Howlin: Estimates Statement Post author By Philip Lane Post date December 5, 2011 The public spending plan is here. Categories In Uncategorized 32 Comments on Howlin: Estimates Statement ← The Merkel-Sarkozy Deal → Fiscal Union in the 1990s… 32 replies on “Howlin: Estimates Statement” Roads funding now 3.6X public transport compared to 2.7X last year. I can’t see how this fits with the PfG commitment to “rebalance transport policy to favour public transport”. Also a 20% reduction in the meagre smarter travel budget for cycling/walking infrastructure in contrast with the PfG commitment to “invest in the National Cycle Policy” Will we have to have an emergency budget and more cuts next year when forecast growth doesn’t materialise, people stop spending after Christmas (more so than now) and exports drop because Europe and elsewhere is in a recession/depression next year? Enda said last night that we need to protect the vulnerable and create jobs and if this first part from Howlin is half time then I’m afraid to say he’s 0-1 down. BTW am I right in thinking we (a tiny little neutral country) are spending the thick of of a billion on defence? Blind Biddy quietly polishing her neu Howitzer … the bazooka sits gleaming in the other corner … Noticed a strange set to her more serious visage on mention of futher cuts to disability and fuel allowance … she was hoping for a reversal on the Hanafin cutz … not looking good. The modern languages in primary schools initiative has been canned. Future generations of young Irish will be restricted to moving away to English-speaking countries only?! I thought this budget was about jobs? How are they going to get a job if they can’t converse in something other than English? “The Government has decided to reduce the fuel season from 32 to 26 weeks. This will save €51 million next year; …” The first snow flurries of the year were reported yesterday at Knock and Belmullet, Co Mayo …. (no odious or pantheistic or budget related correlation intended) http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1205/breaking16.html @pr guy Re defence expenditure. Irl 0.75% of GDP, Sweden 1.5%, Denmark 1.3%, Switzerland 1%, Netherlands 1.6% @ Pr Guy “Will we have to have an emergency budget and more cuts next year when forecast growth doesn’t materialise, people stop spending after Christmas (more so than now) and exports drop because Europe and elsewhere is in a recession/depression next year?” Yes. Suggest forming PR Trade Union sharpish. You should be able to come up with a snappy name (I’ll provide flip-chart). Table II.b on page 24 gives a sense of the departmental winners and losers – I mean philosophical concept of the kind of country that can be envisioned by the current government. Hooray for Communications and Defence! Boo to Social expenditure and Sport. Funny blip on contingency. Cut from 6day to 5day based part-time workers will ‘save’ far more than ~5 million govt claim. I would estimate approx 80m per year. Still Croke Park saves the chosen ones! @Ninap “defence expenditure. Irl 0.75% of GDP, Sweden 1.5%, Denmark 1.3%, Switzerland 1%, Netherlands 1.6%” I would argue that just because others spend money on defence, it doesn’t mean it’s actually necessary. I would rather pay some old dear an extra six weeks winter fuel allowance than buy a new armoured personnel carrier, guns, bullets, pay for ineffective UN troop presence in Africa, etc. … and I’m told that Blind Biddy could get them arms a lot cheaper anyway! The supposed “right-wing” members of FG should resign in disgrace having allowed this socialist utopian budget pass the house. Howlin outlines that by 2014 we will be spending 52b. With our tax receipts likely to be marooned in the low to mid 30b range how can such economic madness be allowed to persist? Why are the IMF not insisting on a proper expenditure correction rather than this meek, Labour drafted effort that will do nothing to curb the real sources of our fiscal death spiral. The government are trying to deceive the economically illiterate by passing this farce off as “austerity”. Kenny missed an opportunity last night to outline to citizens that Ireland is facing ruination without massive and permanent cuts in spending. Clearly FG have shown once again they do not have the fiscal stomach to tackle the real sources of this ongoing disaster, namely public sector pay & welfare. Prof Morgan Kelly called for a once off fiscal correction to balance the books and was castigated by yet another spineless Irish government wedded to public sector unions. What will the government do when this action becomes inevitable almost certainly within the next 12 months? ““The Government has decided to reduce the fuel season from 32 to 26 weeks. This will save €51 million next year; …” The first snow flurries of the year were reported yesterday at Knock and Belmullet, Co Mayo …. (no odious or pantheistic or budget related correlation intended)” I would imagine that the new reduced fuel allowance period of six months will still encompass the month of December in fairness. It seemed a little underwhelming – – many items still to be worked out. Sheltered sectors to lose some thatch; public service pay bill will fall by €400 million in 2012 – – net of pension costs? Since 2007, more kids in schools, 500,000 more medical card holders and State pensions have increased from €3.7bn to €4.7bn. I refer to Figure 1.e (page 10) of the Comprehensive Expenditure Report. What is this nonsense of the “Net Pay Cost” (the pink line) . All costs and charrts should based on Gross Pay. To do otherwise is rubbish. Karl Whelan last week pointed out that public pay and pensions make up 25.5% of expenditure. He based the claim on p. 49 of this document. The minister today claimed that public pay is 30% and pensions 6%. Both report social payments as comprising 38% of the total. Who is right? Avoided closing the welfare trap that sees certain claimants with families earning above the industrial wage. An unskilled to semi-skilled married man with four or more children is effectively unemployable in this scenario. An Taoiseach said yesterday that jobs were central to the budget. No sign of it in today’s performance. In Act II tomorrow, perhaps? Or do we have to wait for that mooted Multi-Annual Action Plan for Jobs to hear anything significant constructive? The BBC reports “The Justice Minister Alan Shatter revealed that 31 Garda (Irish police) stations will close throughout the country. There will be a reduction in the public opening hours of 10 other police stations in the Dublin area. ” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16035066 Does anyone know where this detail is contained in today’s announcements? @ Ernie Ball, The figures used in today’s speech are the proportions of current expenditure that the areas comprise. The figures provided by Karl from the SPU are for total expenditure. @Jagdip, Details are here: http://www.justice.ie/en/JELR/Pages/PR11000245 2 very important points from Joseph Cut from 6day to 5day based part-time workers will ’save’ far more than ~5 million govt claim. What is this nonsense of the “Net Pay Cost” (the pink line) . The net pay cost means either they are tracking the public employees payment of tax very closely (a number would have section 23 properties for example) or it is bollocksology. Still my overriding impression from listening to it is; It took Howlin ages to read out figures that amounted to a tiny fraction of what the bankster boys have stolen in the past few years millions mean nothing anymore @BeeCeeTee Thanks for that. I see that some Dublin Garda stations will now be closed during the night “The Commissioner also proposes to reduce the public opening hours of the following stations in the Dublin Metropolitan Region: Cabinteely, Stepaside, Kill O’ the Grange, Sundrive, Terenure, Cabra, Malahide, Santry, Howth, and Donnybrook. These stations are currently open to the public on a 24-hour basis and will, in future, be closed to the public between 10.00pm and 8.00am” “Avoided closing the welfare trap that sees certain claimants with families earning above the industrial wage. An unskilled to semi-skilled married man with four or more children is effectively unemployable in this scenario.” Can you show evidence of that? I’ve heard members of the government say recently that this is only true in a very small number of cases and that generally entitlements are phased out gradually as income increases. @Richard m I was wondering about this myself I remember hearing a guy on the radio who said he could not believe the deal that had been done and said he thought the real deal was that we pay the bankers, play the austerity game and then we will be sorted out when the time came. Starting to make sense now as there seems to be no real attempt to actually bring the deficit into line. The story seems to be to protect the insiders and use the opportunity to screw the low paid and mortgage serfs @jagdip Does anyone know where this detail is contained in today’s announcements? The Bundestag, of course. Get with the programme 😆 & keep up the good work by candlelight …. @Jagdip Good to see that D4 is crime free and they can now close up at 8 pm. All thieves please note that you are not to operate after 8 pm as it would be unsporting. @ Richard M Clearly FG have shown once again they do not have the fiscal stomach to tackle the real sources of this ongoing disaster, namely public sector pay & welfare. Nice of you to drop by, Seanie. Some of these expenditure cuts aren’t exactly cuts. They’re transferring costs to consumers/users. Or putting it another way, they’re increasing the cost of living/doing business. 400 million net pay saving? Yet reading the estimates it is 170 million when pensions are included. Mr Howlin is telling public sector porkies, he reminds me of Mr Jim Hacker with his Sir Humphreys spinning crap about public sector reform and pay. Remember Labour was put into power by the public sector to protect Croke park agreement…and Yes Minister you are doing an excellent job. Spotted this on the small adds. in the local … ‘Aged 18-24? Got a disability? Living in Occupied Ireland? Want to fight back? Training in howitzer, Excel, political science, bazooka, IT, and financial instrument techniques for disabled with courage, fortitude, and balls – Contact the Blind Biddy Hedge Fund – we are recruiting now, and action is guaranteed. ‘ Are dead banks more important than this vulnerable segment of Irish society? Pause noted; and welcome. Recruitment continues … @Joanne O’Riordan on Joanne O’Riordan Dear Enda … ‘A cut to my entitlements is a cut to my life’ Thursday, December 08, 2011 http://www.irishexaminer.com/world/kfqlgbojmhmh/rss2/ Comments are closed.