Journées de l’Economie

I was at the Journées de l’économie in Lyon last week: this is a popular economics festival at which literally thousands of members of the public show up to listen to people like yours truly.

I was on a Brexit panel on the Wednesday, and tried to explain to a French audience how serious the issue is for us (I start about 30 minutes in, but the whole thing is worth listening to; I thought Jon Henley in particular, who preceded me, was really excellent and made all the points you would have wanted to make yourself); there was a more academic session on a very French topic (“Mutations du capitalisme“) on the Thursday,  at which Daniel Cohen made a couple of points that I thought were very thought-provoking (and also very French).

On Dividing Large Numbers by Other Large Numbers

Conservative backbench MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, welcoming today’s Economists for Free Trade report predicting a bright post-Brexit future for the UK economy, remarked that the loss of the UK’s £9 billion per annum net contribution to the budget would render the EU ‘effectively insolvent’, according to the Guardian.

They should therefore be threatened with immediate suspension of the UK’s payments, forcing the EU to do a deal. Nine billion divided by the EU-27 population of 450 million works out at £20 per capita per annum.

Mr. Rees-Mogg has been described as a possible future leader of the Conservative party and has performed strongly in straw polls of party activists.

Is it OK if I lie down for a while?

Trade and violence

My latest column in Critical Quarterly is available here.

Household Credit Market Report 2017 H2

The Bank published the 2017 H2 edition of the Household Credit Market Report last week. The report collates information from a wide range of internal Central Bank and external sources into one document to give an up-to-date picture of developments in the household credit market in Ireland.  It covers both mortgage and consumer credit. Among the highlights in this edition, mortgage credit grew at an annual rate of 1.4 per cent for private dwelling homes in Q2 2017 but remains negative for Buy-to-Let purposes (-8.6 per cent).  New mortgage approvals and drawdowns continued to increase in Q2 2017, with First Time Buyers continuing to account for roughly half of all approvals and drawdowns.  For the period January to June 2017, the average originating loan-to-value (OLTV) ratio on new lending for FTBs was 79.4 per cent and the average originating loan-to-income (OLTI) ratio was 3.0. The corresponding figures for Second and Subsequent Borrowers (SSBs) were 67.6 per cent and 2.5 respectively. These ratios increased slightly in comparison to the second half of 2016. On average, FTBs and SSBs borrowed €199,414 and €229,332 respectively during the period January to June 2017. In terms of consumer credit, growth remains positive at 5.4 per cent year-on-year in August 2017, reflecting growth in loans of a maturity of between 1 and 5 years.  More details from the Report can be found here.

Teagasc PhD Walsh Fellowship Opportunity

Economic Modelling of Agricultural Land Markets

The objective of this project is two-fold. Newly available data on agricultural land structure and tenure in Ireland will be exploited to assess (i) the impact of new taxation measures on land mobility between farmers and (ii) the impact of land tenure and mobility on the economic performance of farm businesses. Specifically, economic modelling techniques will be used to examine the relationship between land fragmentation, tenure and farm productivity and efficiency. The effectiveness of recent tax incentives around long-term leasing of land will be explored and the impact of long-term leases on farm performance will be measured. Overall this project will contribute to a greater understanding of how the agricultural land market in Ireland operates, how policy measures can influence mobility and how land tenure impacts on the performance of the agricultural sector.

Requirements
The successful candidate should be highly self-motivated with an ability to work independently and be willing to undertake recommended coursework where necessary. Strong quantitative skills and good communication skills, both written and verbal, are essential requirements. Applicants should have a good primary degree (First or Second Class Honours) or M.Sc. in an appropriate discipline (Economics, statistics or related).

Award
The Ph.D. Fellowship is a joint research project between Teagasc, Rural Economy and Development Programme, Athenry Co. Galway and the Cork University Business School, University College Cork. The student will be work under the supervision of Prof. Thia Hennessy (UCC), Dr Robbie Butler (UCC) and Dr Emma Dillon (Teagasc).
The fellowship provides a stipend of €22,000 per year. University fees are paid by the student from the stipend which is tenable for 4 years.

Further Information/Applications
Prof. Thia Hennessy, Dean, Cork University Business, University College Cork. Phone +353 (0)21 490 2868 Email: thia.hennessy@ucc.ie
Dr. Emma Dillon, Rural Economy and Development Programme, Teagasc, Athenry, Co. Galway. Phone +353 (0)91 845 294 Email: emma.dillon@teagasc.ie
Dr. Robbie Butler, Cork University Business, University College Cork.
Phone +353 (0)21 490 2434 Email: r.butler@ucc.ie

Application Procedure
Submit an electronic copy of Curriculum Vitae and a letter of interest simultaneously to: Prof. Thia Hennessy (thia.hennessy@ucc.ie) and Dr. Emma Dillon (emma.dillon@teagasc.ie).

Closing date 5pm Friday 17th of November 2017.