Archive for the ‘Crisis Conference’ Category

Irish Economic Policy Conference 2014: Economic Policy after the Bailout

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Tuesday, January 14th, 2014

Organised jointly by the ESRI, Dublin Economic Workshop, UL, and UCD’s Geary Institute, this year’s policy conference (see previous years here and here) will be on the theme of economic policy after the bailout. This conference brings policy makers, politicians, civil servants and academics together to address this question of national importance. The venue will be the Institute of Bankers in the IFSC. (Click here for a map).


Date: 31st January 2013

Venue: Institute of Bankers, IFSC

Programme

9:15 – 10:45: Plenary: The Impact of the Crisis on Industrial Relations

Chair: Aedín Doris (NUI Maynooth)

  • Kieran Mulvey (Labour Relations Commission) Prospects for Pay and Industrial Relations in the Irish Economy
  • Shay Cody (IMPACT Trade Union) “The impact of the crisis on industrial relations – a public service focus”
  • Michelle O’Sullivan/Tom Turner (University of Limerick) “The Crisis and Implications for Precarious Employment’”

10.45-11.15: Coffee Break

11:15 – 12:45: 2A. Migration and the Labour Market

Chair: Philip O’Connell (UCD Geary Institute)

  • Piaras MacÉinrí (UCC) ‘Beyond the choice v constraint debate: some key findings from a recent representative survey on emigration’
  • Peter Muhlau (TCD) “Social ties and the labour market integration of Polish migrants in Ireland and Germany”
  • Alan Barrett (ESRI & TCD) and Irene Mosca (TCD) “The impact of an adult child’s emigration on the mental health of an older parent”

2B. Economics: Teaching and Practice

Chair: Ronan Gallagher (Dept of Public Expenditure and Reform)

  • Brian Lucey (TCD): “Finance Education Before and After the Crash”
  • Liam Delaney (Stirling): “Graduate Economics Education”
  • Jeffrey Egan (McGraw-Hill Education) “The commercial interest in Third Level Education”

12:45 – 1:45: Lunch Break

1:45 – 3:15: 3A. Health and Recovery

Chair: Alex White, TD, Minister of State

  • David Madden (UCD) “Health and Wealth on the Roller-Coaster: Ireland 2003-2011”
  • Charles Normand TCD) and Anne Nolan (TCD & ESRI) “The impact of the economic crisis on health and the health system in Ireland”
  • Paul Gorecki (ESRI) ‘Pricing Pharmaceuticals: Has Public Policy Delivered?”

3B. Fiscal Policy

Chair: Stephen Donnelly TD

  • Seamus Coffey (UCC) “The continuing constraints on Irish fiscal policy”
  • Diarmuid Smyth (IFAC) ‘IFAC: Formative years and the future’
  • Rory O’Farrell, (NERI) “Supplying solutions in demanding times: the effects of various fiscal measures”

3:15 – 3:30: Coffee Break

3:30 – 5:00: Plenary: Debt, Default and Banking System Design

Chair: Fiona Muldoon (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Gregory Connor (NUI Maynooth) “An Economist’s Perspective on the Quality of Irish Bank Assets”
  • Kieran McQuinn and Yvonne McCarthy (Central Bank of Ireland) “Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market”
  • Colm McCarthy “Designing a Banking System for Economic Recovery”
  • Ronan Lyons (TCD) “Household expectations and the housing market: from bust to boom???”

This conference receives no funding, so we have to charge to cover expenses like room hire, tea and coffee. The registration fee is €20, but free for students. Please click here or on the link below to pay the fee, then register by attaching your payment confirmation to an e-mail with your name and affiliation to emma.barron@ucd.ie. [Block bookings can be made by purchasing the required number of registrations and then sending the list of names to emma.barron@ucd.ie]

Please click here to pay the registration fee.

Crisis Conference Liveblog

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Thursday, January 31st, 2013

Hash tag is #ieconf. Conference programme is here. Tweets/comments will be moderated throughout the day. If your browser isn’t displaying the liveblog in this post, click here to use the liveblog’s interface.

Special issue on the politics of adjustment

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Thursday, January 31st, 2013

The current issue of Intereconomics has a series of stories about the politics of adjustment in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Niamh Hardiman and Aidan Regan discuss the Irish case. It’s well worth reading all of the cases for those of us engaged in the current debate, to see similarities and differences in the approaches. It’ll help those of us (read: me) engaged in teaching this stuff as well.

Niamh will also be speaking on this theme at tomorrow’s Irish Economy conference.

Conference on Irish Economic Policy Programme

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Monday, January 28th, 2013

Conference on Irish Economic Policy

Institute of Bankers, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1

February 1st

On February 1st 2013, the Dublin Economics Workshop, in conjunction with Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Department of Economics at the University of Limerick (UL) and the Geary Institute at UCD is hosting a conference on Irish economy policy at the Institute of Bankers.

The conference will explore current issues in economic policy in key areas:  Education and Children, Industrial Policy, Unemployment/Social Protection, Economics and Evaluation, and the Political Economy of Austerity. The outline programme is set out below.

The conference aims to provide a forum for discussion of new ideas on the conduct of Irish economic policy, including the extent to which economics and related disciplines can make a greater contribution to the conduct of economic policy in Ireland, and the extent to which policy can be designed more effectively. The speakers and chairs come from a range of institutions and disciplines and there also be online access to presentations to ensure to enable debate through blogs and twitter.  There is no charge for the conference. Coffee will be provided free of charge mid-morning and there will be a break at 12.45 to enable participants to take lunch.

To register for the conference, please email: emma.barron@ucd.ie . Advance registration is essential for attendance at the conference, i.e., is required for entry to the facilities.

9.15- 9.45

Registration and Opening

9.45-10.45

1. Education and Children

2. Industrial Policy

CHAIR: Minister Frances Fitzgerald (D/Children and Youth Affairs)

1. Orla Doyle (UCD/Geary) Experimental Evidence on the Early Effectiveness of Intervention in Childhood

2. Emer Smyth (ESRI) School factors and student outcomes: insights from longitudinal research

CHAIR:  Declan Hughes (Forfás)

1. Donal Palcic & Eoin Reeves (UL) Privatisation: past performance and prospects.

2. Fergal McCann SMEs in Ireland: Contributions, Credit and Economic Crisis (Central Bank)

10.45-11.15

Coffee

11:15-12:45

3. The Labour Market

4. Economics and Evaluation

CHAIR: John McKeon (D/Social Protection)

1. Eilish Kelly (ESRI), Seamus McGuiness (ESRI), Philip O’Connell (UCD/Geary) Activation in Ireland: Are we on the Right Path?

2. Bryan Fanning (UCD) Why did Ireland become so open to immigration?

3. Frank Walsh (UCD) The union wage premium in Ireland

CHAIR: Frances Ruane  (ESRI)

1. Ronnie Downes (D/Public Expenditure and Reform) Economics & Evaluation in the Public Service – Capacity and Commitment?

2. Gail Birkbeck (Atlantic Philantrophies) Evaluating Services and Expenditures in the Social sector

3. Helena Lenihan (UL), Evaluating the impact of enterprise/industrial policy supports: developing new methods and approaches

12.45-14.00

Lunch Break

14.00-16.00

Plenary Session: Political Economy of Austerity

CHAIR: Robert Watt (D/Public Expenditure and Reform)

1. Niamh Hardiman (UCD) The politics of austerity budgets

2. Michael Taft  (UNITE) The Great Stagnation

3. Frank Barry (TCD), European Integration and Austerity

4. Colm McCarthy, Dubrovnik International University, What Kind of Banking Union for the Eurozone?

(We’ll be updating the conference programme as provisional titles come in).

Friday Conference: Demography Session

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Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

The podcast and slides from the session on demography at the Friday conference are below.

Podcast

Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD)

Orla Doyle (UCD)
Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy

Alan Barrett (ESRI/TCD)
The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults

Brendan Walsh (UCD)
Well-being and Economic Conditions in Ireland

Final Programme for Irish Economy Conference

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Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

This Friday January 27th in Croke Park we will hold a conference on the Irish Economy. This conference is one of a sequence of Dublin Economic Workshop meetings in collaboration with the Universities (in this case UCD Geary Institute and UL). The conference programme is below. Registration will begin at 8.30 on Friday morning, with the first two sessions beginning at 9am. The final panel session is expected to finish at 6pm.

A few housekeeping issues.

RSVPS. In case there are late RSVPs or cancellations, please email clare.delargy@ucd.ie. If you haven’t received confirmation of attendance, please get in touch with Clare so she can add you to list.

Getting there. The conference will take place in the Croke Park Conference centre. The centre is accessible by public transport, with Dart, Bus and Luas lines within a 15-minute walk -please see here for further details.

There is also complimentary car parking for conference attendees on a first come first served basis. The closest car park to the conference centre is the Canal car park, on St Margaret’s Avenue off the North Circular road.

Location. The conference will take place in the Hogan Mezzanine Suite. Access to the suite is through the Jones’ Street entrance to the Hogan Stand, across from the Croke Park Hotel. There will be signs directing you to the suite upon entering the stadium, and there are lifts available.

Catering. There will be coffee breaks at two stages during the day. Please note that lunch will not be provided, but you will be able to avail of catering facilities at the centre.

Social Media. There is complimentary wi-fi access at the conference centre, and for those of you on twitter, we will be using the hashtag #ieconf throughout the day. We’ll aggregate the tweets on the Irish Economy liveblog.

Irish Economy Conference Programme, Croke Park, Dublin – January 27th 2012

0830-0900

Registration and Opening

0900-1030

Economic Policy and Evaluation

Property Market

Chair: Donal DeButleir (IFPRC)

Tom Healy (CERU) – “Researching Alternative Economic Policies.”

Frank Convery (UCD & IFPRC) – “Doing more good than harm – economists in the public service.”

Frances Ruane (ESRI) – “Evaluation – Contextual  and Methodological Challenges.”

Robert Watt (Department PER) – “Improving Policy-Making Capacity.”

Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)

Ronan Lyons (Oxford) – “Residential Site Value Tax in Ireland: Land Values, Implementation & Revenues.”

Michelle Norris (UCD) – “Borrowers’ Pathways through Mortgage Arrears.”

Rob Kitchin (NUIM) – “Prospects for the Irish Property Market.”

1030-1100

Coffee

1100-1230

Unemployment

Demography

Chair: Minister Joan Burton T.D.

David Bell (Stirling) – “Unemployment in the Great Recession: More Misery for the Young?”

Aedin Doris (NUI Maynooth) – “Employment and Unemployment: What do Sectoral and Demographic Patterns Tell Us?”

Philip O’Connell (ESRI) – “The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland.”

Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD)

Orla Doyle (UCD) – “Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy.”

Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (ESRI) – “The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults.”

Brendan Walsh (UCD) –“Well Being and Economic Conditions in Ireland.”

1230-1330

Lunch

1330-1500

Banking and Euro

Economic Recovery – Can Competition, Regulation and Privatisation Help?

Chair: Constantin Gurdgiev (TCD)

Brian Lucey (TCD) – “Banking in Ireland – Back to the Future.”

Frank Barry (TCD) – “Rectifying Design Flaws in the Euro Project”

Karl Whelan (UCD) – The IBRC, ELA, Promissory Notes and All That …

Chair: Cathal Guiomard (CAR)

Richard Tol (Sussex) – “Energy Regulation in Ireland – Some Current Weaknesses and Lessons for Recovery.”

John Fingleton (UK Office of Fair Trading) – “Economic Growth – How Can Competition Policy Help?”

Doug Andrew (former London Airport regulator) – “Governance, Ownership and Reform.”

1500-1530

Coffee

1530-1700

Fiscal Policy

Chair: Dan O’Brien (Irish Times)

Philip Lane (TCD) – “Ireland and The Fiscal Compact.”

John McHale (NUIG) – “Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions.”

Seamus Coffey (UCC) – “Current and Capital Expenditure: Getting the Balance Right.”

Colm McCarthy (UCD) – “Public Capital Investment and Fiscal Stabilization.”

1700-1800

Panel Session on Irish Economy

Jan 27th Conference on Irish Economy – UPDATE

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Friday, January 13th, 2012

Just an update on the planned conference on the economy, part of a sequence of Dublin Economic Workshop meetings in collaboration with the Universities (in this case UCD Geary Institute and UL).

Firstly – venue.   We had planned a city hotel but (a) demand, and (b) lack of appropriate supply, has caused us problems.   So we are pleased to have booked the Conference Centre at Croke Park for the event.  Details on the venue are here – parking (lots), transport (lots) and wifi too for your iPads.

Secondly – RSVPs.   Thanks for those that replied to emma.barron@ucd.ie to give your details.   If you have, you are DEFINITELY on the list (just the volume of response means that Emma has not managed to reply to all, plus she was perhaps going to have to cull the list due to capacity issues (she has a black belt – I kid you not!)).   Due to her efforts at getting the venue we are fine and in fact would like to encourage more of you to come along – again RSVP to Emma.   One favour – if you do RSVP, come along.  While this is free to all to attend, it is not free for the organizers so we may be able to adjust the rooms booked etc.   Also, while we will DEFINITELY NOT be providing lunch but there will be some catering on the day (coffee etc) so it would be great to have pretty clear figures for all of that stuff.

Thirdly – webcasting etc.   We will record and upload after the event – youtube and through the Geary Institute iTunes ‘channel’.   We hope to webcast live but not certain at this point.   We will set a hashtag on twitter and will use the Institute twitter account on the day (@ucdgearyinst) to encourage interaction from those who can’t make it, from those outside the country etc.

Finally – latest draft of the programme is below.  We will update titles etc as we go along.

Thanks again for the patience and the support – RSVP please to emma.barron@ucd.ie, and see you there!

DEW Conference on Irish Economic Policy

Croke Park Conference Centre, Dublin, January 27th 2012

0830-0900

Registration and Opening

0900-1030

Economic Policy and Evaluation

Property Market

Chair: Donal DeButleir (IFPRC)

Robert Watt (Department PER)

Tom Healy (CERU)

Frances Ruane (ESRI)

Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)

Ronan Lyons (Oxford) – “Residential Site Value Tax in Ireland: Land Values, Implementation & Revenues.”

Michelle Norris (UCD)

Rob Kitchin (NUIM) – “Prospects for the Irish Property Market.”

1030-1100

Coffee

1100-1230

Unemployment

Demography

Chair: Minister Joan Burton T.D.

David Bell (Stirling)

Aedin Doris (Maynooth)

Philip O’Connell (ESRI) – “The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland.”

Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD)

Orla Doyle (UCD) – “Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy.”

Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (ESRI) – “The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults.”

Brendan Walsh (UCD) –“Well Being and Economic Conditions in Ireland.”

1230-1330

Lunch

1330-1500

Banking and Euro

Economic Recovery – Can Competition, Regulation and Privatisation Help?

Chair: Constantin Gurdgiev (TCD)

Brian Lucey (TCD) – “Banking in Ireland – Back to the Future.”

Frank Barry (TCD) – “Rectifying Design Flaws in the Euro Project”

Karl Whelan (UCD) – “Scenarios for the Euro Crisis.”

Chair: Cathal Guiomard (CAR)

Richard Tol (Sussex) – “Energy Regulation in Ireland – Some Current Weaknesses and Lessons for Recovery.”

John Fingleton (UK Office of Fair Trading) – “Economic Growth – How Can Competition Policy Help?”

Doug Andrew (former London Airport regulator) – “Governance, Ownership and Reform.”

1500-1530

Coffee

1530-1700

Fiscal Policy

Chair: Dan O’Brien (Irish Times)

Philip Lane (TCD) – “The Fiscal Responsibility Bill.”

John McHale (NUIG) – “Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions.”

Seamus Coffey (UCC) – “Current and Capital Expenditure: Getting the Balance Right.”

Colm McCarthy (UCD) – “Public Capital Investment and Fiscal Stabilization.”

1700-1800

Panel Session on Irish Economy

Ajay Chopra’s Kenmare Address

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Saturday, October 15th, 2011

Thanks to Patrick at Dublin Chamber of Commerce, here is a link to Mr Chopra’s address tonight at DEW Kenmare.

Click here to listen to the talk, it’s about 30 minutes long.

Here’s the text of the speech from the IMF.

And in other news, we may have another solution to Ireland’s economic crisis that takes full account of our constrained funding position.

The Irish Economic Situation: Hopeless, but not Serious

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Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

In Billy Wilder’s classic movie “One, Two, Three” James Cagney plays a hard-charging marketing executive coaching his clueless son-in-law on the correct answers to give during an important job interview.  The son-in-law is told to describe the current international situation as “serious, but not hopeless,” but during the job interview he mangles this and describes it as “hopeless, but not serious.”  The interviewer is impressed with his originality and insight.  The same mangled answer might apply to the current Irish economic situation: hopeless, but not serious. The corner has been turned. The Irish economy will now experience a slow, steady recovery as the IMF-guided programme unwinds the deep structural flaws that developed in the Irish economy during the credit-fueled bubble of 2002-2007. (more…)

‘Regulation in the Age of Crisis’

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Thursday, June 10th, 2010

An international and interdisciplinary conference on regulatory governance is being held at UCD next week, 17-19 June, under the auspices of the European Consortium of Political Research Standing Group on Regulatory Governance. There will be more than 200 papers presented. Streams include 8 panels on regulation and the financial crisis, and also streams on regulating for sustainability, the politics of regulation, the governance of risk and technology regulation, non-state regulation and regulating network industries. A variety of disciplines are represented, including political science, socio-legal studies, business and economics. The programme, including details of registration, is available on the conference website. The conference papers are being uploaded to this site also and are freely available.

DEW Conference – November 2nd

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Friday, October 23rd, 2009
The third in the series of Dublin Economics Workshop meetings on the Irish economy will take place on November 2nd at the Radission SAS Hotel, Golden Lane, Dublin 2.   The programme details are as follows:
1300 Registration
Session 1
Chair and Discussant – John Fitzgerald (ESRI)
1330-1415 David Blanchflower (Dartmouth) - What Should Be Done About Rising Unemployment?
1415-1445 Colm Harmon (UCD) - Education and Innovation Strategies
1445-1515 Discussion and Q&A
1515-1530 Coffee Break
Session 2
Chair and Discussant – Colm McCarthy (UCD)
1530-1600 John McHale (NUIG) - The Other Crisis:  Whither Irish Pensions?
1600-1630 Philip Lane (TCD) - Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland
1630-1700 DIscussion and Q&A
Please RSVP to emma.barron@ucd.ie (many thanks to those who have already done so!).  We are looking forward to a full house and a lively meeting.

ESRI Budget Perspectives 2010 conference

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Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

This ESRI conference is taking place this morning.

The new Governor Patrick Honohan delivered an opening address which provides an interesting analysis of the Irish economic and fiscal situation: his speech is here.

The ESRI has also released its new quarterly forecast: here.

The conference also features a number of research papers, which can be found here.

In addition,  there was a roundtable on the Commission on Taxation Report: my contribution to that roundtable is available here.

DEW Conference – November 2nd 2009, Dublin

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Sunday, August 23rd, 2009

Event: Third DEW Policy Conference

Venue: Radisson SAS Royal Hotel, Golden Lane, Dublin (http://www.radissonblu.ie/royalhotel-dublin/location)

Date and Time: November 2nd, 2pm to 5.30pm

The third DEW conference will take place on November 2nd between 2pm and 5.30pm in the Radisson SAS Royal Hotel, Golden Lane in Dublin city centre. The conference continues the general themes from previous events surrounding the Irish economic position. Speakers to include David Blanchflower (Dartmouth College), Colm Harmon (UCD), John McHale (NUIG), Patrick Honohan (TCD), Karl Whelan (UCD). A full agenda will be posted on this site in September and at the UCD Geary Institute and Irish Economic Association sites.

Due to the usual issues of venue size and logistics we would appreciate if people could register as soon as possible by emailing emma.barron@ucd.ie

Patrick Honohan at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

(Many thanks to Karl Deeter, for filming the event and editing the footage.)

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Philip R. Lane at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Colm McCarthy at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Brian Nolan at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Karl Whelan at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

John Fitz Gerald at the TCD-DEW Conference: Irish Economic Policy for the Crisis: What’s Next?

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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Crisis Policy Conference programme, 20th May

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Monday, May 11th, 2009

Trinity College Dublin
(Department of Economics and IIIS)
and the
Dublin Economics Workshop

Conference

IRISH ECONOMIC POLICY FOR THE CRISIS: WHAT’S NEXT?

J.M. Synge Lecture Theatre (Room 2039), Arts Building,
Trinity College Dublin
Wednesday 20th May, 2009

PROGRAMME

Session 1: 1.30-3.30

Chair: Jim O’Brien, Second Secretary General, Department of Finance

John Fitz Gerald (ESRI) on Competitiveness
Karl Whelan (UCD) on Potential Output
Brian Nolan (UCD) on Inequality

Session 2: 4:00-6:00

Chair: John McHale, Queens University, Canada & NUIG

Colm McCarthy (UCD) on Pensions
Philip R. Lane (Trinity College Dublin) on Fiscal Policy
Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin) on Banks
(more…)

Update on May 20th Conference

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Monday, April 20th, 2009

Due to the high level of interest, we have reached room capacity for this conference.  If you would like to join the wait list, please email

tcdconference at irisheconomy.ie

Another crisis conference — mark your diaries

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Friday, April 3rd, 2009

Since the very timely and successful event organized by Colm McCarthy on January 12, the economic crisis in Ireland have evolved significantly. We’ve had the nationalization of Anglo Irish Bank, the break-down (and relaunch) of the partnership talks, the pension levy, the announcement of next week’s supplementary budget and a steady stream of deteriorating macroeconomic statistics.

No wonder Philip Lane and I feel a follow-up conference coming on.

We’re planning to cover not only the evolving medium term fiscal and growth prospects, but also the impact of the recession on inequality. We’ll also catch up on banking developments since January.

In addition to the organizers, confirmed speakers include John FitzGerald, Brian Nolan and Karl Whelan.

In order to give the budget time to be digested, we’re scheduling the event for the afternoon of Wednesday, May 20th. TCD will host. So mark your diaries now.

As with Colm’s event, it will be under the auspices of the Dublin Economics Workshop, free and open to all, but registration will be required. Send an email to tcdconference@irisheconomy.ie to book your place.

Where is Ireland’s Tax Burden Heading?

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Saturday, January 17th, 2009

In my discussion at Monday’s conference (slides here), I raised the question of where Ireland’s tax burden was going to settle down once the public finances have been stabilized. The Addendum to the Stability Report published last week by the Department of Finance shows how the Gross Budget Balance can be brought back to a deficit of 2.5% by 2013 through an adjustment process in which the revenue share of GDP stays roughly stable so that almost all of the adjustment occurs on the Revenue side. The document itself does not comment on the composition of the adjustment described in this table, so perhaps this isn’t an actual plan but instead an illustrative example. Still, it’s worth starting with as a baseline for discussing where we are heading.

I noted on Monday that the plan projects a government revenue share of GDP of 34% in 2013 and that this is well below the equivalent share for EU15 countries, which has been stable at about 45% for a number of years. A number of observers at the conference questioned this calculation on the grounds that the calculation should be done relative to GNP. In particular, since GDP has been about 17% higher than GNP in recent years, one might want to adjust the tax share upwards by this amount. Doing so would give a figure for 2013 of about 41.5%. This is still a reasonable amount lower than the EU15 average but not nearly as much as the figures I quoted

However, I do not view this higher GNP-based figure as a useful one, for two reasons.

First, I believe that GDP rather than GNP should be viewed as the correct tax base when making calculations of this sort. GDP represents all the income generated in this country and, technically, all of it is available to be taxed by the Irish government at whatever rate it chooses. Of course, profit income generated by multinational corporations is likely to move elsewhere if we tax it at a sufficiently high rate but this is an issue faced by all governments, not just our own.

Second, if one is going to exclude the substantial factor income repatriated abroad (€28 billion in 2007) from the tax base it is not consistent to then include the taxes earned on this income in the measure of the tax burden. Assuming that the €28 billion figure represents corporate profits repatriated after paying the 12.5% corporate tax rate, one comes up with a figure of €4.1 billion in taxes paid by multinationals on repatriated profits. Excluding tax payments of this magnitude would give a 2013 (adjusted) tax share of GNP of 39%. So, even if one agreed with the idea of GNP as the tax base, an internally-consistent calculation of the Irish tax burden would still leave it well below the European average.

The broader and more important point here is that we need a wider debate about the shape of future fiscal adjustment than the one currently taking place, which focuses almost without exception on the need to reduce public sector pay.

Morgan Kelly’s slides from the conference

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Thursday, January 15th, 2009

You can download the PDF from here.

Alan Ahearne’s slides from the conference

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Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

AhearneCrisis

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business irish economy

Colm McCarthy’s slides for the conference

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Monday, January 12th, 2009

McCarthy Crisis

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Business irish economy

Philip Lane’s paper for the conference

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Monday, January 12th, 2009

Lane Crisis

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Business irish economy

Patrick Honohan’s paper for the conference

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Sunday, January 11th, 2009

HonohanCrisis

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Business irish economy

Conference: Ciaran O’Hagan Slides

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Sunday, January 11th, 2009

OHaganCrisis

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Business irish economy

Papers/Presentations for the ‘Responding to the Crisis’ Conference

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Sunday, January 11th, 2009

Hello,  the conference website will include links to those papers/presentations that are made available from the authors.  I will also embed these papers directly on the blog.