New CSO Data Releases Post author By Philip Lane Post date December 19, 2013 Balance of International Payments Q3 2013 Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2013 Categories In Uncategorized 12 Comments on New CSO Data Releases ← Winter 2013 Issue of ESR → NEO 12 replies on “New CSO Data Releases” Stronger than expected rise in GDP , at 1.5%, following revised 1% advance in q2 brings total increase from cycle low in late 2009 to 4%. Domestic demand grew strongly in the quarter, driven by capital formation, although it is curious that government spending has actually risen year to date and has outpaced consumer spending. Annual GDP growth in 2013 may still be around zero but strong carryover now looks likely into 2014. The monies paid out in profit and interest to the owners of non-resident investments in Ireland is falling this year so GNP is outpacing GDP. Some prefer the latter measure but commentators switching from one to the other should not be acceptable @Dan Mclaughlin — If there is a good explainable reason for switching between GDP vs. GNP growth rates as a benchmark (e.g., the patent cliff) isn’t it ok to switch in that case, with appropriate caveats? Otherwise one industry having a particular explainable event distorts the overall picture. My letter in today’s Irish Times comments on this switching: So, having used GDP as a key economic index throughout the boom, the ESRI appears to have switched to GNP because multinational profits are faltering (Home News, December 18th). Does that mean that, to be consistent, we should also use debt/GNP (currently 151 per cent) rather than than Debt/GDP (124 per cent) as a key index and do we start measuring per capita prosperity using GNP (€29,600) rather than GDP (€36,900) . Gregory, The patent cliff is a temporary phenomenon. Pharma output is on the cusp of swinging the other way now as new biologics are launched by Amgen and then Regeneron. Irish GDP and GNP post extremely impressive Q3 figures, and we get four comments in response? Lemme guess, everyone else is too busy chasing imaginary burning bondholders? Eoin, fair comment. A comment was rejected for some reason. So I put it in a blog post: http://www.finfacts-blog.com/2013/12/a-changed-new-year-outlook-for-ireland.html MH, In your downbeat assessment of the pharma industry & it’s implications for Ireland you ignore three projects approved or announced in 2013 which total close on 1bn. You also take no account of recent approvals and launches of biologic drugs for Hep C, MS, plus impending approvals for diabetes , cholesterol. Most of these are paradigm changes & some of these will be manufactured in Ireland. In addition the parent for a very big drug manufactured here has been extended to 2023 . Tull Please specify the drugs you refer too. The game has changed for pharma, mee-too, analogues without comparative superiority data are getting prices reflecting the benefit and if there is no benefit vs generic then most assessment bodies will not grant reimbursement above those prices. Licences are limited in use such as the Hep C you mention, many arguments on cholesterol lowering have moved to the LDL HDL ratio’s and previous trials have failed show the benefit of lowering the much maligned LDL. I would have the enitirely opposite opinion on pharma exports as patents from the 8 of the world’s 10 top selling drugs manufactured here continue to lose patent protection @ Tullmcadoo The Wall Street Journal reported this week that of 271 drugs launched since 2006, only 13 have achieved yearly US sales of more than $1 billion down from 33 of 257 drugs introduced during the previous five years, according to ZS Associates. The sales and marketing management consultant to drug makers analyzed about 500 drug launches. Drugs launched between 2006 and 2010 averaged $143 million in annual US sales three years after going on the market, down from $208 million in the previous five-year period. As a result, it likely will be more difficult for drug makers than expected to overcome the big hit they are suffering from generic competition for previous blockbusters. Drugs with nearly $100 billion in US sales are expected to lose patent protection between 2011 and 2015. The Journal says that drug makers are finding it hard to convince doctors, patients and insurers to pay premium prices for drugs that are claimed to be improvements on existing ones. Separately, a US study published in 2009 found that biologic drugs cost 22 times traditional ones and treatments that cost $100,000 or more pa are not uncommon. So it’s not a good time for sticker shock. The drugs industry which has paid $20 billion in fraud fines since 2006 is also under pressure on sales practices and following an investigation in China, GSK has said it will end kickbacks for doctors. The companies spend most on R&D but even though FDA approvals in recent years have risen, failures remain high. Pale Rider, I would agree with you on small molecules and me too drugs. The game is probably up for these products and for the companies that manufacture them. There are some cuts to come in the manufacturing footprint making these in Ireland. We have seen recent announcements from Merck and Wyeth, I believe. But that is not the whole story. Pipelines are filling up again with novel high priced biologics in oncology. Companies involved here include BMS, MRK, JNJ and LLY. Some of these will be made in Ireland. We have seen new approvals for Oral HepC by GILD. I have no idea if this will be manufactured here. Amgen has a range of injectable products launched or soon to be launched. What is the plant in Dun Laoghaire for? LLY has a pipeline in diabetes and oncology and it committed 300m in CAPEX to Cork. Regeneron is a growth company with approved bio logics for eye disease and PCSk9. Any idea why it commits to 200m in CAPEX to Limerick? What about Pfizer’s Prevnar and the Enbrel manufacturing in Grangecastle? Money to be made in Irish bonds also! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/20/euro-bonds-returns-idUSL6N0JW37Q20131220 Comments are closed.