The February ECB bulletin carries an interesting article on commercial property markets across the euro area; it is striking to compare the boom-bust cycle in Ireland relative to other countries: you can download the bulletin here.
Year: 2010
Olivia Kelly had a remarkable sense of precognition in yesterday’s Irish Times. The Independent, the Examiner and Irish Times report again today. See also FinFacts.
Paul Gorecki sums it up nicely: There was only one valid criticism of the report and it did not change the substance of the report or its conclusions.
Here’s the abstract:
The report sets out an economic approach to municipal waste management policy in Ireland and then applies that framework to two recent policy developments. First, the proposed Section 60 policy direction to cap incineration and other matters, and second, the international review of waste management policy. These complementary policy developments sponsored by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government are designed to provide a roadmap for a new municipal waste management policy. The report questions whether these developments provide a coherent and feasible basis on which to develop waste policy. Indeed, apart from some unexceptional lessons which are consistent with current waste management policy, implementation of these proposals and recommendations is likely to lower societal welfare and increase the chances that Ireland will miss important Landfill Directive targets with consequent EU fines. The report puts forward a number of suggestions consistent with raising societal welfare while at the same time meeting the Landfill Directive targets.
The report was previously discussed here.
Update: The IWMA still does not accept the ESRI waste projections (even though EPA and DEHLG do).
Update2: Dr Dominic Hogg of Eunomia continues to think that the ESRI is wrong.
Update3: Minister Gormley argues that the international review is flawless.
The German municipality of Niederzimmern does not have the money to fix potholes. They are now selling the right to fix the road to anyone. In return, the owner of the fixed pothole can put on the road a text of her choice.
(from today’s Volkskrant)
Here‘s a link to the exchequer returns for February and here‘s the release comparing tax outcomes to the targets set out in the budget. (Here are the full set of targets for the year.) Tax revenues are 1.3% behind target for the year.
If replicated over the year, that would imply a shortfall for the year of €310 million which isn’t such a big deal. That said—and I don’t claim to be an expert on the month-to-month stuff and I know lots of this stuff is really noisy—income tax receipts being down 6% relative to target seem like bad news, More generally, I’m starting to get worried at how we keep falling short of targets.
The GDP and unemployment statistics from last year showed the really steep declines in activity ended in the second quarter. I’m looking for an unwinding of the huge year-over-year declines by April or so. If that doesn’t happen, we could end up pretty far off target.
The new National Pensions Framework is available here (press release here).
Details are surprisingly sparse in places for a document so long in the making. But the proposed reforms are generally sensible. It is also good to see recent behavioural economics research having an impact on policy. Some highlights:
· The retirement age is to rise in stages, reaching 68 by 2028. While this is unlikely to be the end of the increases, it provides a good start in terms of reducing long-term fiscal imbalances. Getting better control over long-term finances will also help boost near-term creditworthiness, especially as the NTMA attempts to issue 30-year bonds
· The new auto-enrolment scheme (to be launched in 2014) is well informed by work in behavioural economics. The design details generally make sense: automatic enrolment (with automatic re-enrolment after two years for those who opt out); matching government and employer contributions; low administrative costs through utilising the PRSI system, and low-cost investment defaults
· Tax relief standardised at 33 percent rather than at the marginal rate. This is high enough to provide an incentive for pension provision, while getting rid of a regressive feature of the old system