes, their forecasts are for the year to April. I just checked. The population is now 77,700 higher than if ESRI’s net emigration forecasts had proved accurate. I don’t think that such forecasting errors should be brushed aside, especially as they were made after the years in question were allready over, and ample data from the CSO QNHS series had allready been published, showing that they were likely to be highly inaccurate, which they were. Perhaps someone could risk disturbing the ‘cosy consensus’ (as Brian Lenihan calls it) and ask an ESRI spokesperson there why nonentity JTO’s forecasts for population and migration, posted on Irisheconomy.ie for free, have, for two years running, been vastly more accurate than ESRI’s taxpayer-funded forecasts? It is not a trivial matter. Accurate forecasting of population growth is critical to the outlook for NAMA. I have politely raised the matter here several times, as have others. The standard response is simply to be accused of trolling. But, I consider my queries perfectly legitimate, especially as I pay large sums in taxes south of the border (and north), and part of the southern haul goes to fund ESRI. Thanks Richard – very timely. ‘The current fiscal and economic crisis will eventually end.’ Joe Durkan ‘Tyrone declares an independent republic.’ John the Optimist ‘What border is he on about?’ Patrica the Sovereign (in exile) JohnTheOptimist ESRI is publicly accountable. +1! Session 2: Microeconomics Chair: Colm Kelly, FFS FFS! Interesting enough. I dare say the paper on ‘Universal Social Contribution’ and the dangers of it being regressive was the most interesting on the day. I assume the lack of response to my request indicates that no one was interested enough to raise the matter. Either that, or someone did, and is now handcuffed to the ceiling in the ESRI dungeons, awaiting his fate. @JTO I attended the Budget Perspectives event and can confirm that your concern was not raised. Could have something to do with emigration and population issues not being a direct focus of any of the papers. @JTO – if you are so keen on getting an answer why don’t you pick up the phone and ask yourself as was suggested to you before. In any case you go on about the ESRI population forecasts but you say nothing about the CSO forecasts and their immigration assumption. Comments are closed.