Unemployment and Negative Equity

Ronan Lyon’s final post on this thread is available at this link

By necessity, there is a lot of educated guess-work in the post. For example, the working assumption in Ronan’s analysis is that recent layoffs are as likely to be homeowners as not. Nevertheless, the effects of the double-whammy of unemployment and negative equity affecting Dublin’s commuter belt is an issue that Ronan’s post usefully highlights.

2 thoughts on “Unemployment and Negative Equity”

  1. Two thoughts on this

    1. Given that the most recent statistics available suggest a particularly large rise in unemployment among those 25-44, the association between (relatively recent) home ownership and (unexpected) unemployment may be stronger than Ronan suggests. The regional concentration also is evidence, on the face of it, of the same association. If so, this is going to become a serious problem very quickly as savings etc run out.

    2. This requires some clarity on public policy in this area. Banks can hardly simply foreclose on these small asset holders, given that government has restructured the ownership and value of their large assets/ debts. In the absence of some policy framework of expectations presumably people are sinking their savings into the mortgage payments, trying to keep their heads above water. The social and financial crisis come together here in a way that requires public intervention, although I don’t know enough about the area to suggest a useful policy approach.

  2. Hi Sean,

    Thanks for that. I’ve been building these up over the last few weeks, using county-by-county estimates wherever possible of all the variables concerned, including demographics and Live Register, so hopefully it’s not too much out. I do see some H1 data by detailed age group, so I’ll have another look at that, particularly as the DOEHLG do give a breakdown of FTBs by age for some years.

    R

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