October Live Register Figures

The publication of the October figures for those “signing on” brought some good news in as much as the total is now declining.
An examination of the figures by main social welfare categories shows that there has been a 15% fall in the number of males 25 and over claiming Jobseekers’ Benefit since April this year, and a similar decline for females since July.

However, the rise in the numbers aged 25 and over claiming Job-seekers’ Allowance is inexorable. The number of males aged 25 and over in this category has risen by 140% since the end of 2007 and the increase shows no signs of easing.

The benefits of increased investment and efficiency in public infrastructure and utilities

A guest post by Paul Hunt

The case for a pro-cyclical fiscal contraction accompanied by a significant “internal devaluation” has been convincingly demonstrated by many commentators and, in particular, on this site by Philip Lane (most recently here).

But Philip has been equally strong on the requirement to tackle rent capture and inefficiencies that increase costs and prices and, to some extent, justify calls for the retention of current nominal pay levels, as in:

As a complement to pay reductions, it is also vital to more vigorously tackle monopoly power in many sectors of the economy, since a reduction in markups and monopoly rents (often shared between owners, managers and workers in these firms) is an important source of real depreciation and improved competitiveness.” (Irish Economy Note9, p3)

However, apart from a recognition of the importance of this task, it appears that little attention is being paid to what could be done in the short to medium term. There can be no doubt that the bubble economy facilitated increased rent capture and inefficiencies in the sheltered sectors of the economy, but quantifying the scale and extent – not to mind devising effective remedies – is a daunting task. And the political and economic power of the beneficiaries is not insignificant. So it is, perhaps, not surprising that there is little evidence of these problems being tackled effectively.

Tough Budget Needed to Stave Off Grimmer Future

In Wednesday’s Irish Times,  I put forward a compressed version of the talk I gave at Monday’s DEW workshop: you can read it here.

The Housing Bubble and the Windfall in the Tax Revenues

In a new Research Technical Paper from the Central Bank, Diarmuid Addison-Smyth and Kieran McQuinn quantify the housing-related windfall revenues in stamp duty and VAT categories at a cumulative €7.5 billion (approximately) over the 2004-2008 period.

The Extension of Bank Guarantee Systems

Aviram Levy and Fabio Panetta make an informative contribution on this topic in this VOX article.