Forecasting Corporation Tax Revenues

Here is an Analytical Note on the Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax from staff economists of the Fiscal Council.

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2 thoughts on “Forecasting Corporation Tax Revenues”

  1. It’s impossible to get away from the Apple case and I wonder if it could result in even more corporation tax being paid by multinationals in the next few years?

    It would be great to get analysis of the Apple case free of all the moralising i.e. simply a cold, hard weighing up of the legal issues. So far, having read acres of newsprint and browsed many online resources in the last week I have only been able to come up with the following, extremely small, legal or quasi-legal summary of the issues by various commentators:

    Michael McDowell: The commission is arguing that the illegal state aid given by Ireland depended on the tax laws and enforcement practices of other states. Other states failed to address underpayment of taxes by Apple in their own jurisdictions.

    Michael Hennigan: it was illegal of Revenue to knowingly recognise a ‘stateless’ company.

    Seamus Coffey: logic of Commission’s argument is that companies can get their worldwide income taxed in Ireland at 12.5%.

    Apologies to the above if I have misrepresented them but I think no matter where you stand on the Apple case you must admit that cold, hard legal facts to support your position are thin on the ground. Given so much uncertainty around CT perhaps a large percentage of receipts should only be used either to reduce the national debt or to fund once-off capital investment items which won’t incur ongoing increased current expenditure such as road investment or upgrades of hospital and schools.

  2. They probably don’t have all the letters of comfort.

    From the IT
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/two-world-views-were-evident-in-the-d%C3%A1il-debate-on-apple-1.2783249
    The Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin made the simplest case for the “establishment”.
    “In this debate and over the past week we have heard parties and deputies claim that an industrial policy, which includes multinationals, has failed and is unsustainable.This model supports hundreds of thousands of jobs and pays for teachers, nurses and pensions in every part of our country. What is more, it has done so for decades.
    “It has directly enabled significant falls in absolute poverty and rising living standards. It has not created a country without problems, but it has done more than any credible alternative industrial policy.”

    The model is on its last legs. And to say there was nothing better is highly questionable.

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