The Live Register figures for March are out.
The standardised unemployment rate in March was 14.7%, unchanged from February. This compares with the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 14.7% from the Quarterly National Household Survey in the fourth quarter of 2010, and an annual average of 13.6% for 2010.
By way of comparison, the baseline forecast for 2011 unemployment in the Central Bank’s PCAR macroeconomic scenario is 13.4%. In the adverse scenario, this rises to 14.9%. We are almost there, and it is only March.
At least the Central Bank scenarios got the 2010 unemployment numbers right! This contrasts with their 2010 GDP numbers, as Dan O’Brien pointed out earlier in the week.
(And I admit that I am baffled by an adverse house price scenario that is not robust to the ‘What if Morgan Kelly is right?’ objection.)