The publication of the October figures for those “signing on” brought some good news in as much as the total is now declining.
An examination of the figures by main social welfare categories shows that there has been a 15% fall in the number of males 25 and over claiming Jobseekers’ Benefit since April this year, and a similar decline for females since July.
However, the rise in the numbers aged 25 and over claiming Job-seekers’ Allowance is inexorable. The number of males aged 25 and over in this category has risen by 140% since the end of 2007 and the increase shows no signs of easing.
Category: Uncategorized
In these gloomy times, here is an update on two socio-demographic trends that give some cause for some cheer, and which do not receive due attention. These trends, previously described for earlier years in a piece in the Economic and Social Review, persisted during 2007 and 2008. They are [1] evidence that the long rise in the proportion of births occurring outside marriage was leveling off, and [2] signs that the number of Irish pregnancies aborted in England and Wales had peaked.
The leveling off in the proportion of extramarital births, which continued in 2007 and 2008, is described in Figure 1.
]. Probably more significant, though, is the continuing downward trend in teenage births. Teenage births surged from 1.6 per cent of all births in 1960 to 6.3 per cent in 2001, but fell off thereafter to 4 per cent in 2005 and 3.7 per cent in 2006. In 2007 and 2008 the shares were down to 3.5 and 3.2 per cent, respectively.
The share of extramarital births to mothers aged less than 25 years has also continued to fall. Between 1998 and 2006 it plummeted from 58.2 to 40.6 per cent; by 2008 it was down to 37.4 per cent (Figure 2). This is important since, presumably, a higher proportion of the births to older single mothers were planned, and thus less costly for mother, child, and society at large.
Abortion remains a controversial and divisive issue in Ireland. A decade ago, the proportion of all Irish conceptions terminated in England and Wales exceeded one in ten. The proportion peaked in 1999-2000, and has declined slowly since then. In 2007 and 2008 the percentage of all pregnancies terminated in England and Wales continued its unheralded but remarkable decline to 6.2 and 5.7 per cent. Nor does the diversion of terminations to the Netherlands—sometimes mentioned as a factor—account for the decline. The number of women giving Irish addresses at Dutch abortion clinics fell from 451 in 2007 to 330 in 2008.
Another feature noted earlier was the striking reduction in the number of terminations by young women as a proportion of the total (Figure 3). Their share has virtually halved, from 6.3 per cent a decade ago to 3.2 per cent in 2008. The proportion of teen pregnancies ending in terminations remained high, averaging 22.2 per cent between 1997 and 2006. In 2007 and 2008 the percentages fell to 18.1 and 17.4, respectively. For older women the share ending in terminations also fell. These declines may be partly due to compositional shifts, but improved sex education and increasing use of the morning-after pill are probably more important factors.
So far, so good. But will these trends survive the recession?
There remain a few spaces for this workshop if you can email emma.barron@ucd.ie
The third in the series of Dublin Economics Workshop meetings on the Irish economy will take place on November 2nd at the Radission SAS Hotel, Golden Lane, Dublin 2. The programme details are as follows:
1300 Registration
Session 1
Chair and Discussant – John Fitzgerald (ESRI)
1330-1415 David Blanchflower (Dartmouth) – What Should Be Done About Rising Unemployment?
1415-1445 Colm Harmon (UCD) – Education and Innovation Strategies
1445-1515 Discussion and Q&A
1515-1530 Coffee Break
Session 2
Chair and Discussant – Colm McCarthy (UCD)
1530-1600 John McHale (NUIG) – The Other Crisis: Whither Irish Pensions?
1600-1630 Philip Lane (TCD) – Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland
1630-1700 DIscussion and Q&A
Please RSVP to emma.barron@ucd.ie (many thanks to those who have already done so!). We are looking forward to a full house and a lively meeting.
On November 6th, we will hold a one-day session on the interaction of Economics and Psychology. Full details of this are here. All are welcome. There is no registration process but perhaps email emma.barron@ucd.ie to confirm attendance.
The current literatures in areas such as intertemporal choice, well-being, emotional decision making, experimental economics, identity, risky choice, neuroeconomics, and related areas are changing modern economics entirely and increasingly behavioural economics is being debated in core policy discussions, particularly in areas such as taxation and pensions. This session and previous sessions have attempted to gather people working in this area in Ireland and are complementary to the wider international conference on economics and psychology that takes place every year.
Speakers for the day include Professor Arie Kapteyn, who is a pioneer in the use of subjective measures in economics and, among many other things in a very distinguished career, founded CentER in Tilburg and is currently head of the Labour and Population Division at RAND. The current head of CentER, Professor Marcel Das will also present on the MESS and LISS projects, two of the largest social science projects in the world that are bringing economics and psychology together in a way that is dramatically expanding the data and measures available for researchers to look at complex economic questions.
There will also be a number of speakers from UCD, ESRI, Maynooth, UL and from other national institutions. While the day is focused around the talks, we hope that there will be a lot of discussion about the implications of behavioural economics for public policy and for regulation. I have posted previously on the topic of whether policy-makers should care about behavioural economics. Hopefully we can talk further about that on the day.
Some of the speakers may be wondering why there are 60,000 people outside the venue protesting. I have told them that behavioural economics is controversial in Ireland and to expect trouble.
International capital flows have had a destabilising effect in several countries in recent years, including Ireland. Arvind Subramanian and John Williamson have an interesting piece on the new Brazilian tax on capital inflows, here.