The report is available here. See also the background paper by Robert Hagemann here.
Year: 2012
Readers may be interested in the Garret FitzGerald Spring Seminar to be held at UCD on 10 and 11 of February. This is the first of an annual series of “Spring Schools” to be named in Garret FitzGerald’s honour focused on topics that were particularly close to his heart.
This year’s theme will ‘Democracy in the 21st. Century’ and the event will include an opening keynote from Mary Robinson on the evening of February 10th.
Further details can be found here. Those wishing to attend are requested to pre-book a space. Contact Mary.Buckley@ucd.ie.
Official funding runs out at the end of 2013. Today’s manouvre by the NTMA has converted some two-year debt into three-year debt, at a cost. This is not ‘getting back in the market’ in any sense which confirms debt sustanability. No new debt has been issued. The ability to sell new three- or six-month T-bills is not relevant either.
Think about Belgium. The ten-year bond yields 4%, having been briefly higher during the panic. Belgium has a debt ratio about 100%, GGB deficit about 4% and primary deficit about 1%. Belgium is likely (not certain) to be OK and could probably sell 10-year paper in some size. The 4% interest rate is just about consistent with debt sustainability given 2% inflation and a little bit of economic growth.
Ireland’s exit debt ratio will be higher, there are contingent liabilities we all know about and a deficit down to 4% in 2014 would be doing rather well. Can Ireland expect to sell 10-year bonds, in size, in 2014, at 4% yields?
There is a 2025 bond in issue with a 5.4% coupon. It will be an 11-year bond in 2014. The curve should be flat in this zone. So if you think yields on mediums will be 4% in two years time, you can work out the target price for the 2025 bond in 2014. It is about 111.
The bond has recently been trading about 85. So if you think we will be back in the market in a meaningful sense in 2014, on terms as good as Belgium, you can pick up a nice 5.4% coupon twice, and a 30% capital gain, by taking a flutter.
Alternatively you can insist that Ireland can (sustainably) ‘get back in the market’, and stay there, in size, at higher yields. This is entirely conditional on economic growth resuming quickly and at decent rates. The debt sustainability analysis in the IMF staff report to the executive board should issue in a few weeks and will be a must-read.
The draft of the new personal insolvency bill is available here.
This Friday January 27th in Croke Park we will hold a conference on the Irish Economy. This conference is one of a sequence of Dublin Economic Workshop meetings in collaboration with the Universities (in this case UCD Geary Institute and UL). The conference programme is below. Registration will begin at 8.30 on Friday morning, with the first two sessions beginning at 9am. The final panel session is expected to finish at 6pm.
A few housekeeping issues.
RSVPS. In case there are late RSVPs or cancellations, please email clare.delargy@ucd.ie. If you haven’t received confirmation of attendance, please get in touch with Clare so she can add you to list.
Getting there. The conference will take place in the Croke Park Conference centre. The centre is accessible by public transport, with Dart, Bus and Luas lines within a 15-minute walk -please see here for further details.
There is also complimentary car parking for conference attendees on a first come first served basis. The closest car park to the conference centre is the Canal car park, on St Margaret’s Avenue off the North Circular road.
Location. The conference will take place in the Hogan Mezzanine Suite. Access to the suite is through the Jones’ Street entrance to the Hogan Stand, across from the Croke Park Hotel. There will be signs directing you to the suite upon entering the stadium, and there are lifts available.
Catering. There will be coffee breaks at two stages during the day. Please note that lunch will not be provided, but you will be able to avail of catering facilities at the centre.
Social Media. There is complimentary wi-fi access at the conference centre, and for those of you on twitter, we will be using the hashtag #ieconf throughout the day. We’ll aggregate the tweets on the Irish Economy liveblog.
Irish Economy Conference Programme, Croke Park, Dublin – January 27th 2012
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0830-0900 |
Registration and Opening |
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0900-1030 |
Economic Policy and Evaluation |
Property Market |
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Chair: Donal DeButleir (IFPRC)
Tom Healy (CERU) – “Researching Alternative Economic Policies.”
Frank Convery (UCD & IFPRC) – “Doing more good than harm – economists in the public service.”
Frances Ruane (ESRI) – “Evaluation – Contextual and Methodological Challenges.”
Robert Watt (Department PER) – “Improving Policy-Making Capacity.”
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Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)
Ronan Lyons (Oxford) – “Residential Site Value Tax in Ireland: Land Values, Implementation & Revenues.”
Michelle Norris (UCD) – “Borrowers’ Pathways through Mortgage Arrears.”
Rob Kitchin (NUIM) – “Prospects for the Irish Property Market.”
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1030-1100 |
Coffee |
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1100-1230 |
Unemployment |
Demography |
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Chair: Minister Joan Burton T.D.
David Bell (Stirling) – “Unemployment in the Great Recession: More Misery for the Young?”
Aedin Doris (NUI Maynooth) – “Employment and Unemployment: What do Sectoral and Demographic Patterns Tell Us?”
Philip O’Connell (ESRI) – “The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland.”
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Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD)
Orla Doyle (UCD) – “Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy.”
Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (ESRI) – “The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults.”
Brendan Walsh (UCD) –“Well Being and Economic Conditions in Ireland.”
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1230-1330 |
Lunch
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1330-1500 |
Banking and Euro |
Economic Recovery – Can Competition, Regulation and Privatisation Help? |
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Chair: Constantin Gurdgiev (TCD)
Brian Lucey (TCD) – “Banking in Ireland – Back to the Future.”
Frank Barry (TCD) – “Rectifying Design Flaws in the Euro Project”
Karl Whelan (UCD) – “ The IBRC, ELA, Promissory Notes and All That …“
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Chair: Cathal Guiomard (CAR)
Richard Tol (Sussex) – “Energy Regulation in Ireland – Some Current Weaknesses and Lessons for Recovery.”
John Fingleton (UK Office of Fair Trading) – “Economic Growth – How Can Competition Policy Help?”
Doug Andrew (former London Airport regulator) – “Governance, Ownership and Reform.”
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1500-1530 |
Coffee |
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1530-1700 |
Fiscal Policy |
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Chair: Dan O’Brien (Irish Times)
Philip Lane (TCD) – “Ireland and The Fiscal Compact.”
John McHale (NUIG) – “Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions.”
Seamus Coffey (UCC) – “Current and Capital Expenditure: Getting the Balance Right.”
Colm McCarthy (UCD) – “Public Capital Investment and Fiscal Stabilization.”
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1700-1800 |
Panel Session on Irish Economy
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