A meeting of the Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland will take place on Thursday, 27th October 2011, starting at 6:00 pm, in the Royal Irish Academy, 19 Dawson Street, Dublin 2. Dr Martina Lawless and Dr Fergal McCann (Central Bank of Ireland) will present a paper titled “Credit Access for Small and Medium Firms: Survey Evidence for Ireland”. An abstract is set out below.
The extension of credit to SMEs in Ireland has been identified as a necessary condition for economic recovery and job growth. The debate on whether this below-target provision is caused by over-vigorous credit rationing by banks or a lack of credit demand on the part of SMEs has received much attention in media and policy circles. Owing to a lack of relevant available micro-data, research on this issue in Ireland has been sparse to date. The aim of this paper is to provide evidence using recently available firm-level data from the Central Statistics Office and the European Central Bank. Using the CSO data, we find a moderate decline in credit applications, coupled with a very large increase in credit rejection rates. Using firm-level production data, we find no evidence that the accepted firms have been pooled according to firm performance – more productive and fast-growing firms are as likely to be rejected as any other firm. Using the ECB data, we show that Irish firms are 15 to 18 percent more likely to be rejected for credit than a comparable Eurozone SME. We show also that Irish firms are less likely to have had decreased credit demand than other Eurozone SMEs in the 2009-10 period.
A meeting of the Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland will take place on Thursday, 24th November 2011, starting at 6:00 pm, in the Royal Irish Academy, 19 Dawson Street, Dublin 2. Professor Philip Lane (TCD) will present a paper titled “The Dynamics of the Irish Net International Investment Position”. An abstract is set out below.
At the end of 2006, Ireland’s net international investment position was -5.6% of GDP; at the end of 2009, it had ballooned to -102.6% of GDP and it has remained at a very high level since then. The net international investment position is closely tracked as an indicator of external sustainability and this very large measured net external liability position is a negative risk factor for Ireland. This paper seeks to explain the divergence between the dynamics of Ireland’s net international investment position and its relatively small current account imbalances during this period.
Non-members are welcome to attend and participate in the discussion.