The CSO released the Live Register figures for July today.
Optimists can point to the fact that the month-on-month increase (s.a.) for July was 10,500, slightly down from 12,000 in June, and only one third the January increase of 31,400.
However, the composition of the total is changing towards longer-term unemployment, as may be seen in the shift among males aged 25 and over from Jobseeker’s Benefit, which actually fell in July, to Jobseeker’s Allowance, which rose steeply. (You may get Jobseeker’s Allowance if you don’t qualify for Jobseeker’s Benefit or if you have used up your entitlement to Jobseeker’s Benefit.)
There are now more males aged 25 and over in the Allowance than in the Benefit category. The number of females claiming the Allowance is also rising very rapidly.
No doubt when details on the duration of claims are released, they will confirm the shift towards longer-term unemployment.
5 replies on “July Live Register Figures”
The same phenomenon appears to be happening in the US according to Floyd Norris, the chief financial correspondent of The New York Time.
Here is a chart showing the monthly changes in the total live register (seasonally adjusted) figures:
From Live Register
Can I suggest that there is a far simpler explanation – emigration. Those under 25 are more likely to leave than older people who are have family and other commitments. Also I fail to see the relevance of seasonally adjusted figures. Are all those season public service jobs going to be filled in September? I think not!
There was a post on progressive economy some weeks ago, which used mobile phone numbers to suggest emigration was back with a vengence.
While the figures for the total Live Register are seasonally adjusted, the figures in the Charts are not.
I tend to agree with you that historically-based seasonal adjustments are not likely be to too relevant during the current turmoil in the labour market.
Did a whole pile of comments disappear from this blog post?
Or am I going loo-lah? (Even more so.)