Quote of the evening

@ Kevin

Do you think we will have an opportunity in Ireland to vote on the Compact?

In what I feel was a slightly misjudged gesture of imperial favor the secretary general of the CDU was in Paris two days ago explaining to a UMP meeting how France needed the strong leadership of “someone like” Nicholas Sarkozy and that in later announcements the CDU said that it would be helping him in his bid for reelection in whatever ways they could.

From the indispensable Financial Times ‘Sarkozy gambles on the Germany connection‘

Mr Gröhe launched a fierce attack on the policies of François Hollande, the opposition Socialist candidate who leads Mr Sarkozy in the polls, saying his policies of redistribution would weaken France and Europe too.

Those awful policies of redistribution that somehow caused the global financial crisis and our current recession by compromising our purity of essence.

We forget just how far to the right the current German government has moved, and just what it means for the EU. It is a real shame that Merkel managed to ram through the latest iteration of the austerity and misery pact before Sarkozy was too damaged to sell out as much as he has, perhaps French democracy will prove to be more robust than Merkel wishes though.

The Transport Minister said he was not a fan of the system – which gives the public a say on significant political issues – saying he believed it to be undemocratic.

“I don’t think referendums are very democratic,” Mr Varadkar told RTE. I think Leo Varadkar will get on exceedingly well with Frau Merkel.

@ Kevin O’Rourke

Words fail me, but they’re hardly necessary

I wonder…

This is a good bone to throw to the folks who appear to believe the Europeans are to blame for all our woes – – it beats having to deal with the bitter truth.

Derek Scally in the Irish Times on Monday commented on the Captain Renaults who were flabbergasted by Kenny’s remarks in Davos:

The same people who insisted that Ireland’s boom was all their own doing – nothing to do with EU investment or trade opportunities – now insist the bust is Berlin’s fault and Brussels’ problem. Privatise success, socialise failure and condemn anyone who points out the inconvenient truth.

We’ve heard about failures of leadership and the labourious process of reching agreement on the debt crisis but when there is finally an international agreement and it is for example ratified by the national parliament of France, 1) it’s not democracy 2) a subsequent government could repudiate it and rewind the situation.

Of course any governemnt can take whatever unilateral action it chooses but how long would multilateralism survive that?

As for Ireland, maybe there should first be a referendum on the troika’s nefarious interference in our internal affairs such as trying to end legal cartels.

Angela Merkel grew up behind the Iron Curtain. She was bred, trained, educated and instructed by a totalitarian system with nothing but contempt for the will of the people. She served as an agent of the Soviet Empire in East Germany, in their propaganda division no less.

I believe that Angela Merkel’s early life under communism has informed her politics and decision making far more than any economic, fiscal, or political argument. I believe that fundamentally, she sees nothing wrong with compelling countries into a union dominated by a single powerful nation.

Merkel will not listen to or even accept democratic votes in France, Ireland, or Greece. She has already toppled the last Greek government that attempted to do so, and the fear of god has been so put on our own spineless government that they will do anything to avoid Russian tanks rolling over the border—I mean to avoid Bundesbank Euros flowing out of the borders. Merkel is quite prepared to apply the tactics and philosophy used in the union of her birth, to impose the same kind of union on the whole continent of Europe.

Angel Merkel will accomplish with a single currency what two empires before her could not do with 300 divisions. She is going to conquer Europe.

Ireland is now at war with an emerging German empire. Our leaders may be prepared to sell our independence to former soviet apparatchiks; and if so they are no longer our leaders. The only government that we the Irish people can recognise is a sovereign, independent, national government. If Enda Kenny and Angela Merkel are not prepared to accept this, then the people must revolt.

Competition is for people who cannot face up to alcohol.

Next thing you know we will have a distribution network that anyone can have access to without contributions to the cause. The end of civilisation as we know it is coming to an end.

@ Shay Begorrah: ” … our purity of essence.”

Long time since I heard that phrase. And ironically enough, the overall situation in EU-land is similar. Rogue(s) on the loose with nukes (CDS, CDO, or “whatever your having yourself”). Lovely. Thanks for the memory!

OFM: Your commentary about the youthful formation of a mindset is correct. ‘A Perfect Spy’ – le Carré; or a ‘Fall of a Titan’ – Guzhenko; come to mind, but some philosopher or other must have uttered words of wisdom on the same topic.

“Immature strategy leads to chaos” – Musashi

Hahahaha…. and this comes from Merkel, a politician with zero convictions displayed over her career span whatsoever, changing fundamental opinions like we change socks.

Unfortunately, its all a bit of a reminder of the Vichy government that collaborated with the Germans from 1940 to 1945. At that time, The term the term ‘French Republic’ was changed to the ‘French State’. So, I’m wondering should we get rid of the embarrassing term, the ‘Irish Republic’ and switchover to a more Germanic, ‘Irish State’?

Speaking of the idiocy of ‘the Compact’. Its an appalling legacy of the ineptitude of EMU politicians in dealing with the fiscal crisis. Keynesians who want to save during good times will be able to do so; but those who want to spend during ‘bad times’ will be punished by the European Court for doing so.

Its all a bit of a laugh really. The ‘Compact’ is the first step in closer political and financial union with Germany. The only way it can work is if all the other members of the EMU collectively vote for total annexation by Germany in new referendums.

Oops, just remembered! The Plebiscite(referendum) was a favorite tool of Germany in WW11. The plebiscite was rolled out after takeover by the Germans to achieve compliance and subjugation of local regimes.

Interestingly, Luxembourg voted 95% plus against the referendum enforced against their state when they were taken over. This stimulated their resistance movement.

Crap, I shouldn’t be watching those discovery history programmes; they just give you nightmares 😉

Enda wants us to sign the ‘Compact’ in return for no deal on burden sharing, no deal on reduction of interest rates, no jobs, a vague promise of further lending, promise to pay back all odious debt to Anglo bondholders, ICB/PNs … AUSTERITY forever..Empty promises…where do we get these people from?

Lucky these guys don’t live in the real world 🙂

@Michael Hennigan

“A referendum would be great gas for some – – addopting the abuse role of English football hooligans.”

Even hooligans deserve a vote based on the democratic principle of all those over the age of 18yrs having a right to vote.

Perhaps some would like to confine voting to a smaller number as in FG party members of government?

The term ‘EU partners’ has more meaning for a praying mantis killing its mate than it has for Irish taxpayers on foot of what’s been targeted at them by the jackboot Troika.

On the other hand, there are those who think we got a great deal with the promise of more to come……

The people should choose. After all, this is a democracy; or is it not?

I know TDOC meant it lightly but can I suggest that we not mention the second world war, the Nazi party or Hitler in conversations about Germany’s current elected government? Germany has an exemplary recent record on peaceful behavior in the last 67 years (well, for a member of NATO) and on human rights.

Merkel is just another ambitious, wrong headed and empathy free head of a conventional conservative party left in a powerful position by historical circumstances and failings in international institutions, the hated political figures we should be comparing her to are Thatcher, late stage Blair and Pinochet.

Can we leave embarrassing the Irish in an international setting to Enda?

It’s just Standard Operating Procedure for the EU. Governments have to live up to the commitments of their predecessors. Hardly any decision ever gets rolled back, and never for any reason that smacks of democracy.

Ireland gets hit by this sort of stuff all the time. The only reason it appears remotely shocking is that this time it is the French who are getting slapped around.

Well, if its good enough for us it should be good enough for them too.

(The upside is that they should be able to replace their nuclear generating capacity with a new renewable source – just attach a big generator to De Gaulle spinning in his grave.)

@ tull mcadoo

Ms 35 Hour Week ha scalled Hollande ‘soft’ left.

It’s crazy to rollback the retirement age to 60 when it’s so difficult politically to raise.

This ‘socialism’ is pandering to the mainly comfortable while young people are basically left to the market to find jobs as temps.

Meanwhile a male who retires at 60 can expect to live until 80. If he had entered the workforce at 25, that would be work of 35 years and dependency of 45 years.

Eventually if the economy is run in deficit for 36 straight years, it will run out of road eventually.

When Papandreou called a referendum on the greek deal it was coted as a classic case of double level game theory. Papandreou realised the deal would not fly with the existing political situation in Greece so he tied his hands at the national level to improve his bargaining position at the EU level. When the EU leaders went apoplectic, it served to force the issue in Greece. He created a crisis because he was between a rock and a hard place and something had to give.

There is no such justification for Enda Kenny at this stage unless he sees the IMF deal as totally unsustainable and/or too damaging to Irish social fabric in the long run. Of course then he would have to be ready to leave the Euro and there is nothing to suggest that he or his colleagues have the will to do that no matter what long term damage the IMF deal may cause.

Apart from that, the Govt is probably justified in assessing that increased ECB support and increased German political support for measures to bring about economic recovery are the best prospect for Irish recovery.

Personally, I do not believe that the government are psychologically open to the suggestion that the IMF deal and rolling negotiations thereof might be so damaging in the long run that it would be worth the short term pain of exitng the euro. This may change in the future if things continue to deteriorate but I honestly believe they will not change course come what may.

@paul hunt

”..but you forget the nationalist, populist, but photgenic, xenophobe…”

This whole thread is fearmongereing about foreigners (Xenophobic) ,Germans et al.

If working class people object to too many foreigners in employment,taking housing,on the dole etc here in Ireland its called racism.
However when the opinion makers ,economists ,University lecturers on here rip into foreigners when it affects their spheres of activity its called patriotism or Democracy.

@Sean
Sean boy , you were not down in the trenches 10 years ago – this European experiment was not about Glorious Union but out & out attack on ALL workers by very organized capital.
There was no way Irish working class youngfellas could compete with sophisticated Czech middleclass youngpeople.
It was why we had a final credit orgy – all of the demand was taken out of the economy via wage cuts & money exports – so the banks flooded all compartments with credit.
Get real lads – yee are still living in a politically correct Irish middleclass bubble which uses recently invented social mores to stop dissent.

I’m personally of the opinion that, whatever the ostensible complexities, there is an important question at issue in this deal which our government is less well equipped to tackle than the electorate at large.

The question is whether the current track we are following is so damaging that it would be better to go our own way, even with all the short term problems that that would cause.

This is not a question that has a correct technocratic answer, and is not a question that our government or public service is capable of approaching objectively. Over a period of decades, we have shaped the whole of our mainstream political class so that it is incapable of choosing anything other than minor variations on the Frankfurt/Brussels/Berlin/Paris way.

My own belief is that the track we are following is bad for Ireland. I’d like to be part of an Irsh electorate that gets the chance to make that judgement for itself.

@Colm

“Can anyone with legal expertise here tell me if the government can be challenged on ratifying the ‘Compact’; if the AG states it does not conflict with the constitution? ”

Thought SF had already said they were going to do that if the AG rules out a referendum?

@Shay Begorrah

I don’t trust our politicians and civil servants. I just trust plebiscites less. What turnout would you get? What about people who are not willing to vote becasue they know they cannot be properly informed?

I have been reading up about the local and global economy for about three years now and I recognise that it is not within my wherewithal to get to grips with the economic and legal effects of these matters. Indeed, it is not within any one person’s wherewithal and many contingent future events are unknowable.

I think that the best protection for democracy os to limit this latest treaty to being an act of the oireachtas therebby allowing us to change it in the future if we so wish, subject to the grief that will cause us in our international relations.

I am deeply disturbed about the lack of democracy in the EU and in the USA, and at the disproportionate influence and power which banks and markets exert on our leaders and their civil services. I am infuriated by the socialisation of losses while bankers homa and abroad keep their millions.

However, all this anger does not make me forget that plebiscite has long been a favoured tool of dictators. Napoleon, Mussolini and Hitler all used plebiscite to bolster authoritarian structures. He who chooses what is to be voted on exercises relatively unfettered power. Whilst the will of the people must be brought to bear to correct the ills we are suffering, we must be wary of the pit of authoritarianism and extremism which these ills are causing to open up under the foundations of our democracies.

@zhou_enlai

However, all this anger does not make me forget that plebiscite has long been a favoured tool of dictators.

I had a bet with myself how long it would be before someone described a potential Irish constitutional referendum as a plebiscite (perhaps ungenerously I think of it as an unconscious betrayal of class loyalties).

Just as I am sceptical of the relevance of the Nazi’s to understanding German conservatisms current entirely conventional, if sadly misguided, neoliberal agenda I think it is unwise to mention 1930’s dictators usage of popular votes to concentrate power and reduce accountability in a situation which is clearly about the polar opposite.

We need referendums, or the threat of them, as part of the process to make European politicians resume their roles as more representatives than leaders. You can be sure that European solidarity will not make a return until countries feel the solidarity they are offering is to the populous and not the elite.

@The Dork of Cork

”…Sean boy , you were not down in the trenches 10 years ago – this European experiment was not about Glorious Union but out & out attack on ALL workers by very organized capital…”

I was being facetious.
Having felt first hand the negative impact of mass immigration in the community I live in I have been denounced by many when I have objected to the pulverisation of my identity,economic well being,personal security etc.

I have posted before about the impact the EU has had on my life and the community I live only to be condemned as a xonenophobe by a prominent university lecturer .
The point I made still stands; When economists,lecturers,etc link current German policy with what the nazis did its acceptable because it affects your sphere of activity.
I am just pointing to the double standard of the establishment which many who post here are part of despite the appearance they like to give of them manning the barricades for the rest of us plebs.

What fills me with gloom is the prospect many on here will be rushing to seize power and fill the shoes of those politicos etc that will be cleared out if we do leave the euro. Perhaps a bit like whats happening in Libya ,maybe not as extreme or as violent as Libya, but we may end up replacing one set of thugs with another bunch of self important ‘opinion makers’.

@Shay Begorrah

Referendums do have their place. However, even if you think this is a suitable quiestion for a referendum (and I don’t), you need to consider that the EU might require that any referendum be a constitutional referendum (as is your preference) thereby making the agreement more restrictive and binding us in a much more permanent and restrictive manner.

What if the referendum is passed 60% to 40%? What then? Are you happy to be constitutionally tied to a German sponsored economic theory?

One major purpose of this Treaty is to provide political cover and support for the necessary measures to be taken by the ECB and by Germany. If that does not come to pass and stagnation and hardship are the future then all bets may well be off. However, it could be difficult to reverse the a constitutional debt brake at that time given the increasing number of right-wing flat-earthers in the country.

My last paragraph had its sense reversed.

Since the set of “things that might actually work” are not amenable to persuasion, being things, we should have focussed on changing the things that were politically feasible (since these are opinions) and reinforcing the false German narrative about the European component of the global financial crisis by acquiescing to the fiscal compact seems guaranteed to do the opposite.

@ Desmond Brennan

“And note the Socialist candidate has pledged he is running against the Anglo Saxon world of Finance.”

Well, there’s some hope there at least. The pink-shirted Masters of the Universe could do with a few good kicks in the goolies, they’ve gotten off lightly out of this collapse so far.

@ OMF

I don’t think it has much to do with the Soviet Union. The Iron Chancellor would have approved her aims (but presumably not her self-defeating means).

@sarahcarey

..I know people like Derek Scally take umbrage at the popular anti-German stance but to be honest, I got sick of the “Germans are great if only we’d listened to them” line a long time ago. …”

”…We’re bailing out German banks along with French ones too. ..”

The Germans and French are acting rationally to defend the interests of their own people.The failure has been at the ECB to curb excessive lending when it was happening.

@sarahcarey

”…If they’re so smart, why did they invest in the first place?….”

They got their money back so it worked out for them.If you want to question who is so smart better to look closer to home.

One of those listed as being paid on 25th January when the government handed over 1.25 billion was Goldman Sachs.The chairman of Goldman Sachs international is Peter Sutherland.
A former attorney general he appears on rte and in the Irish Times (both bastions of liberal fundamentalism) when its referendum time to propogate his dire warnings of apocalypse if we did nt vote for Nice 1 and 2 then and Lisbon 1 and 2.
The political establishment are in rapture of this man yet this carpetbagger pocketed millions in taxpayers money for his company on the 25th January .

Perhaps the IT will take a more jaundiced view of Sutherland if he campaigns in any future EU referendum.But then that would require professionalism and objectivity.So I guess we’ll have to depend on foreign journos for that.