Obama’s Tax Proposals

Even after a string of bad economic forecasts, the news on Obama administration proposals to reform the taxation of overseas’ profits stands out as particularly worrisome news for the Irish economy. 

The White House website provides a good overview of the proposed reforms: fact sheet here. 

Let’s hope the powers that be take note of findings summarised in this recent HBS Working Paper by Harvard’s Mihir Desai (via Greg Mankiw’s blog).   The best hope is that the U.S. Senate waters down the proposals (see here from some initial reaction).  But the politics look unfavourable.

European Commission spring forecasts

The EC has published its spring economic forecast. They are predicting a 16% unemployment rate for Ireland in 2010.

Dependency theory for the 21st century

The last time the world experienced an economic catastrophe on the present scale, governments in Latin America and elsewhere drew the conclusion that reliance on fickle overseas markets was a dangerous thing. World War II only served to reinforce this conclusion.

Similar lessons are being drawn today, with one crucial difference. Back then, the decision was made to artificially decouple national economies from the international economy by developing protected industries that would service the home market. Now, the focus is on lessening export dependence by boosting local demand, which will involve temporary stimulus measures in the short run, but more structural measures in the longer term, for example promoting “social safety nets to give Asian consumers, especially the poor, the confidence to spend”. Moving towards higher wages, a more equal income distribution, and lower savings rates in countries like China, so that more of what is produced there is consumed there, would seem to be among the more benign adjustment scenarios available to the world economy today.

Barrington Prize Lecture on May 13th

This year’s Barrington Prize Lecture on “Well-Being under conditions of abundance: Ireland from 1990 to 2007” will be given by Liam Delaney on May 13th as part of the AGM of SSISI. The meeting starts at 6pm and will be held at the Royal Irish Academy, 19 Dawson Street, Dublin 2 .

Abstract:
This paper examines the health and well-being of the Irish population in the late 20th century, the period popularly referred to as the Celtic Tiger. This period saw unprecedented increases in economic activity in Ireland. Using statistical data from administrative and survey sources, I examine whether this period of growth improved well-being and welfare in Ireland. The paper draws from theories of the development of societies such as those of Fogel and Easterlin, as well as theories from behavioural economics and econometric techniques to examine this question. In particular, I examine the extent to which Ireland fits into a pattern of declining correlation between GDP and well-being at later stages of development, a phenomenon known as the Easterlin Paradox. I also examine the extent to which individual well-being is predicted by income as compared to other aspects of welfare such as health and employment status. The results are discussed in the context of long-term demographic and health trends in Ireland.

I look forward to seeing you there. Of course, non-members are welcome to attend and participate in the discussion of the paper.

The AGM and Barrington Lecture of The Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland will take place on Wednesday, 13th May 2009,  starting at 6:00 pm. The order of the meeting will be:

Annual General Meeting:
I.                  Minutes of the 2008 AGM
II.                  Report & Accounts
III.                  Election of Council Members & Officers of the Society
IV.    The Barrington Lecture

ICTU Employment Document

ICTU’s employment document is an interesting addition to the debate. However, it is not fully clear where the one billion figure comes from and, in general, it would be worth thinking further about costing. The overall thrust of the document is important though, in particular their correct emphasis on the urgent need to address full unemployment.

linked here