Hashtag is #ieconf, this liveblog will host tweets and comments from the Croke Park conference.
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Author: Stephen Kinsella
Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Limerick.
This Friday January 27th in Croke Park we will hold a conference on the Irish Economy. This conference is one of a sequence of Dublin Economic Workshop meetings in collaboration with the Universities (in this case UCD Geary Institute and UL). The conference programme is below. Registration will begin at 8.30 on Friday morning, with the first two sessions beginning at 9am. The final panel session is expected to finish at 6pm.
A few housekeeping issues.
RSVPS. In case there are late RSVPs or cancellations, please email clare.delargy@ucd.ie. If you haven’t received confirmation of attendance, please get in touch with Clare so she can add you to list.
Getting there. The conference will take place in the Croke Park Conference centre. The centre is accessible by public transport, with Dart, Bus and Luas lines within a 15-minute walk -please see here for further details.
There is also complimentary car parking for conference attendees on a first come first served basis. The closest car park to the conference centre is the Canal car park, on St Margaret’s Avenue off the North Circular road.
Location. The conference will take place in the Hogan Mezzanine Suite. Access to the suite is through the Jones’ Street entrance to the Hogan Stand, across from the Croke Park Hotel. There will be signs directing you to the suite upon entering the stadium, and there are lifts available.
Catering. There will be coffee breaks at two stages during the day. Please note that lunch will not be provided, but you will be able to avail of catering facilities at the centre.
Social Media. There is complimentary wi-fi access at the conference centre, and for those of you on twitter, we will be using the hashtag #ieconf throughout the day. We’ll aggregate the tweets on the Irish Economy liveblog.
Irish Economy Conference Programme, Croke Park, Dublin – January 27th 2012
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0830-0900 |
Registration and Opening |
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0900-1030 |
Economic Policy and Evaluation |
Property Market |
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Chair: Donal DeButleir (IFPRC)
Tom Healy (CERU) – “Researching Alternative Economic Policies.”
Frank Convery (UCD & IFPRC) – “Doing more good than harm – economists in the public service.”
Frances Ruane (ESRI) – “Evaluation – Contextual and Methodological Challenges.”
Robert Watt (Department PER) – “Improving Policy-Making Capacity.”
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Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL)
Ronan Lyons (Oxford) – “Residential Site Value Tax in Ireland: Land Values, Implementation & Revenues.”
Michelle Norris (UCD) – “Borrowers’ Pathways through Mortgage Arrears.”
Rob Kitchin (NUIM) – “Prospects for the Irish Property Market.”
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1030-1100 |
Coffee |
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1100-1230 |
Unemployment |
Demography |
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Chair: Minister Joan Burton T.D.
David Bell (Stirling) – “Unemployment in the Great Recession: More Misery for the Young?”
Aedin Doris (NUI Maynooth) – “Employment and Unemployment: What do Sectoral and Demographic Patterns Tell Us?”
Philip O’Connell (ESRI) – “The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland.”
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Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD)
Orla Doyle (UCD) – “Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy.”
Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (ESRI) – “The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults.”
Brendan Walsh (UCD) –“Well Being and Economic Conditions in Ireland.”
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1230-1330 |
Lunch
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1330-1500 |
Banking and Euro |
Economic Recovery – Can Competition, Regulation and Privatisation Help? |
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Chair: Constantin Gurdgiev (TCD)
Brian Lucey (TCD) – “Banking in Ireland – Back to the Future.”
Frank Barry (TCD) – “Rectifying Design Flaws in the Euro Project”
Karl Whelan (UCD) – “ The IBRC, ELA, Promissory Notes and All That …“
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Chair: Cathal Guiomard (CAR)
Richard Tol (Sussex) – “Energy Regulation in Ireland – Some Current Weaknesses and Lessons for Recovery.”
John Fingleton (UK Office of Fair Trading) – “Economic Growth – How Can Competition Policy Help?”
Doug Andrew (former London Airport regulator) – “Governance, Ownership and Reform.”
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1500-1530 |
Coffee |
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1530-1700 |
Fiscal Policy |
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Chair: Dan O’Brien (Irish Times)
Philip Lane (TCD) – “Ireland and The Fiscal Compact.”
John McHale (NUIG) – “Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions.”
Seamus Coffey (UCC) – “Current and Capital Expenditure: Getting the Balance Right.”
Colm McCarthy (UCD) – “Public Capital Investment and Fiscal Stabilization.”
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1700-1800 |
Panel Session on Irish Economy
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Paul Krugman links to the latest McKinsey report on debt and deleveraging. There’s a lot of useful data in there, but this chart struck me as worth posting on this blog, with little comment required.
Today’s developments that Minister Noonan hopes to see parts of the Anglo debt reduced are most welcome. From an Irish Times report:
On the Anglo debts, Mr Noonan said troika officials were preparing a joint technical paper, drawing on Irish suggestions, to reduce the overall burden involved in repaying the principal of the €31 billion promissory note.
This loan arrangement predates the EU-IMF programme and was agreed to fund an effectively insolvent Anglo Irish Bank but is seen by the Government as too expensive.
“We think there’s a less expensive way of doing it by financial engineering, and we’re not talking about private-sector involvement or restructuring,” said Mr Noonan in Berlin.
Writing in the latest issue of Business and Finance, Karl makes a similar point. Read the entire piece, especially a precise description of what promissory notes are and how they work, but this quote struck me as important.
It is true that the Irish taxpayer has taken on far too big a burden in ensuring that bondholders at Anglo and INBS were repaid. But quibbling about bondholders misses the elephant in the room. It is the huge burden of repaying ELA, not bondholders, that is going to bleed the taxpayer dry for the next twenty years.
It is time for the Irish government to declare that it has no intention of putting €3.1 billion towards repaying ELA in March and that it has arranged an agreement in principle with the Central Bank of Ireland that the state will repay this debt when it has fully recovered from its current crisis.
If my understanding of the legal situation is correct, then Patrick Honohan would only require the support of seven other members of the ECB Governing Council to proceed with this plan. This could easily be achieved with the support of Mario Draghi. Ireland has borne a heavy burden in the name of European financial stability. It’s time for a quid pro quo from super Mario.
Over Christmas I read Ed Walsh‘s excellent autobiography Upstart. Upstart details the creation of the National Institute of Higher Education, Limerick, which subsequently became the University of Limerick. Given where I work, but also because it’s a fine story, I found it unputdownable. In part Upstart details the political machinations required to get UL university status. I wonder if the Institutes in the Southeast saw an early draft?
Today’s ‘news’ as reported by Sean Flynn that the Minister for Education will announce the creation of a technological university for the Southeast might give the impression it was. Sean Flynn took to Twitter recently to say the Department of Education has denied it is going ahead, but “big wheels in Cabinet want it .it (sic) will happen!”
It sounds like there have been a serious discussion ongoing about a new university behind closed doors. Given the state of the State’s finances, and also the sector most of the contributors to this blog work in, as well as the contribution of universities in general to Irish life, I think this news, or leak, or whatever, is worth a thread on this blog.