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Banking Crisis Economic Performance

The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

In this new paper (joint with Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti of the IMF), we empirically examine the factors explaining the cross-country variation in the severity of the global crisis.  We find that the pre-crisis level of income per capita, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International financial integration did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis.  (Forthcoming in IMF Economic Review.)