ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary

There is lots of coverage of the latest ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary in the media today. Here is a link to the Summary and key tables.

Author: Edgar Morgenroth

Professor of Economics at Dublin City University Business School

5 thoughts on “ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary”

  1. This would seem to be the most optimistic short-term forecast so far with annual GNP growth flat this year (largely contigent on neg. consumer spending of -0.8%). Retail sales figures today are also up (albeit largely due to the scrappage scheme). Another interesing point is the employment forecast. Flat annual average employment growth for 2011 (see summary table) would definitely represent a turnaround in the beleagured labour market in 2011 as it implies Q4 to Q4 net employment growth of the order of 30,000. Here’s hoping!

  2. How nice of the ESRI to:

    1. Not include the the promissory notes to Anglo, EBS, INBS in the Debt to GDP end 2010 of 79.75%

    2. like most economists, highlight the GDP decline in 2009 of 7.1% VOLUME, not the VALUE decline of 10.4%.

    3. Suggest that the govt shall have an even bigger deficit of €21bn in 2011 versus the already shocking €20bn in 2010.

  3. At the end of the text on p1 of the Summary in the comments on the banks’ recap: “..the situation should never have arisen whereby the Irish taxpayer is faced with such a financial burden [estimated by the ESRI as at least €33 billion] due to the behaviour of the private sector.”

    Hindsight, as always, is 20:20 vision. But, hey, it’s time to move on. I know the QEC isn’t the place for it, but it would be nice to hear from the ESRI how economic and fiscal policy should be designed, scrutinised, enacted and implemented to avoid a repetition of this debacle. Or is this beyond its remit?

  4. @Paul Hunt
    “I know the QEC isn’t the place for it, but it would be nice to hear from the ESRI how economic and fiscal policy should be designed, scrutinised, enacted and implemented to avoid a repetition of this debacle. Or is this beyond its remit?”
    I agree but there are positive signs. I think in the first comment you refer to and indeed in this website we are seeing Glasnost in the ESRI. Lets hope they now go further as you suggest. If an economic depression doesn’t make them do so you have to wonder what would. But when will Opus Dof change? They have gigantic power but are unaccountable and secretive. Again, we have had an economic depression so if they aren’t transformed now they never will be.

  5. general comment re the esri quarterly (short-term)forecasts since about 2007: They have been proven to consistently and very significantly erred on the over-optiministic side. Look at Q4 07 forecast for 2008 or Q4 08 forecast for 2009, for example.

    it appears to matter not to our broadsheets and others who cite their forecasts almost as if they are citing fact.

    seriously, no one expects precision – not in these times – but for how long can the esri go on seeing the world only through rose tinted glasses and still retain credibility?

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