Keynes and floods

Floods do a lot of damage.

Floods also harm production, but Ireland has overcapacity at the moment. Flood repairs are labour-intensive, and a lot of stuff will need to be replaced. This will partly be paid for by the insurance companies, who will in turn get their money back from international reinsurers. Affected households will also tap their savings.

Flood restoration thus stimulates demand.

We don’t want floods. But if we must have floods, and if we could time floods, we would have them in the depths of a recession.

This is no consolation for those affected.

See also the Irish Times

First Birthday

This blog began on December 2nd 2008.  Many thanks to all contributors and commentators for building this site into a useful forum for the analysis and discussion of topics relating to the Irish economy (and beyond).

Lessons from the floods

Now that the worst seems to be over, it is time to start thinking about the next flood. Today’s piece in the Independent is a small start.

Accountability

We heard on RTE radio yesterday that the shopping centre in Bandon which is now under flood was build in an area known to locals as “the swamp”.   Other councils and planners were also known to have allowed buildings to be erected in the flood plains of rivers over the boom period.  How can they be held to account?  

Consultants also face inefficient incentive structures.  Will PWC lose any future contracts for failing to highlight the importance, in their report to the Minister for Finance, of the €7 billion deposit that ILAP had placed in Anglo-Irish Bank?  This was damaging to the credibility of the Minister for Finance and his department when it emerged into the public domain several months later (Irish Times, February 12, 2009). 

A correspondent recently drew my attention to a statement from the same Minister on November 28, 2008.  Referring to a report he had received on the Bank Guarantee Scheme, the Minister noted that:

 “The report confirmed that the capital position of each of the institutions reviewed is in excess of regulatory requirements as at 30 September 2008. The report also concludes that even in certain stress scenarios the capital levels in the financial institutions will remain within regulatory requirements in the period to 2011.” 

Since the report remains confidential, the extent to which the Minister’s interpretation and explication may have been politically motivated remains unclear; i.e. how broad a range of the stress scenarios does his statement refer to?  If the report’s authors got it completely wrong, then surely they should have consequences to face?  

The powers and remit of the Comptroller and Auditor General need to be extended to cover such matters.

 

Plans for Irish Economic Recovery: U2 Edition

William Easterly reports on a plan to help a small but symbolically important part of the Irish economy. I particularly liked the fourth suggestion.