State Gains from “Error”

Fairly amazing story

The general Government debt is to be written down by 2.3 per cent, or €3.6 billion, following the detection of an accounting error.

The Department of Finance said the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) had notified it of a double count brought about a change in its relationship with the Housing Finance Authority.

Does this mean we can cancel the €3.6 billion budgetary adjustment? (Just kidding).  Now if only we could correct the “error” of supplying the IBRC with €31 billion in promissory notes, we’d be saved.

2011 Triennial Surveillance Review – External Study – An Evaluation of IMF Surveillance of the Euro Area

The report is available here.

The articles by Joe Stiglitz and Martin Wolf on the IMF’s surveillance role are also interesting.

Greek Referendum

Papandreou says

“We have faith in our citizens, we believe in their judgment and therefore in their decision,” Mr Papandreou said after rejecting a call for early elections by some socialist politicians. “All the country’s political forces should support the [bail-out] agreement. The citizens will do the same once they are fully informed.”

Does he believe this? What are the implications for the euro?

EFSF Scales Back Irish Bond Issue

This is hardly confidence-inspiring news. EFSF is supposed to save the Eurozone and offer Ireland cheap and long-term funding. What if the markets decide not to play ball and decline to offer the facility sufficient funding at low rates or long maturities?

The eurozone rescue fund has scaled back a planned bond issue designed to finance the bail-out of Ireland amid uncertainty over the level of demand.

The offering will provide a key test of investor sentiment after the announcement last week of new plans to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.

The bond from the European Financial Stability Facility will only target €3bn, instead of €5bn, and will be in 10-year bonds rather than a 15-year maturity because of worries over demand. A 10-year bond is more likely to attract interest from Asian central banks than a longer maturity …

Already delayed from last week, EFSF officials decided to price this week because market conditions could deteriorate if they held off any longer.

The bond is expected to price at yields of about 3.30 per cent, and about 130 basis points over Germany, the European market benchmark. This is a big mark-up since the middle of September when existing 10-year EFSF bonds were trading around 2.60 per cent and only 70bp over Germany.

Not good.

Update: Eoin points us to an Oct 13 statement indicating they intended a €3 billion issue. Thanks Eoin. It appears the FT over-egged this one. They’re probably right about the delay, the reduced maturity and the higher yield

State Investment Bank

Michael O’Sullivan and I have an article in today’s Irish Times arguing for a state investment bank. Some links to supporting materials are below the fold.