European Commission’s Autumn Forecast Post author By Philip Lane Post date November 29, 2010 The details of the 2011 and 2012 forecast for Ireland are here. The full release is here. Categories In Economic growth Tags Ireland's forecast growth 7 Comments on European Commission’s Autumn Forecast ← Central Bank PCAR Statement → Forfas: Review of Labour Cost Competitiveness 7 replies on “European Commission’s Autumn Forecast” http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/implications-of-imf-deal.html Er, why did EC ptb (our masters) leave it until the day after the deal to mention that they didn’t agree with Government growth forecasts for Ireland as per the 4yp? http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1129/breaking36.html The EC forecast of the Irish General government balance is at 10.3% in 2011 and 9.1% in 2012 “taking into account broad consolidation measures of 2.2% of GDP” (page 94 of the document). Yet the Irish government is engaging in austerity? The 4-year plan projected a maximum gross debt to GDP ratio of 102% which does “not take account of any additional support to the banking system that may be part of a negotiated programme of external assistance”. However, this report projects a gross debt ratio of 114% in 2012. Whether this includes the bank recap is unclear as the last paragraph states “the government deficit and debt is subject to further risks related to banking sector recapitalisation needs.” So how did they come up with 114% in 2012. Does this include anticipated recap costs coming from the EU/IMF deal or is this estimate excluding the bank recapitalisation? From the wording it would seem like the latter, but this would make a complete mockery of the government estimates. Your new Gauleiter has spoken – and it’s a threat – you gonna sit for this? http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1129/imf2-business.html Interesting that the final interest rate is not yet agreed. ‘The final interest rate, he said, would be specified this week, but it was based on the same principles that the IMF and the EU had applied in relation to Greece, and as agreed by Ireland when Greece received its €110 billion bail out.’ some bailout!! page 85 of the main document, country forecast for Ireland Nominal wage adjustment is also taking place, led by corresponding cuts in the public sector now feeding through to the private sector. The public sector led the private sector in wage cuts? Comments are closed.