Migration Estimates

@ Brendan Walsh
Thanks for the graph (I wish there were more graphs on this site).

The point was made about return migration of Poles etc. What this neglects is that there are people who left Ireland in 2005 for fun/adventure expecting to come home in 2009, but now can’t.

So though the gross out migration figures overestimate Irish national migration, the gross in-migration helps capture the lack of returning Irish migrants.

Overall the net figure gives a decent picture of Irish national migration.

(Also how much of this Eastern European return migration is ‘voluntary’)

@ Sarah Carey

No its not stretching it.

Here is some old data, if I find more up to date data I’ll post it. Return Irish migration declined from 20,000 in 2007 to about 13,300 in 2010 (preliminary figures).

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf

Its not a theory that is being lobbed in. Its a reality faced by many.

oh right 🙂

Well, they are still coming back, even if in reduced numbers, that’s something isn’t it?

7,000 less coming back is still better than claims of 60,000 leaving…..

@ Rory

i’ll say it again (originally on the other thread) – we greeted returning Irish from the US/UK in the early part of the noughties as the homecoming of homecomings, a joyous reversal of previous emmigration, but when the same situation happens with Polish people, its suddenly bad news for them?

@ Bond.Eoin Bond

Its push vs pull. During the noughties Irish people were economically pulled here, they weren’t pushed due to unemployment in UK/US. Polish people aren’t being pulled home (though their economy is doing relatively ok) they are being economically pushed by unemployment here. That’s a crucial difference.

@Brendan

A bit off-topic, but its becoming my dream to develop a website a bit like Irisheconomy, a bit like boards.ie where people can discuss working papers etc., but the scripting language would be based on LaTeX, so everything would look nice and pretty.

@Rory

I wasn’t being facetious! I acknowledge your correction of my allegation of a theory, but revert to the original point – the emigration figures were grossly misinterpreted by the WSJ because they made the mistake -which you and some others are doing – of attaching personal narratives to numbers.

Apologies for off the topic. But I don’t care!

Does moving the deposits out of Anglo and Irish Nationwide make restructuring of their respective senior guaranteed less complicated in terms of capital structures?

P.S IL&P’s share price is gonna explode on the back of this. Get Long in the morning!!!!!!!!

@ Bond

Yes, I accept there is a mixture of good news/stories. The ’emotional’ argument depends on where people consider ‘home’. However, if we look at the change in the labour market, and the shift in trend of Irish national net migration, we can’t deny that migration is an issue.

But I repeat my point, just as Polish people came here with the intention of working 3 years so they could save up for a house (and many are probably happy to go home), Irish people went abroad with the intention of returning, but can’t.

The ‘return’ argument cuts both ways.

Also, Kevin Donoghue pointed out the economic effects are similar whether and Irish or Polish person leaves. Lower demand for housing -> more banking losses -> more bailouts. Also lower tax base -> higher tax burden.

Wow. JTO has trolled this site hard. People are leaving the country in droves, we don’t need graphs to tell us this. Maybe older people in the generation that wrecked the country haven’t noticed much difference, but then, they were never ones to pay much heed to problems facing the country.

Just to clarify. I was one of the posters objecting to the notion that EU accession states citizens leaving could be generally characterized as ‘not that bad really’, whereas Irish born citizens leaving was the national disaster reborn.

I accept Sarah’s correction on a matter of fact on the last thread,

That view of things stemmed originally, I think from here:

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/01/20/emigration/

When JtO said:

“Foreign nationals returning home is not emigration. It may have a similar effect on the demand for new houses. But, in terms of the sum of human happiness, a Polish person going back to his home and family in Cracow, after living a few in Dublin, is clearly not the same as someone from Donegal leaving his home and family and going to live in London.”

This seems to me to be speculative rather than empirical. It would take time, but I could put up a number of postings that assumed knowledge of the feelings of people coming or going.

It’s not that I’m claiming it’s all one thing or another, just that splitting out nationals vs non-nationals leaving is a distraction, and an odd sort of form of special pleading.

So I agree with the postings of Rory O’Farrell (anything to Lizzie?) and John McHale who have put things more clearly than I.

I also note the lack of discussion in the GE on the condition of immigrants, and wonder whether this is due to the lack of a vote.

For the record I agree with Marvin Gaye as to where my home is.

Rory O’Farrell: “Loathe as I am to defend the WSJ, though they made an obviously silly mistake about Irish people migrating to Poland, the broad thrust of the article rang true.”

I’m no fan of the WSJ either, but what you see as a mistake looks to me like a standard American journalistic convention. In the light of Gavin Kostick’s comment I’ll call it the Marvin Gaye Convention. Once you’ve lived in America for a while you belong to that set of people which Barrack Obama addresses as “my fellow Americans.” So just as
Arnold Schwarzenegger is American, Rotimi Adebari is Irish.

Of course we don’t always adhere to the Marvin Gaye Convention in Ireland. Kevin O’Higgins once referred to Eamon DeValera as “that long Spanish bastard.” But to the WSJ it must seem quite natural to define “Irish people” as those who happen to reside in Ireland.

They are leaving because of the willful incompetence of government and opposition and the collusion between the unions and Public Sector. Tomorrow fate finally catches up with FF and the man who has waited 37 years to come to power is going to assume a sort of control over what is left of the state. It is no surprise to me that we get smug individuals in overpaid jobs churning statistics and telling those that have to go to “have a good time…. enjoy yourselves.. sure it may not be as bad as you think… you you can always email, facebook and twitter the mother” We don’t need statistics to verify what is going on. It is sad the way some users of this site need a graph to interpret the exodus by our citizens they give economics a bad name. Have they not been to airport or do they think these people are going on holidays? Do they also need a graph to show them that unemployment is 450,000 or that the money that was set aside as a NPRF is decimated to the four winds with every political party envisaging raiding what is left of it.

Yesterday, AIB was worth 386 million yet the state has already pumped 7.2bn into it. We are now so insolvent that the reality of paying ponzi pensions in the future does not even register a blip on the radar screens. Former PD leader Mr. McDowell professed he had a “strong premonition” in the Sunday Independent that a “state of economic emergency” would be declared within a matter of weeks. Strange that, as I thought we were in a state of economic emergency since the September 08 I wonder what he thought the EU/IMF bailout of 67.5bn was all about? The exodus of up to 300,000 people at years end is just another symptom of a moribund economy, increasing negative equity, falling property prices, falling rents, and low tax receipts. I keep trying to explain that turning a dial on a machine that produces viagra or micro chips is a jobless recovery which is self defeating.

The only “burden sharing” we are going to see is that which will take place amongst the beasts of burden that still have jobs or positive cash flows for those in the private sector. Most public sector and front line jobs could not be paid without the 40% topping up from state borrowing every month.

And a other another thing….!!!(I’m on a roll…don’t stop me!!!!)

The formula of, export your problems is counter productive in a balance sheet recession…Ireland needs suckers that will stay, work, add value to the economy and then pay a very large proportion of that value up to the taxman to honor debts. If your smart and educated leave, then it just means fewer people to pay of a fixed pot of debt. Every economy is a very simple calculation at it’s core. It’s population times productivity minus essential living costs minus interest payments on existing debt. Well if debt is a fixed entity, then the key is to maximize population and lower living costs. But if population is leaving, then the reductions in living costs needed are even greater…..for the first time in Ireland’s history, you well connected gombeens actually need these suckers to stay..

This presentation of some real data by Prof. Walsh is indeed welcome. I think it should be related to another representation of some real data on external and internal economic balances (to which he was a party) presented by Prof. Honohan (prior to his elevation) in July 2009:
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/07/16/another-lap-for-hare/

In addition to a sustainable fiscal stance the achievement and maintenance of these balances should be the primary policy objectives for governments. (In passing, it would be all our interests if the major export surplus countries such as Germany, China, etc. were to re-orient their policy stance to focus on the achievement of these balances.)

In a small, open, regional economy levels of net migration are an outcome of success or failure in relation to these policy objectives. It would be stupid in the extreme to select a particular level of net migration as a policy traget.

While, perhaps, regretting that some people decide to leave in response to economic circumstances caused by previous policy failings, I think we should celebrate the freedom of individuals to make, and act upon, these choices (in most cases, I suspect, equipped with the education, skills and confidence their forbears lacked when they faced similar circumstances).

Great graph well done this site could do with more.

Bad News no matter who is leaving as it will not help the country. This little island is full of empty over priced houses. In fact every thing is way over priced possible due to the fact the 60 % of the houses have no mortgage allowing these home owners to pay over the odds where the remaining 40% are struggling. Allowing the domestic economy to die slowly will cause a long delay in the recovery and more people leaving. At some stage we will have to question which comes first the chicken or egg excessive disposable income for some is keeping prices high and costing jobs.

Does any one have a simple balance sheet explaining the state of the banks? i.e. mortgage , other loans, house hold deposits, bond holders and ECB funding as the numbers are been given out but not explained where is all the new money going.

If we could turn away for the moment as to whether or not some Poles leaving Kilkenny and returning to Cracow has the same effect on the sum total of human happiness as some Irish people leaving Donegal and moving to Sydney, and actually analyse the figures that Professor Walsh has brilliantly compiled and displayed. Even allowing for the difficulties, I would like to see more threads such as this opened for serious analysis by intelligent and statistically-literate people such as Professor Walsh and John McHale, instead of the site’s obsession with opening threads on every ill-informed reference to Ireland made by quack journalists from the foreign media, which frankly smacks of the traditional southern Irish (but markedly absent in the northern Irish) inferiority complex This is my analysis. We will not know for several years whether it is accurate or not.

(1) To analyse intelligently, one must distinguish between the long-term trend and the short-term fluctuations. This is true of economic analysis in general. In economics, nothing ever moves in a continuous straight line ad infinitum. Rather, it follows a trend line, with occasional violent short-term fluctuations about that trend. Being able to distinguish the long-term trend from the short-term fluctuations is the primary requirement of good economic analysis.

(2) The long-term migratory trend is clearly up. By that I mean that, over the long-term, the migratory flow is clearly changing in an inward direction, resulting from the fact that, as the decades have passed, Ireland has improved its relative standing in relation to GDP per capita, living standards, employment rate, health, housing conditions, education standards, housing conditions etc etc etc. This is clear enough from Professor Walsh’s chart if you draw a ‘best-fit’ line through it. But, it would be even more true if the figures went back to the mid 1800s and you drew a ‘best-fit’ line through those.

(3) Pre-independence, there was massive net emigration every year from the 1840s on and the population fell every year from the 1840s on. In the last 70 years of British rule, the population fell by over 60 per cent, a phenomenon no other country has ever experienced. Even in the final years of British rule, the population was still falling sharply. It is a myth, invented by anti-nationalist Dublin 4 revisionist historians, that the final decades of British rule were quite benevolent. The population actually fell by nearly 200,000 in the final decade and a half of British rule.

(4) Post-independence (at the risk of simplification, but this is a blog, not a PhD thesis), we can divide the ninety years since then into six distinct periods, each belonging to one of two categories. There were three long periods when the migratory flows improved (ie net emigration fell or net immigration rose) and three (relatively) short periods when they worsened. Critically, however, each period shows an improvement compared with the previous period of the same category, resulting from the fact that, as the decades have passed, Ireland has improved its relative standing in relation to GDP per capita, living standards, employment rate, health, housing conditions, education standards, housing conditions etc etc etc. If we look at the six periods, one-by-one:

(a) Mid-1920s to mid-1950s: The population stabilises, virtually identical population in mid-50s to mid-20s. Although poor compared with what came after, this was much better than under British rule when every census showed a large fall in population compared with the previous census from the 1840s on.

(b) Mid- to late-1950s: Recession!! Net emigration spikes up and the population falls. However, over the course of the recession, net emigration is much lower than under British rule and the population fall is much less than under British rule.

(c) Late-1950s to mid-1980s: Long period (quarter century) of economic growth. Ireland narrows gap in GNI per capita with other countries. Population grows by 25 per cent, which is unprecedented since pre-famine. During this period, there are as many years of net immigration as net emigration and, averaged over the entire period, there is close to zero net emigration (clear from Professor Walsh’s chart).

(d) Mid- to late-1980s. Recession again!! Net emigration spikes up and the population falls. However, over the course of the recession, net emigration is much lower than over the course of the mid- to late-1950s recession and the population fall is much less than over the course of the mid- to late-1950s recession. This is a reflection of the fact that GNI per capita in Ireland in the 1980s was around 75 per cent of UK/EU average, compared with around 60 per cent in the 1950s.

(e) Late-1980s to 2007: Long period (over two decades) of economic growth. Ireland overtakes other countries in GNI per capita. Population grows by 35 per cent, which is greater than in the previous (late-1950s to mid-1980s) period of growth. During this period, there is net immigration almost every year.

(f) 2007 to 2010: Recession again!! Net emigration spikes up. As of now, we don’t know the final outcome. But, based on the above analysis, these are my predictions:

** just as in the two previous recessions (mid- to late-1950s and mid- to late-1980s), net emigration will fall off quickly as growth resumes (actually, it has resumed, but, as with unemployment, there is a time lag of a year or two before the effect on migration flows is felt) – it is clear from Professor Walsh’s chart just how quickly it does fall off once growth resumes (look at the direction of the lines in the chart for 1961 and 1989)

** following the pattern established over the past century, over the course of this recession, total net emigration (certainly of Irish nationals) will turn out to be considerably less than over the course of the previous recession (mid- to late-1980s) and much less than over the course of the recession before that (mid- to late-1950s), reflecting the fact that GNI per capita in Ireland is now 100 per cent or more of the UK/EU average, compared with 75 per cent in the 1980s and 60 per cent in the 1950s. So, far, this is again borne out by the figures in Professor Walsh’s chart, which clearly show net emigration so far to be less than in the previous recession and much less if only Irish nationals are considered.

** this will turn out to be the first recession since pre-famine in which the population rose during the recession – indeed, it may well turn out that the population rose every year during this recession – this is a relection of what I wrote at the start that, notwithstanding any short-term fluctuations,
‘the long-term migratory trend is clearly up’,

**following the resumption of economic growth, there will then be another long period of mostly net immigration and rapid population growth, at the very least of equal magnitude to that which pertained during the previous long period of economic growth from the late-1980s until 2007

It should be clear by Easter 2016 whether or not this analysis proves accurate. I expect the vast majority of posters to ridicule it. It worries me not. If this site had been around in the late 1950s or the late 1980s, they would have ridiculed it even more then.

Unfortunately, I will not be able to continue this discussion for now, as I head with some trepidation for a (first-ever) skiing holiday in the French Alps this afternoon. No doubt ESRI will count me as an emigrant. While there, I intend conducting a poll of French waiters on their attitude to Ireland’s CT rate, which so obsesses our French poster, Dominique. I will be amazed if even one has ever heard of it

@Michael Hennigan

In mentioning Guinness, definitely an iconic “Irish” brand, you’re introducing the very interesting topic of Ireland’s ( supposedly “strategic” positioning) in the global food and drinks sector.

I’m not sure what it has to do with this thread topic of migration/emigration other than as a tip of the hat to Irish emigrants crying into their beer in “Irish” bars around the world but it certainly raises the vastly hyped topic of “Brand Ireland” so beloved of FF and much hyped at propagandafests like the “Diaspora” event at Farmleigh a while back.

As you know, Guinness was, and Diageo is, a British company, stout is a tiny, British product category within the beer sector, Diageo is primarily a “premium SPIRITS” company ( no. 1 in the world, just ahead of Pernod Ricard), its global net sales are “challenged” right now and any growth in its beer portfolio comes from “local” companies or brands it has acquired in Africa and Asia. ( Tusker in Kenya, Windhoek in Namibia/South Africa, Tiger in Jamaica and a little locally-brewed Guinness in Nigeria and Malaysia).

As with its other “Irish” brand, Baileys, ( invented one lunchtime in a pub in London) no global marketing decisions at Diageo are made in Ireland. The same applies to most Irish whiskey marketing which takes place here in Clichy, just outside Paris, at Pernod Ricard HQ.

Although Kerry Group claims “Kerrygold” is Ireland’s only global brand in the food sector, Kerry is primarily a ( very good) ingredients ( milk powder, whey, casein and colourings and flavours) company and the vast bulk ( I use the word advisedly) of its products today are neither recognisable to an end consumer nor “manufactured” in Ireland.

In fact, in substantive European or global consumer trade terms, there is only one truly Irish brand….. RyanAir.

But, Michael, you have certainly raised a very interesting subject. ( I’ll send you a (short) paper on it I scribbled a year or so ago if you like!)

Worth having a serious conversation about somewhere!

@ JTO

It’s a pretty safe bet our population will rise, we are having more babies than ever before. At a greater rate than any other EU country, so i doubt anyone will ridicule or disagree with you on that count.

@ Richard

what error?

@Jarlath
@Seamus Coffey

Sorry, Jarlath.

I was referring to Seamus Coffey correctly pointing out that Kerrygold was a brand from the Irish Dairy Board ( from Tony O’Reilly’s early years with Bord Bainne as it was then if I’m not mistaken, again!, not from the Kerry Group and in reponse to my earlier point about the lack of internationally recognisable Irish brands. Particularly in the apparently “strategic” Irish food and drinks sector.

Michael Hennigan had made an earlier reference to Guinness, an iconic “Irish” brand conceived and developed, just like Baileys Irish cream, by British or other non-Irish companies and multinationals past and present.

@ Celtic Phoenix – who is Celtic Phoenix??

@Other movers, emigrants, migrants, footlosse fun-lovin

FG tops poll in virtual ballot
Fine Gael is on course to lead the next Government, according to the first count of a poll conducted among Irish emigrants.
The poll was carried out over ten days on [www.ballotbox.ie]
5,580 Irish emigrants in 124 different countries voted in the poll. IP technology was used to block voters in Ireland, and passport information was used to discourage non-Irish people from voting. This is the first time such a poll has been attempted.

The aim was to highlight that Irish emigrants are immediately disenfranchised upon leaving the country. This is in stark contrast to many other democracies, including the United States, the UK, Australia, Canada, and most EU countries.

In the poll, Enda Kenny’s party won 30 per cent of first preference votes, with the Labour party on 25 per cent. Independents form the next largest group with 18 per cent of first preference votes. Sinn Féin is on 13 per cent, with Fianna Fáil and the Greens tied in last position at 8 per cent.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0225/breaking56.html