Category: Uncategorized

The Commission have released their updated economic forecasts for 2013 and 2014.  With an estimated –0.6% contraction in 2012 the eurozone is forecast to contract by a further –0.3% in 2013.

Ireland is set to be the third fastest growing eurozone country with the 1.1% growth forecast behind only Estonia (3.0%) and Malta (1.5%).  This is not a reflection of any strong performance in Ireland’s case.  Inflation for the eurozone at 1.8% is “close to but below 2%” though.

The public balance for the eurozone is forecast to fall from -3.5% of GDP last year to –2.8% of GDP this year.  No eurozone country is expected to run a surplus and at –7.3% of GDP Ireland will have the largest public deficit in the eurozone (the UK at –7.4% of GDP is expected to have the largest deficit in the EU27).

All of the details are available from this page (though for the moment some of the numbers in the interactive map do not match those in the statistical annex).

The SMP data have been released – here.  ECB holds euro 14.2 billion of Irish bonds (at face value).

New IMF WP here.

Strategic arrears denotes the amount of funds voluntarily not paid on mortgages by homeowners and buy-to-let investors who have the ability to meet the payments but choose not to do so. The available funds are spent on current (non-necessity) consumption or redirected elsewhere, outside the control of the mortgage-holding bank.  Distressed arrears are the “can’t pay” component of mortgage arrears and strategic arrears are the “won’t pay” component.

The statement from the Minister for Finance is here.