22 replies on “Central Bank to Survey Households with Mortgage Debt”
Next up:
National Consumer Agency to survey Priory Hall residents on housing inspections.
Financial Ombudsman to survey Anglo Irish Bank shareholders on share support schemes.
Shipbuilders to survey Titanic survivors on floatation devices.
Stable door maker to survey horses on locking mechanisms
The purpose of this survey is to gain a better understanding of Irish household circumstances ”..in order to scale and target policies more effectively.”
I hope the Central Bank gains an understanding that most of the money supply originated from these mortgages and that, since mortgages now take two incomes their working career to repay, the money supply cannot increase significantly through this avenue again.
We can no longer expect borrowers to create the money supply. We need a publicly created source of debt free money to replace ability to print cash, which is now insignificant given the scale of the digital money supply.
Paul Ferguson
Sensible Money
@What Goes Up
+1
Brought out a smile on a bad day.
It never ceases to amaze that in ireland certain categories of question must be asked repeatedly until a satisfactory answer is received.
Is it not possible for the Central bank to simply look over the shoulder of the existing financial institutions and extract the relevant information.
Central banks could not give a toss …. their function is to save their little sisters credit empires.
Why the real economy and its development has been outsourced to these debt merchants is beyond me.
They make money via extraction…. its got nothing to do with wealth creation….. its all about wealth transfer.
The exchequers of Europe have clearly betrayed us…. selling everything of value to these shylocks.
Me thinks its time to print Treasury paper and cut the banks off from the sovergin tax base.
Is 2,000 a big enough sample? Should they ensure they get a good mix/balance of those who have lost their jobs since taking out the mortgage and those who haven’t? I presume they will exclude buy to lets?
Or should they just quit stalling and give everyone the money to pay off their outstanding mortgage? Of course if they did that, Mrs PR Guy would become a one-woman consumer-led recovery. I need the crippling mortgage just to keep her in check and the retail sector in the doldrums 🙂
@Paul Ferguson
“We need a publicly created source of debt free money to replace ability to print cash, which is now insignificant given the scale of the digital money supply.”
Bord Leprechaun?
The fact is that the citizens through the geniuses in the CBI paid €30m to external consultants to do this exercise last year. Yes its not a mis print it was indeed €30m. And now we have the CBI having to partly go through the exercise all over again and yes you guessed it hire another 3rd party to do their job for them. This is despite an additional 750 staff in the CBI since Mr Elderfields arrival.
I suggested this time last year that the time had come for Messrs Elderfield and Honohan to exit after the sham of last years PCAR exercise was concluded. Of course nobody listened because the country had been spell bound by Shane Ross’s sycophantic love affair with Mr Elderfield and its the housing market all over again except in a different life form i.e. sure Mr Elderfield simply can’t be wrong – well I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news – he was and is.
I’m no mystic meg but it didn’t take me too long to work out the fact that the PCAR document which was supposed to estimate housing loan losses and which failed to mention the phrase ‘rental yield’ at all in its examination (go check) of likely PTT house price losses was never going to be credible. And lo and behold here we are just over a year later and we’re already applying a second coat to a failed exercise.
For the love of God have Matt and Pat absolutely no shame. Please go and go quietly your tenures in both cases have been marked in the case of Mr Elderfield by being cought completely out of his depth with regards to the ins and outs of the property market and the knock on effect it is having on the banks balance sheet and by Mr Honohan by being too soft and nice as a negotiating party to the bailout agreement in allowing the ECB et al to inflict an interest rate at the outset on the country of c 5.8% to ‘teach us a lesson’ and importantly in voting with the ECB rate setting committee in the early part of 2011 to increase base rates. It was like watching Japan in the mid 1990s all over again.
When the acid test came to both extremely well paid gentlemen, they have been found badly wanting, precisely at the time when we needed administrators with savy, clout and vision we got do gooders and ploders. No thanks.
@ Yields or Bust
+1
Not just Honahan and Elderfield but the same senior officials in DoF with current LB/FG government attended by ex political lobbyists deeply involved in the banking sector.
Next project is to fit up taxpayers with a giant replica of the ‘guarantee’; this one is for Europe, the ‘Compact’ as they look forward to further endorsements, further bailouts leading to more austerity!
But I do disagree the gentlemen in question can be classified as ‘do gooders’
@Colm
LTRO is behind this particular point in the Euro deflationary phase and the decline of M1.
When commercial banks hold more goverment debt on their books they will subtract credit deposits to pay the interest via the tax system.
Paul Ferguson idea of crediting base euros to peoples new “CB / treasury ? accounts” is a noble and wise proposition.
However it probally will not happen….. the banks wish to dig themselves out of this hole by destroying / digging the remaining rump bits of the physical economy in the interests of a idea of money which is fundamentally kleptocratic.
They have done this before…indeed after each bank credit induced recession which they call the credit cycle for some reason (its not natural).
Its just the scale of this theft that is gigantic.
They are bad to the bone.
Its time people got used to this evil.
This nice man routine is merely a routine , really it is.
On a real economy note.
Interesting passenger data on the Cork /Dublin air route for 2009 / 2010 now that we know Ryanairs dynamism cannot beat the laws of thermodynamics (has anybody got the 2011 figures ?)
Y 2009 :335,647 arrivals & departures
Y2010 :168,423 arrivals & departures.
Also has anybody got the corresponding rail passenger data for this route ?
I think the numbers on the premier route have held up because of this air passenger decline.
So therefore…
From De paper Febuary
“Despite ongoing uncertainty over state funding for major transport projects, the report proposes a major new railway station with large-scale park-and-ride facilities near the M50 as part of improved transport connections to Dublin Airport for commuters travelling from the south and west.”
It would certainly be more attractive for this Corkonian as I avoid Dublin as if it had the plague.
@ Yields or Bust
+1
Colm +1
With Elderfield and Honohan we are well on the way to ruination. Morgan was too kind to him.
@Yield or Bust
“This is despite an additional 750 staff in the CBI since Mr Elderfields arrival.”
I had no idea it has become a job creation scheme. So the gubmnt’s policies are working then.
@PR Guy
They were required so as to ensure the system was adequately supervised just about the same time the banks were either exiting the country or their size and scope was being halved. I’ve asked the question before as to what exactly these people are actually doing? We know that the current office space is supposedly inadequate so hence the rationale in buying the shell that was once Anglos new headquarters, but are we seriously to believe that all these staffers are working at optimal levels. I’m not a believer.
I know of no organisation which has increased its staffing to the tune of c60% since 2007 despite its business model suggesting its customers and their outlook shrinking at an equally rapid rate. And as suggested above they still have to employ externals to do the real analysis. Some achievment.
Talk of the HSE being a dysfunctional organisation is wide of the mark in comparison – the problem we have was born and bred in the Board rooms and lending departments of our beloved banks – all regulatory regimes no matter where they reside are after the fact models. My suggestion some while back was to insist that financial organistaions be broken down by size and complexity and those that require ongoing scrutiny should be required to have a regulatory official on site and attend all Board and related departmental meetings so we get away from after the fact regulation.
Until this happens the CBI can hire another 750 staff and it will not make an iota of difference. Blaming the Regulator for the crisis is equivalent in my eyes to blaming the Revenue Commissioners for tax evaders. That’s illogical.
Any chance of a thread on Hollande’s demand for a side order of growth to go with the main course of austerity in the fiscal compact ?
It takes a little while to stop a behometh. Titanic took 4 mile at full reverse trust. God knows what a modern 600 m container transport would need.
The dopes are still using historical data to astrolize (sic) the future economic outlook, which is utterly useless in the current predicament. But the dopes insist. Its truely maddening. The vast majority of plain folk lack the relevant knowledge and analytical skills to hold these dopes to account. Mind you, some so-called intellectual critters seem to lack awareness as well.
If ‘they’ want, need, desire, crave, ‘growth’; its rather simple. Dump all debt. Give each consumer a big wad of cash, and large credit limits on their plastic. Now we are off to the races”! 😎 Eh! Well maybe not! “What’s wrong with more debt, then?” Ah! Yes!
The CB Survey is known as ‘Busywork’ – or if you are still in school, ‘homework’. Adjectives fail to describe such behaviour.
Looking at some airport arrival / departure data.
One of the few growth routes that I can see is the Dublin / Frankfurt air route……
It was out of the Dublin airport top ten in 2009
But in 2010 it crept in at number 10 at 430,593
in 2011 it was at number 8 at 439,065.
On a bi – monthly basis the max passengers was at 2010M 07 :46,745
& 2010M 08 : 47,603
This contrasts with 42,333 & 40,899 during those summer months in 2009
47,007 & 46,603 in 2011.
Now many of these people are summer tourist passengers but why is Frankfurt perhaps one of the few growth destinations for Dublin airport during this multi year period? ….Germany is not your typical holiday destination.
Are all those CBers flying back & forth during those hot summer months ?
September and October of 2011 was also showed record numbers 41,592 40,279
This contrasts with 2010 figures of 41,295 & 38,640
Also 2009 figures of 35,850 & 34,043
They are impressive growth figures when you contrast these numbers with the collapse of passenger numbers to almost all other destinations during this multiyear period.
It perhaps paints a picture of financial engineers flying to keep their ship of credit afloat as the physical world sinks around them.
@The Dork of Cork
“One of the few growth routes that I can see is the Dublin / Frankfurt air route……”
Lots of people in financial services – not just CB’ers – use this route. Have done myself several times this year. It seems to be happening more frequently just lately that I have more German people giving me orders. Oo-er.
There’s a great little bar near the DB building in Frankfart and if you’re in there at midnight, the barmaid….. no….. let’s not go there.
@PR
With the exception of the Barmaid thingy it sound like pointless activity & expenditure of resourses.
Much prefer to see real world expenditure on rational fixed capital…..of course the Rosslare to Fishguard , Fishguard to London , London to Frankfurt train route is a bit far off at the moment.
@ Dork
I’m not a regular here but I have to commend you on your ability to dig up statistics and contextualise them.
Aside from your logic you are the most entertaining contributor to this blog and a good reason to return to it.
Thanks.
Thanks Nuts – many would disagree……..
@The DOrk
“it sound like pointless activity ”
It is (I could have conducted it by phone/email) but directors of big financial services companies love calling meetings where they can sit at the head of a table of loads of people. I believe it’s called ‘ego’
22 replies on “Central Bank to Survey Households with Mortgage Debt”
Next up:
National Consumer Agency to survey Priory Hall residents on housing inspections.
Financial Ombudsman to survey Anglo Irish Bank shareholders on share support schemes.
Shipbuilders to survey Titanic survivors on floatation devices.
Stable door maker to survey horses on locking mechanisms
The purpose of this survey is to gain a better understanding of Irish household circumstances ”..in order to scale and target policies more effectively.”
I hope the Central Bank gains an understanding that most of the money supply originated from these mortgages and that, since mortgages now take two incomes their working career to repay, the money supply cannot increase significantly through this avenue again.
We can no longer expect borrowers to create the money supply. We need a publicly created source of debt free money to replace ability to print cash, which is now insignificant given the scale of the digital money supply.
Paul Ferguson
Sensible Money
@What Goes Up
+1
Brought out a smile on a bad day.
It never ceases to amaze that in ireland certain categories of question must be asked repeatedly until a satisfactory answer is received.
Is it not possible for the Central bank to simply look over the shoulder of the existing financial institutions and extract the relevant information.
Central banks could not give a toss …. their function is to save their little sisters credit empires.
Why the real economy and its development has been outsourced to these debt merchants is beyond me.
They make money via extraction…. its got nothing to do with wealth creation….. its all about wealth transfer.
The exchequers of Europe have clearly betrayed us…. selling everything of value to these shylocks.
Me thinks its time to print Treasury paper and cut the banks off from the sovergin tax base.
Is 2,000 a big enough sample? Should they ensure they get a good mix/balance of those who have lost their jobs since taking out the mortgage and those who haven’t? I presume they will exclude buy to lets?
Or should they just quit stalling and give everyone the money to pay off their outstanding mortgage? Of course if they did that, Mrs PR Guy would become a one-woman consumer-led recovery. I need the crippling mortgage just to keep her in check and the retail sector in the doldrums 🙂
@Paul Ferguson
“We need a publicly created source of debt free money to replace ability to print cash, which is now insignificant given the scale of the digital money supply.”
Bord Leprechaun?
The fact is that the citizens through the geniuses in the CBI paid €30m to external consultants to do this exercise last year. Yes its not a mis print it was indeed €30m. And now we have the CBI having to partly go through the exercise all over again and yes you guessed it hire another 3rd party to do their job for them. This is despite an additional 750 staff in the CBI since Mr Elderfields arrival.
I suggested this time last year that the time had come for Messrs Elderfield and Honohan to exit after the sham of last years PCAR exercise was concluded. Of course nobody listened because the country had been spell bound by Shane Ross’s sycophantic love affair with Mr Elderfield and its the housing market all over again except in a different life form i.e. sure Mr Elderfield simply can’t be wrong – well I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news – he was and is.
I’m no mystic meg but it didn’t take me too long to work out the fact that the PCAR document which was supposed to estimate housing loan losses and which failed to mention the phrase ‘rental yield’ at all in its examination (go check) of likely PTT house price losses was never going to be credible. And lo and behold here we are just over a year later and we’re already applying a second coat to a failed exercise.
For the love of God have Matt and Pat absolutely no shame. Please go and go quietly your tenures in both cases have been marked in the case of Mr Elderfield by being cought completely out of his depth with regards to the ins and outs of the property market and the knock on effect it is having on the banks balance sheet and by Mr Honohan by being too soft and nice as a negotiating party to the bailout agreement in allowing the ECB et al to inflict an interest rate at the outset on the country of c 5.8% to ‘teach us a lesson’ and importantly in voting with the ECB rate setting committee in the early part of 2011 to increase base rates. It was like watching Japan in the mid 1990s all over again.
When the acid test came to both extremely well paid gentlemen, they have been found badly wanting, precisely at the time when we needed administrators with savy, clout and vision we got do gooders and ploders. No thanks.
@ Yields or Bust
+1
Not just Honahan and Elderfield but the same senior officials in DoF with current LB/FG government attended by ex political lobbyists deeply involved in the banking sector.
Next project is to fit up taxpayers with a giant replica of the ‘guarantee’; this one is for Europe, the ‘Compact’ as they look forward to further endorsements, further bailouts leading to more austerity!
But I do disagree the gentlemen in question can be classified as ‘do gooders’
@Colm
LTRO is behind this particular point in the Euro deflationary phase and the decline of M1.
When commercial banks hold more goverment debt on their books they will subtract credit deposits to pay the interest via the tax system.
Paul Ferguson idea of crediting base euros to peoples new “CB / treasury ? accounts” is a noble and wise proposition.
However it probally will not happen….. the banks wish to dig themselves out of this hole by destroying / digging the remaining rump bits of the physical economy in the interests of a idea of money which is fundamentally kleptocratic.
They have done this before…indeed after each bank credit induced recession which they call the credit cycle for some reason (its not natural).
Its just the scale of this theft that is gigantic.
They are bad to the bone.
Its time people got used to this evil.
This nice man routine is merely a routine , really it is.
On a real economy note.
Interesting passenger data on the Cork /Dublin air route for 2009 / 2010 now that we know Ryanairs dynamism cannot beat the laws of thermodynamics (has anybody got the 2011 figures ?)
Y 2009 :335,647 arrivals & departures
Y2010 :168,423 arrivals & departures.
Also has anybody got the corresponding rail passenger data for this route ?
I think the numbers on the premier route have held up because of this air passenger decline.
So therefore…
From De paper Febuary
“Despite ongoing uncertainty over state funding for major transport projects, the report proposes a major new railway station with large-scale park-and-ride facilities near the M50 as part of improved transport connections to Dublin Airport for commuters travelling from the south and west.”
It would certainly be more attractive for this Corkonian as I avoid Dublin as if it had the plague.
@ Yields or Bust
+1
Colm +1
With Elderfield and Honohan we are well on the way to ruination. Morgan was too kind to him.
@Yield or Bust
“This is despite an additional 750 staff in the CBI since Mr Elderfields arrival.”
I had no idea it has become a job creation scheme. So the gubmnt’s policies are working then.
@PR Guy
They were required so as to ensure the system was adequately supervised just about the same time the banks were either exiting the country or their size and scope was being halved. I’ve asked the question before as to what exactly these people are actually doing? We know that the current office space is supposedly inadequate so hence the rationale in buying the shell that was once Anglos new headquarters, but are we seriously to believe that all these staffers are working at optimal levels. I’m not a believer.
I know of no organisation which has increased its staffing to the tune of c60% since 2007 despite its business model suggesting its customers and their outlook shrinking at an equally rapid rate. And as suggested above they still have to employ externals to do the real analysis. Some achievment.
Talk of the HSE being a dysfunctional organisation is wide of the mark in comparison – the problem we have was born and bred in the Board rooms and lending departments of our beloved banks – all regulatory regimes no matter where they reside are after the fact models. My suggestion some while back was to insist that financial organistaions be broken down by size and complexity and those that require ongoing scrutiny should be required to have a regulatory official on site and attend all Board and related departmental meetings so we get away from after the fact regulation.
Until this happens the CBI can hire another 750 staff and it will not make an iota of difference. Blaming the Regulator for the crisis is equivalent in my eyes to blaming the Revenue Commissioners for tax evaders. That’s illogical.
Any chance of a thread on Hollande’s demand for a side order of growth to go with the main course of austerity in the fiscal compact ?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b7df3226-8edf-11e1-aa12-00144feab49a.html#axzz1srAdmpEc
It could also cover the UK’s re entry into recession thanks to Boy George’s growth through amputation strategy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/25/double-dip-recession-george-osborne
@Seafóid: Recession Revisited.
It takes a little while to stop a behometh. Titanic took 4 mile at full reverse trust. God knows what a modern 600 m container transport would need.
The dopes are still using historical data to astrolize (sic) the future economic outlook, which is utterly useless in the current predicament. But the dopes insist. Its truely maddening. The vast majority of plain folk lack the relevant knowledge and analytical skills to hold these dopes to account. Mind you, some so-called intellectual critters seem to lack awareness as well.
If ‘they’ want, need, desire, crave, ‘growth’; its rather simple. Dump all debt. Give each consumer a big wad of cash, and large credit limits on their plastic. Now we are off to the races”! 😎 Eh! Well maybe not! “What’s wrong with more debt, then?” Ah! Yes!
The CB Survey is known as ‘Busywork’ – or if you are still in school, ‘homework’. Adjectives fail to describe such behaviour.
Looking at some airport arrival / departure data.
One of the few growth routes that I can see is the Dublin / Frankfurt air route……
It was out of the Dublin airport top ten in 2009
But in 2010 it crept in at number 10 at 430,593
in 2011 it was at number 8 at 439,065.
On a bi – monthly basis the max passengers was at 2010M 07 :46,745
& 2010M 08 : 47,603
This contrasts with 42,333 & 40,899 during those summer months in 2009
47,007 & 46,603 in 2011.
Now many of these people are summer tourist passengers but why is Frankfurt perhaps one of the few growth destinations for Dublin airport during this multi year period? ….Germany is not your typical holiday destination.
Are all those CBers flying back & forth during those hot summer months ?
September and October of 2011 was also showed record numbers 41,592 40,279
This contrasts with 2010 figures of 41,295 & 38,640
Also 2009 figures of 35,850 & 34,043
They are impressive growth figures when you contrast these numbers with the collapse of passenger numbers to almost all other destinations during this multiyear period.
It perhaps paints a picture of financial engineers flying to keep their ship of credit afloat as the physical world sinks around them.
@The Dork of Cork
“One of the few growth routes that I can see is the Dublin / Frankfurt air route……”
Lots of people in financial services – not just CB’ers – use this route. Have done myself several times this year. It seems to be happening more frequently just lately that I have more German people giving me orders. Oo-er.
There’s a great little bar near the DB building in Frankfart and if you’re in there at midnight, the barmaid….. no….. let’s not go there.
@PR
With the exception of the Barmaid thingy it sound like pointless activity & expenditure of resourses.
Much prefer to see real world expenditure on rational fixed capital…..of course the Rosslare to Fishguard , Fishguard to London , London to Frankfurt train route is a bit far off at the moment.
@ Dork
I’m not a regular here but I have to commend you on your ability to dig up statistics and contextualise them.
Aside from your logic you are the most entertaining contributor to this blog and a good reason to return to it.
Thanks.
Thanks Nuts – many would disagree……..
@The DOrk
“it sound like pointless activity ”
It is (I could have conducted it by phone/email) but directors of big financial services companies love calling meetings where they can sit at the head of a table of loads of people. I believe it’s called ‘ego’