QNA Release for 2010:Q3

The quarterly national accounts for 2010:Q3 have been released. They show seasonally adjusted real GDP increasing 0.5% quarter over quarter and seasonally adjusted real GNP up 1.1% over the same period. There are also some small upward revisions to the second quarter figures, with the change in real GDP revised from -1.2 percent to -1.0 percent and the change in real GNP revised from -0.3 percent to 0.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, real GDP was down 0.5 percent in 2010:Q3 and real GNP was down 1.6 percent.

Nominal GDP perhaps matters more for fiscal policy and here the news is also better than we have seen in some time. Nominal GDP was up 0.8 percent in 2010:Q3 and the second quarter figure was revised up from a 0.3 percent decline to a 0.2 percent increase. Nominal GNP was up 1.9 percent in 2010:Q3 and the previous quarter was revised up from a 0.5 percent increase to a 1.9 percent increase.  Nominal GDP is down 1 percent year over year while nominal GNP is down 2.3 percent over the same period.

The growth in the third quarter was driven by a strong performance for net exports, with all component of domestic demand contracting.

12 thoughts on “QNA Release for 2010:Q3”

  1. I see we have a quarter of a billion in surplus on the current account.

    Exports surging and imports falling?

    The celtic tiger is dead, long live the celtic lazarus!

  2. We force ourselves to analyse US GDP quarterly and one or two others like Germany, and China (partly for amusement value). Basically you have to do this because, well because everyone else does and the market might run over you if you are not looking.

    Even the US figures are a bit erratic and few are patient enough to collect enough data points before clutching for a conclusion from the series.

    Why anyone would spend much time pondering the release of each number in the Irish series makes little sense to me – even in current circumstances.

    In the spring/summer the number was suspiciously high – cue idiot politicians doing the turned corner thing. In the Autumn it probably over-corrected – cue panic.

    It is a lagging indicator plus you really should put a moving average through it to correct for the volatility and that makes it even more lagging.

  3. “Nominal **GDP** was up 1.9 percent in 2010:Q3 and the previous quarter was revised up from a 0.5 percent increase to a 1.9 percent increases.”

    Should be GNP.

  4. It’s good to have some positive news even if the reality is more nuanced.

    Dealing with Irish data is a constant battle against bullshit.

    Overnight, we had news as distinct from data on the Irish National Pensions Reserve Fund’s $50m investment in US venture capital firm Polaris Venture Partners.

    IBEC said it “confirms global confidence in Ireland’s innovation ambitions.”

    Basically we paid an American VC to set up a unit in Dublin and Cowen described it as a “significant coup for Ireland”.

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021263.shtml

    On the qna, State agency Forfás chief executive, Martin Shanahan, said: “The fact that goods and services exports have increased by 15.1% compared to the third quarter of 2009 and that overall good and services exports have now consistently recorded strong annual increases from 2009 indicates that an export focused approach to economic growth is the key driver to ensure Ireland’s economic recovery. This trade performance was the key to recording positive GDP and GNP growth in Q3 2010, the first positive economic growth recorded since the end of 2007, as increased industrial output and net export growth compensated for declines in domestic demand.”

    Exports in current money terms grew by 50% in the period 2000-2009 but employment in the sector was static.

  5. The one and only number that counts is employment. I suggest an offering to St. Lazarus tonight might help…

  6. Good news on the current account, but we need to sustain a surplus. Lets hope its not a blip, but the trend does seem to be positive.

    I agree that employment is the main thing that counts.

  7. @Rob S
    Yep, that’s my favourite measure (in a time of deflation) and I’m pleased to see the improvement in it and the upgrade for Q2.

  8. It’s particularly good to see GNP posting an increase in the third quarter. This breaks the 9 consecutive quarters of decline and hopefully presages a similar increase in the fourth quarter.

    It’s also good that GDP is increasing but the rate is disappointing. I thought we’d see 1% growth at least in the third quarter. It’d be great if this figure is revised up in future national accounts.

    The trend over the last three quarters are also quite positive. Both GDP and GNP are moving in the right direction. Hopefully this trend continues into the Q4 and 2011.

  9. John the Optimist predicted this some time ago because of the distortion caused by Imports in the first half of the year. So I await his analysis of these statistics with much interest. Is it possible that despite the cockup of the finances by Clowen and Lenihan that the business sector are just getting on with it and doing the needfull anyway. Certainly the idiots in the Department of Finance will do their best to make a mess of any recovery with a bookeeping Budget for 2011. God save us from Civil Servants!!!

  10. @ Michael H

    ‘Exports in current money terms grew by 50% in the period 2000-2009 but employment in the sector was static’

    Can you point to a detailed analysis of the real economic activity, as opposed to flows of funds, in our MNC sector these days ?
    Much obliged

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