Cancun, climate, and weather

Fokke & Sukke are proud weathermen The outcome of the climate negotiations … can now be predicted months in advance.

The 16th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 6th Meeting of the Parties to its Kyoto Protocol has started today in Cancun. It will last for two weeks. Unlike last year’s conference/meeting in Copenhagen, expectations are low this time. Again, results will be minimal.

The economic crises, the results of the mid-term elections in the USA, climategate, and the deception of Copenhagen are often listed as reasons why Cancun is unlikely to lead to a breakthrough. I would add that the international climate negotiations repeat the same moves over and over again. If something did not work the last 10 times, why would you try it again? I’ve argued elsewhere that the international framework for climate policy is complete, and that we should now focus on reducing national emissions at minimum cost.

There is another similarity between Copenhagen and Cancun. It’s winter. There are slow oscillations in the climate. Experts reckon that cold winters may be with us for another decade or so. After that, trend and cycle will conspire to rapid warming.

8 replies on “Cancun, climate, and weather”


“..we should now focus on reducing national emissions at minimum cost.”

This, of course, is what Minister Ryan would claim he is doing. Not long more for him in office to push his costly and expensive Green fantasies, but do we have any assurance that what will follow will have any more sense?

This link gives a flavour of current fun’n’games at the EU level. Belief in fantasies isn’t a uniquely Irish Green phenomenon!

Hope the link works.

The data isn’t running the way we previously predicted and ignore what we said before, we still have 10 years to “save the planet”, but believe us when we tell you that climate science alone has predicitve capabilities that are lightyears beyond those of lesser disciplines.

Come on, this is getting comical at this stage. I would laugh if the “policy” still being pushed and has been instituted to date wasn’t so dangerous to our welfare and well being.

If rich world leaders wanted a deal on climate change, wouldn’t they refrain from scheduling these conferences during northern hemisphere winter?


The data is turning out to be worse than predicted. You can see for yourself IPCC Arctic Ice predictions for 2050 that materialised in 2010. One of the great misperceptions being pushed is that moderate IPCC predictions are “scaremongering”, whereas there are many scientists who think the IPCC is fuddy-duddy in its forecast.

I hope no-one thinks the current weather is an argument for or against global warming. It could be either.

The mechanisms may be in place but when the main actor is intent on ignoring them they are kind of useless. Hence Cancun (and somewhere else next year and the year after).

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