14 replies on “Letter from Minister Noonan to Irish Fiscal Advisory Council responding to the council’s November 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report”
On the choice of words used:
8 x welcome;
9 x note;
2 x noted;
0 x accept;
0 x reject;
and as for ‘finely balanced,’ this euphemism has the dexterity to cloak wisdom, cluelesness or recklessness đ
The paragraph refering to the Banks capital assessments next year is interesting.
I just wonder how does the DoF know that there is ‘no evidence that the EBA stress tests will result in no further capital rerquirements’. Does the DoF have access to the EBA methodologies or assumptions? If so perhaps they could share them with us.
The implication here is that even if the EBA indicate money is required then the DoF believe the banks will be able to fill the boat without recourse to the taxpayer – how logical does this seem if the EBA suggests that many other European banking boats also have many holes of their own- one would have thought that in that scenario the capital markets would do what they do best and that is to run a mile from the most indebted and that’s us folks.
So I’d be much more cautious on how this could eventually pan out. Don’t rule out the capital rules being loosened to allow for a fudge come next Autumn.
From the reply..
“..While there is no evidence that the European Banking Authority stress tests in 2014 will result in additional capital requirements for Irish banks, it
has been suggested in some quarters that the Irish taxpayer should be the first port of call should any capital requirements surface. This is not the case. The Irish banks have a number of options open to them if they need to raise capital in the future. Access to capital markets be it debt or equity for the banks is far better now than it has been for a number of
years as evidenced by the increase in Bank of Irelandâs share price in recent months, the disposal of the Stateâs preference shares in Bank of Ireland, and the disposal of contingent convertible notes (CoCos) in that institution earlier this year. The ESM is another potential source of capital for banks and there is still considerable negotiation to take place at
Eurogroup to agree the terms of that facility which will be available after the Single Supervisory Mechanism has been put in place…”
I could be mistaken but I don’t believe the EBA tests scheduled for next Autumn and the recent BSA under the Troika arrangements are one and the same thing.
The EBA assessments are a Euro wide arrnagement whereas the BSA were a requirement for us under the ECB leg of the Troika funding arrangement.
The tests next Autumn may well result in similar findings however as far I can see no assumptions have been published by the EBA so I’m at a loss to know how the DoF can be so definitive that we will be ok particularly given that the mortgage disaster is worse here than probably anywhere else given that our house prices and attached mortgages got so out of whack relative to any other Eurozone country.
The party theme for New Yearâs Eve at Casselmanâs, a popular nightspot in downtown Denver, was the end of Prohibition. Guests dressed up as flappers and mobsters. The Untouchables, starring Robert De Niro as Al Capone, played on TV screens above the bar. The references were all to the demise of alcohol prohibition in 1933, but the real occasion was the end of the ban on another substance. As of midnight on New Yearâs Day 2014 â also known as âGreen Wednesdayâ â recreational marijuana is legal in the state of Colorado.
[…] California was the first state to approve the sale of medical marijuana in 1996; since then, 18 other US states and the District of Columbia have done the same.
Washington State legalised recreational weed at the same time as Colorado, but sales will not begin there until the summer. As the first state to introduce a regulated recreational retail market, Colorado represents a test-bed for the rest of the US â and the world.
Blind Biddy is in Denver for the new year ….. hokkah_ed up with the one-eyed Shia Sheik …
@Ministers Noonan, Shatter & O’Reilly
Take note …
âNot many people will stand up and defend prohibition as a good policy,â Mr Elliot said. âWeâve had a 40-year drug war, spent a trillion dollars and what do we have to show for it? Marijuana is universally available, we have the highest incarceration rate in the world, and sales have been dominated by people who use violence to sell drugs, just like Al Capone did during alcohol prohibition. But now weâre creating accountable, transparent businesses.â
@ David O’Donnell
Uruguay is The Economist’s country of 2013:
Uruguay, which also, uniquely, passed a law to legalise and regulate the production, sale and consumption of cannabis. This is a change so obviously sensible, squeezing out the crooks and allowing the authorities to concentrate on graver crimes, that no other country has made it. If others followed suit, and other narcotics were included, the damage such drugs wreak on the world would be drastically reduced.
This would surely be too much for the old men who run Ireland.
@YoB correct and agreed you can only hope the next recap next works out like TARP and Spain,but….
The reality is either fudge the tests and/or recap or wind it down,its a zombie bank,id be rather cautious having too much cash at PTSB to put it mildly.
Regarding weed or dope,in NY for past few years its always been widely and easily available including delivery,everyone has digits.
The biggest change is the ‘menu’ and amount of THC, in that instead of mexican dirt weed or crap canadian weed,you have a much larger more gourmet selection,its sold by the ounce or bigger ‘weight’ depending on your connections.I spend quite a bit time in Montauk,Long Island,its ubiquitous out there and also in Aspen.Its become way more socially acceptable,quite a lot off people use vaporizers,as someone who does not touch alcohol,pills or powders,the law change its welcome but as with all things in moderation…getting ‘baked’ all the time and being around people like that is kinda boring as is the glamourising of it and the stoner lifestyle.
@ YoB
there is no evidence that the EBA stress tests will indicate fresh recapitalisation requiurements simply because we do not know what the EBA stress tests will conclude, or even the basis (ie macro assumptions) which they will use to support the stress tests. Its a pretty simple and factucal statement. Lots of people on here seem to “know” that the banks will need more capital, without really explaining in any specific detail just why this is the case.
@BEB,happy new year Mr. Bond:)
“The outlook for Permanent TSB would appear bleak unless its restructuring plan is accepted by the commission. The Irish Examiner revealed in March that the Central Bank had been looking at different scenarios in the event an Irish bank fails the stress tests.
One of these included turning one of the three institutions into a winddown bank. Toxic assets from the other domestic banks could be transferred to this bank. It is believed the plan has found little support, particularly from the Department of Finance. However, if PTSBâs restructuring plan is rejected by the commission, could this be looked at again? ”
Minor point: The old men who ‘THINK’ they run Ireland.
Many MS, AS, and Cancer sufferers are still ‘waiting’ for a refined pharma version to be made available. And quite a few of these have been before the courts …..
On the heroin ‘scourge’, which is now countrywide, lessons may be learned from Portugal ….
I have previously requested on this blog – the economic scale of the GANG led drug ‘business’ …. no economist has responded. Or the Police costs – or the cost to the HSE. Power? Profit? Social Justice? or Cowardice?
@JG
Ta for update on the Big Apple.
@ DOD why don’t they simply grow it,plenty free time,doubt the guards arrest them,is this another ancedote ?
One day at a time David,one day…what’s a ounce of clean high grade grass,your end go for,is it easy to get?
14 replies on “Letter from Minister Noonan to Irish Fiscal Advisory Council responding to the council’s November 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report”
On the choice of words used:
8 x welcome;
9 x note;
2 x noted;
0 x accept;
0 x reject;
and as for ‘finely balanced,’ this euphemism has the dexterity to cloak wisdom, cluelesness or recklessness đ
The paragraph refering to the Banks capital assessments next year is interesting.
I just wonder how does the DoF know that there is ‘no evidence that the EBA stress tests will result in no further capital rerquirements’. Does the DoF have access to the EBA methodologies or assumptions? If so perhaps they could share them with us.
The implication here is that even if the EBA indicate money is required then the DoF believe the banks will be able to fill the boat without recourse to the taxpayer – how logical does this seem if the EBA suggests that many other European banking boats also have many holes of their own- one would have thought that in that scenario the capital markets would do what they do best and that is to run a mile from the most indebted and that’s us folks.
So I’d be much more cautious on how this could eventually pan out. Don’t rule out the capital rules being loosened to allow for a fudge come next Autumn.
From the reply..
“..While there is no evidence that the European Banking Authority stress tests in 2014 will result in additional capital requirements for Irish banks, it
has been suggested in some quarters that the Irish taxpayer should be the first port of call should any capital requirements surface. This is not the case. The Irish banks have a number of options open to them if they need to raise capital in the future. Access to capital markets be it debt or equity for the banks is far better now than it has been for a number of
years as evidenced by the increase in Bank of Irelandâs share price in recent months, the disposal of the Stateâs preference shares in Bank of Ireland, and the disposal of contingent convertible notes (CoCos) in that institution earlier this year. The ESM is another potential source of capital for banks and there is still considerable negotiation to take place at
Eurogroup to agree the terms of that facility which will be available after the Single Supervisory Mechanism has been put in place…”
@YorB-FYI up to the govnr.
http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2013-12-19a.207&s=Noonan+banks#g212.r
@JG
I could be mistaken but I don’t believe the EBA tests scheduled for next Autumn and the recent BSA under the Troika arrangements are one and the same thing.
The EBA assessments are a Euro wide arrnagement whereas the BSA were a requirement for us under the ECB leg of the Troika funding arrangement.
The tests next Autumn may well result in similar findings however as far I can see no assumptions have been published by the EBA so I’m at a loss to know how the DoF can be so definitive that we will be ok particularly given that the mortgage disaster is worse here than probably anywhere else given that our house prices and attached mortgages got so out of whack relative to any other Eurozone country.
@YorB mbl will respond a little later here ya go… https://mobile.usablenet.com/mt/www.moodys.com:443/research/Moodys-downgrades-Permanents-deposit-ratings-to-B3-senior-debt-ratings–PR_289652
Hi All. This surely deserves a thread …
The party theme for New Yearâs Eve at Casselmanâs, a popular nightspot in downtown Denver, was the end of Prohibition. Guests dressed up as flappers and mobsters. The Untouchables, starring Robert De Niro as Al Capone, played on TV screens above the bar. The references were all to the demise of alcohol prohibition in 1933, but the real occasion was the end of the ban on another substance. As of midnight on New Yearâs Day 2014 â also known as âGreen Wednesdayâ â recreational marijuana is legal in the state of Colorado.
[…] California was the first state to approve the sale of medical marijuana in 1996; since then, 18 other US states and the District of Columbia have done the same.
Washington State legalised recreational weed at the same time as Colorado, but sales will not begin there until the summer. As the first state to introduce a regulated recreational retail market, Colorado represents a test-bed for the rest of the US â and the world.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/a-pot-of-gold-colorados-pilot-scheme-to-legalise-recreational-marijuana-could-raise-millions-in-tax-dollars-9033058.html
Blind Biddy is in Denver for the new year ….. hokkah_ed up with the one-eyed Shia Sheik …
@Ministers Noonan, Shatter & O’Reilly
Take note …
âNot many people will stand up and defend prohibition as a good policy,â Mr Elliot said. âWeâve had a 40-year drug war, spent a trillion dollars and what do we have to show for it? Marijuana is universally available, we have the highest incarceration rate in the world, and sales have been dominated by people who use violence to sell drugs, just like Al Capone did during alcohol prohibition. But now weâre creating accountable, transparent businesses.â
@ David O’Donnell
Uruguay is The Economist’s country of 2013:
This would surely be too much for the old men who run Ireland.
@YoB correct and agreed you can only hope the next recap next works out like TARP and Spain,but….
The reality is either fudge the tests and/or recap or wind it down,its a zombie bank,id be rather cautious having too much cash at PTSB to put it mildly.
http://www.esm.europa.eu/assistance/spain/index.htm
http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/cb/articles/?id=2446
Regarding weed or dope,in NY for past few years its always been widely and easily available including delivery,everyone has digits.
The biggest change is the ‘menu’ and amount of THC, in that instead of mexican dirt weed or crap canadian weed,you have a much larger more gourmet selection,its sold by the ounce or bigger ‘weight’ depending on your connections.I spend quite a bit time in Montauk,Long Island,its ubiquitous out there and also in Aspen.Its become way more socially acceptable,quite a lot off people use vaporizers,as someone who does not touch alcohol,pills or powders,the law change its welcome but as with all things in moderation…getting ‘baked’ all the time and being around people like that is kinda boring as is the glamourising of it and the stoner lifestyle.
@ YoB
there is no evidence that the EBA stress tests will indicate fresh recapitalisation requiurements simply because we do not know what the EBA stress tests will conclude, or even the basis (ie macro assumptions) which they will use to support the stress tests. Its a pretty simple and factucal statement. Lots of people on here seem to “know” that the banks will need more capital, without really explaining in any specific detail just why this is the case.
@BEB,happy new year Mr. Bond:)
“The outlook for Permanent TSB would appear bleak unless its restructuring plan is accepted by the commission. The Irish Examiner revealed in March that the Central Bank had been looking at different scenarios in the event an Irish bank fails the stress tests.
One of these included turning one of the three institutions into a winddown bank. Toxic assets from the other domestic banks could be transferred to this bank. It is believed the plan has found little support, particularly from the Department of Finance. However, if PTSBâs restructuring plan is rejected by the commission, could this be looked at again? ”
http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/features/uncertain-but-still-confident-banks-ring-in-a-better-new-year-253942.html
@Michael Hennigan
Minor point: The old men who ‘THINK’ they run Ireland.
Many MS, AS, and Cancer sufferers are still ‘waiting’ for a refined pharma version to be made available. And quite a few of these have been before the courts …..
On the heroin ‘scourge’, which is now countrywide, lessons may be learned from Portugal ….
I have previously requested on this blog – the economic scale of the GANG led drug ‘business’ …. no economist has responded. Or the Police costs – or the cost to the HSE. Power? Profit? Social Justice? or Cowardice?
@JG
Ta for update on the Big Apple.
@ DOD why don’t they simply grow it,plenty free time,doubt the guards arrest them,is this another ancedote ?
One day at a time David,one day…what’s a ounce of clean high grade grass,your end go for,is it easy to get?