The CSO have published their first estimate of the Q2 2012 National Accounts. In line with the inherent volatility in the quarterly national accounts the overall directions from Q1 have been changed. Seasonally adjusted real GDP was flat in the quarter after a fall of 0.7% in Q1. The equivalent numbers for GNP are a quarterly rise 4.3% after a fall of 0.1% in Q1.
The Q1 2012 figures were also revised. The 1.1% quarterly drop in real GDP has been revised to a drop of 0.7%, and the 1.3% drop in GNP initially reported for Q1 has been revised to a fall of just 0.1%.
The quarterly rise in GNP is largely the result of a drop in the net outflow of Net Factor Income rather than any improvement in the domestic economy. The Balance of Payments release covers this in more detail which shows a €3.2 billion current account surplus for the quarter.
All of Consumption (-0.4%), Investment (-29.4%) and Government (-3.9%) fell in real terms in the quarter. The large drop in Investment comes after a equally large increase in Q1. All three are also below their 2011 levels.
Quarterly GDP rose because of an improvement in the balance of trade. In real term quarterly seasonally adjusted exports fell 0.5% but imports fell 5.2%.
In annual terms GDP in Q2 2012 was 1.1% lower than in the same period last year. Constant price GDP for the first half of 2012 is just 0.3% higher than for the first half of 2011.
In nominal terms both GDP (0.5%) and GNP (4.3%) rose in the quarter. Nominal GDP for the first half of 2012 is estimated to be €81.3 billion; for the equivalent period in 2011 it was €79.1 billion.