What If Ireland Defaults?

This post was written by Seamus Coffey

A new book edited by Brian Lucey, Charles Larkin and Constantin Gurdgiev has just been published by Orpen Press.  Details of the book are available from Orpen Press, Amazon Kindle and others.

The book was formally launched last night in The Library Long Room in Trinity College by Senator Sean Barrett, whose speech is available here.  Here is a short extract:

In the words of a great TCD man, Oscar Wilde, Miss Prism tells Cecily to read her political economy in the absence of her tutor. “The chapter on the fall of the rouble you may omit. These monetary problems have their melodramatic side.”

Ireland’s economic policy unfortunately followed Miss Prism’s advice. We sleepwalked into the euro currency and the regulatory body played lots of golf with bankers through an unsustainable property boom.   Stephen Kinsella notes that we doubled the national debt in 2008 by bailing out the banks. Relative to GNP this was a gold medal in regulatory capture by world standards. Regulatory capture of governments by national airlines or sheltered sector professions pales into insignificance compared to the Irish bank capture of the exchequer.

111 Responses to “What If Ireland Defaults?”

  1. The Dork of Cork Says:

    The euro masters believe (perhaps rightly) that they have bypassed politics by making the monetory authority (I love that word) a political authority.
    The recent Irish CB monetory financing of a insolvent bank with the ECBs nod , not a illiquid one (Lombard street is a distant memory it seems) and then the subsequent offloading of this debt onto the fiscal authority supposedly to prevent inflation ( my eye this is pure criminality in my book) illustrates the political monopoly of power these bastards truely have.
    Cut them off from the tax spigot and they have nothing as their assets are worthless without their credit hyperinfaltion games that burn the surplus every time it is created by us after these credit fueled recessions.
    I say no more to Lawson like boom & bust extraction games.

  2. Al Says:

    Congrats to the lads on their publication.com

  3. seafóid Says:

    What if Ireland isn’t allowed to default, as per Greece ? All debt subject to UK law, that sort of thing. There is a Stephen King book about a man who is rescued post accident by a nurse . He assumes he’s going to recover but the nurse proceeds to do awful things to him. The ECB could be the nurse.

  4. Livonian Says:

    It appears sales of this book are going very well. So congratulations to all involved.:)

    Personally I do not think Ireland will need to default unless it is the result of a political decision. However I do believe it is a discussion we should not be afraid to have.

    I look forward to reading comments on this book which I have not read yet but will try to as soon as possible.

  5. David O'Donnell Says:

    What if? Shurely When?

  6. Peter Stapleton Says:

    Shurley Constantin would have pointed out to the great TCD Senator
    that the correct reference is to the Indian Rupee:

    “Cecily, you will read your Political Economy in my absence. The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational. Even these metallic problems have their melodramatic side.”

  7. Bond. Eoin Bond... Says:

    @ Seafoid

    “All debt subject to UK law, that sort of thing”

    All Irish debt is subject to Irish law.

  8. seafóid Says:

    @BEB

    Over to Roubini

    http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/03/07/greece%e2%80%99s-private-creditors-are-the-lucky-ones/#ixzz1oY34DzHQ

    “The new bonds will also be subject to English law, where the old bonds fell under Greek jurisdiction. So if Greece were to leave the eurozone, it could no longer pass legislation to convert euro-denominated debt into new drachma debt. This is an amazing sweetener for creditors.”

    That’s the kind of stroke I expect the ECB will pull if Ireland thinks it can default

  9. bazza Says:

    A timely piece. Looking forward to reading it.

    With debt going to top out at 140% of GNP in the best case scenario, then default or restructuring is assured. What policy makers should ensure is that the restructuring is done properly and that it is immediately obvious that our sov debt is sustainable after the restructuring event. What we definately do not want is a Greek style half-hearted restructuring, precipitated by economic collapse, after which the debt is still unsustainable.

    At this stage, the minimum that would get us back on a sustainable path is if the Promissory Notes are restructured with a reduction of NPV of about 70%.

    The worst case, and the scenario that the ECB/EU have in mind for us, is that we endure a second bailout, we suffer 3-5 years of further austerity and are eventually are forced into a half-hearted restructuring as a condition of a 3rd bailout. I have a feeling that Noonan and Kenny will go along with this all the way.

  10. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Eoin

    For the moment! Look what they have done to Greece under the latest deal. Restructured Greek debt to be covered by UK Law.

  11. zhou_enlai Says:

    @seafoid

    beat me to it!

  12. bazza Says:

    One further point on a day that the ECB left rates unchanged in the face of the competing forces of a Eurozone recession and pressure from the Bundesbank for a rate hike.

    If anyone thinks a restrucuring can be avoided, think about what the ECB reaction will be if there is even a hint of recovery in the periphery. And think about the impact that will have on the nascent recovery and residental mortgages here.

  13. Bond. Eoin Bond... Says:

    @ Zhou/Seafoid

    eh, new Greek debt is now under UK law purely because they DID default…

  14. DavidG Says:

    We will be paying it all back (at some stage) according to the ECB or else default as our only option.

    http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/draghi-expects-ireland-to-meet-annual-repayments-for-promissory-notes-406881-Apr2012/

  15. zhou_enlai Says:

    @eoin

    That is correct. The new debt is governed by foreign laws because (i) it was a Troika sponsored deal, and (ii) Greece has very little economic credibility.

    Greece now has an unsustainable debt governed by foreign laws. How’s that for a desperate outcome!

    I don’t know if Lucey, Gurdgiev and Larkin address whether we would be able to issue debt governed by domestic law in the aftermath of a default. It is unlikely I will get around to reading this book to find out.

  16. zhou_enlai Says:

    BTW, I note form the front page that shane ross is surprised he understood it. That makes two of us ;)

  17. Bond. Eoin Bond... Says:

    @ Zhou

    and (iii) they restructured their domestic bonds by changing the law, so no one wants to get caught out on that again.

  18. Longtail Says:

    Zhou
    So having not read it you still commentate? Is that hubris, malice, folly or just plain rudeness? Here’s an idea: do as I’m doing, buy it , read it and then comment. To do else is to show yourself a churl. Honestly, the level of buck ignorance….

  19. Longtail Says:

    Yhe table of contents seems interesting: lots of people including SC and a Nobel laureate. But that will pass poor Zhou by…

  20. seafóid Says:

    @ BEB

    Greece got shafted. Ireland is in the waiting room.
    Bondwallahs want their money back and if it comes to a default scenario Ireland will get the Greek treatment. As you wrote, nobody wants to get caught out again. The PR savaging will precede it.

  21. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Eoin / Seafoid

    I checked to see if Amazon would let me have a look inside the book to see if the three amigos had dealt witht his but alas only the front cover was visible.

  22. Longtail Says:

    Err Zhou that’s incorrect. There’s a look inside and indeed a toC. But, you probably haven’t gone to amazon either :)

  23. Seamus Coffey Says:

    Here’s a Table of Contents which may not be easy to read without formatting but is as good as it gets on here.

    List of Acronyms ix
    About the Contributors xi
    Introduction 1
    Setting the Scene 5
    1 Debt, Crises and Default from a Parliamentary Perspective, Sean Barrett 7
    2 Crises and Contagion: A Survey, Anzhela Knyazeva, Diane Knyazeva and Joseph Stiglitz 17
    Ireland 51
    3 Debt Restructuring in Ireland: Orderly, Selective and Unavoidable, Constantin Gurdgiev 53
    4 Ireland’s Public Debt – Tell Me a Story We Have Not Heard Yet, Seamus Coffey 69
    5 A very Irish Default, or When Is a Default Not a Default?, Stephen Kinsella 87
    6 How to Survive on the Titanic: Ireland’s Relationship with Europe, Megan Greene 99
    Country Studies 109
    7 The Russian Crisis and the Crisis of Russia, Constantin Gurdgiev 111
    8 Iceland: The Accidental Hero, Elaine Byrne and Huginn F. Þorsteinsson 135
    9 Irish Public Debt: A View through the Lens of the Argentine Default , Tony Philips 149
    10 Coring out the Big Apple: New York’s Fiscal Crisis, Sam Roberts 173
    11 When Cities Default, Marc Tomljanovich 187
    Perspectives 197
    12 A Market Participant’s Perspective on Debt and Default , Peter Brown 199
    13 A Mortgage Broker’s Perspective on Debt and Default, Karl Deteer 207
    14 The IMF and the Dilemmas of Sovereign Default, Gary O’Callaghan 217
    15 A Politician’s Perspective on Debt and Default, Peter Mathews 235
    16 A Financial Journalist’s Perspective on Debt and Default, John Walsh 245
    17 A Behavioural Economist’s Perspective on Debt and Default, Michael Dowling 253
    18 A Political Activists and Businessperson’s Perspective on Debt and Default, Declan Ganley 265
    Index 279

  24. Paddy M Says:

    @seafóid

    There is a Stephen King book about a man who is rescued post accident by a nurse . He assumes he’s going to recover but the nurse proceeds to do awful things to him. The ECB could be the nurse.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_%28film%29

  25. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Seamus Coffey

    Thanks. That looks more interesting than I expected.

    @Longtail

    I did go to amazon using the link above. Further to your post I also searched for it on amazon in case only the kindle version didn’t have a look inside. Maybe it is a Java thing.

  26. Longtail Says:

    See Zhou..never prejudge a boom, either by cover or worse by author.

  27. Longtail Says:

    Boom=book. Bloody smartphones…

  28. paul quigley Says:

    Very good to see this bit of analysis hitting the shelves so soon after the Macroeconomic Stability Report. I suppose a lot of the ‘what ifs’ depend on the ‘what else’s’ which are about the place. The biggest domino to fall is Spain, with useful updates on this link.

    If, or when that mother goes down, all bets are off.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Edward-Hugh/103632406357698?v=wall

    Hard to disagree with the Dork’s pungent assessments. We are in the grip of a plutocratic tyranny.

  29. Livonian Says:

    @Seamus

    FYI the list of contents are easy to read .

    @all

    There are a lot of interesting (in fact all) topics in the list of contents. One chapter that jumps out at me right now (without having read the book) is chapter 11 “When cities default”.

    I find city budgets/debts/deficits to be an interesting topic because I often wonder (when calculating national debt) how transparent certain EU/EZ countries are about their actual debts and deficits.

    IMHO Irish national debt and deficit is easy to calculate (whether we choose to in/exclude IBRC and NAMA) because of central funding, central taxation and, currently, no right for local authorities to issue bonds etc.

    I wonder how transparent it is elsewhere throughout Europe and what “skeletons” may actually be in fiscal cupboards?

    I recently came across a very interesting/alarming argument and claim that the actual national debt of France is a whopping 146% of GDP which may explain a lot of nervousness over there. I also understand “central/local debt” was a topic of discussion when the the ECB (and Finland?) were trying to “rush” Estonia onto the list of EZ flags in 2011.

  30. Ceterisparibus Says:

    @Bond Eoin Bond
    A question…
    I see David McWilliams saying (Indo today) that the ECB took a 50% haircut on their Greek bonds.
    Is this incorrect, I think it is.
    Not good.

  31. seafóid Says:

    What if Ireland defaults ?

    Nobody will be prosecuted
    Nobody will go to jail.

  32. Ceterisparibus Says:

    The Irish Times headline is noteworthy
    “ECB’s Draghi cautious on Irish promissory note plans”

    Can they not interpret comments in the IT. The reality is Draghi told us to p off…..
    “He offered no direct comment on talks between the Government and the EU-IMF troika to replace the promissory notes with EFSF or ESM bailout fund bonds, saying he was simply taking note of the deferral deal.

    He described that initiative as a “completely Irish operation” and said the bank believes the Government “has very good chances” to return to private debt markets. “We expect that future redemptions will be met according to the schedule to which the government has committed itself,” he said.”

    In other words..borrow the money and pay it back on time.

  33. Paul W Says:

    @ CP
    +1
    But we seem to be pissing in the wind to ourselves on that fact. “Spin” is the Official Ireland way….facts be damned.

  34. TRP Says:

    @Seamus

    I have enormous respect for what you write and your work which follows common sense lines and adds up and is not sensationalist. Some of the other contributors to this publication leave a lot to be desired when they put pen to paper which somehow they think makes them Gods!!!!

  35. Longtail Says:

    TRP
    Which commentators would that be? Joe Stiglitz? Peter Browne? that Kinsella fellah?
    Do tell…:)

  36. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Longtail

    Are you on the sauce?

  37. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Longtail

    scratch that - i see it was your smartphone acting up

  38. Livonian Says:

    @Ceteris

    “……The reality is Draghi told us to p off…..”

    Or maybe : The reality is Draghi told us he was p….d off

    Either way I am pretty sure one “team” was told to “p off” sometime over the last ten days and it would not surprise me if it was the Frankfurt team currently being managed by an Italian.

    I also would not be surprised that a Limerick lad was not the only one “re-emphasising” the “suggestion” last week in Copenhagen. :)

  39. Paul W Says:

    @ L Results are what matters. No “bonus” for no result; none either for “spin”.

  40. Ceterisparibus Says:

    @Livonian

    I suppose you could say he was negotiating with himself..
    “He described that initiative as a “completely Irish operation”

  41. grumpy Says:

    Very interesting stuff on the wires today about Germany - powerful unions going after 6-7% wage increases - reminiscent of twenty years or more ago. Very deja vu.

    Would urge those who are not long standing Bundesbank geeks not to ignore this with respect to policy and comms over the next year, periphery meltdown or not.

    You have been warned!

  42. The Alchemist Says:

    The Irish have always behaved like badgers at official and elite levels. It is among the main habits which prevents reform in the country. It also helps explain the perverse interest in the misfortune of other nations rather than rectify the local potholes. No mirrors at home.

    There is no way back. Standards of living have fallen for the unemployed and many in the private sector. The idea that similar change in circumstances can be staved off by jobs for life in the public service and the butter of FDI is wearing thin. But it is part of the culture of entitlement.

    The government has not faced up to the impact of the drop in living standards nor that it will persist. It can be managed, but only through radical action in personal debt in my opinion.

    Default is great around the dinner table after a few jars, but where is the money to come from?

  43. DOCM Says:

    @ grumpy

    They have simply woken up to the fact that they have been taken for a ride by the famous “Mittelstand” for the past ten years. The benefits of the boom have been as unequally shared in Germany as they have been in other economies. Capital has taken most of the gains to the detriment of organised labour. The situation is even more dire for non-union workers.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0330/1224314097416.html

    This is not to imply that Germany is anything other than an admirable social market economy with social protections to be envied. What it does suggest, however, is that elements of the economy are seriously skewed and the CDU/CSU is now hoist by its own petard viz. the inability, because of the dogmatic commitment to budgetary balance, to run the necessary counter-cyclical policies to correct these problems

  44. grumpy Says:

    @docm

    Yes, but the key thing is that some of us reckon Germany can and should tolerate wage rises to have labour make up lost share of GDP, because it is an ideal anti-inflationary context.

    The question is, just how is this going to be allowed to happen, if at all? Leadership would have to come from popular political opinion, and there don’t seem, to be intellectual enablers in place to lead a campaign and allow that to occur.

    This is why I am so skeptical of the “Fiscal Treaty opens gate / lays path ” argument - yes it does, but that is irrelevant if the target audience being pandered to doesn’t want to use said gat/path.

  45. Brian Woods II Says:

    I can’t find the chapter which recommends selling Anglo’s deposits as the answer to all our woes.

  46. Philip II Says:

    In which Brian Woods II shows : never drink and blog….
    :)

  47. Philip II Says:

    BW2 : your not the same Brian Woods as was a senior actuary at AIB through the boom years are you? Actuaries …risk/reward and all that? Surely not?

  48. Paul Ferguson Says:

    It’s important to remember that digital money is created whenever a bank loan is approved. And so every digital euro, or 94% of our money supply, has a matching debt.

    In fact due to interest we owe more digital money than exists and so it’s impossible for every loan to go according to plan.

    Defaulting is inevitable under this system. However, we don’t have to run our economy this way. We could declare digital money as legal tender which would allow us to remove current accounts as liabilities of the banking sector.

    We could then remove debtors from the balance sheets of the banks without causing bank insolvency.

  49. Paul W Says:

    @ PF “…so every digital euro, or 94% of our money supply, has a matching debt. ” Maybe that is an economist notion (don’t know, I’m not an economist TBTG….where does the 94% come from?). However, in the real world, that’s not strictly true. Profit creates capital, a more “positive” liability than debt. Meaningful and sustainable profit requires “growth” in output….One can have a temporary, non-sustainable profit where cost is deleted /reduced below declining income…..where Ireland Inc. is at now. Unless you get the growth, you are ‘doomed” at some point as income goes down. Remember liabilities = assets in an accounting sense…is that true in the economist world? So, if assets reduce in value, so do the liabilities. That’s a fundamentalproblem with the accounting discipline in the world right now…..

  50. Mickey Hickey Says:

    Greece negotiated a partial default because the creditors and their governments decided that some lucre is better than no lucre. There was blood on the streets of Athens and other Greek cities. Politicians were rescued by helicopter and armored personnel carriers. Greece has had a revolution within living memory and is quite capable of having another one. It would most likely take the form of widespread public violence with the armed forces coming in to restore order. This would be followed by a declaration of national emergency with parliament being disbanded and a military dictatorship ruling the country.

    The EU, ECB EC would then be dealing with the Greek military who are not as predictable as the politicians. In other words all bets would be off.

    If you can see Ireland on a similar trajectory then we could negotiate.

    There are a number of scenarios that could still unfold:

    1) Maintain the status quo. (most likely)

    2) Pull out of the EZ and restore the Punt. (Sweet Jesus save us) (sixty percent depreciation)

    3) Form a bloc led by France to set up a separate and distinct monetary union. The roadblock countries could remain in the EZ namely Germany, Finland, Austria, Holland, Slovakia. ( preferable to 2) (33% depreciation)

    4) Throw Germany out of the EZ. ( The threat alone should bring Merkel to her senses) (20% depreciation)

    I am not a betting man when the circumstances are uncertain. If I was I would bet on #1. Like rabbits frozen in the glare of the dazzler, that is our leadership.

  51. rf Says:

    “A Market Participant’s Perspective on Debt and Defaul
    13 A Mortgage Broker’s Perspective on Debt and Default
    15 A Politician’s Perspective on Debt and Default
    16 A Financial Journalist’s Perspective on Debt and Default,
    17 A Behavioural Economist’s Perspective on Debt and Default,
    18 A Political Activists and Businessperson’s Perspective on Debt and Default”

    In between Declan Ganley and my mortgage brokers brain farts I must have missed “a citizens perspective on debt and default”..or societal consequences of default. (A behavioural economist? It reads like a whats hot and whats not list)
    How is any of this anything but speculating on unknowable counterfactuals?
    A few multidisciplinary case studies would have been something, what societies, economies and individuals look like after default. But once again another day out for Irelands closed shop of public intellectuals.
    (And I mean Declan Ganley? Is this a parody?)

  52. rf Says:

    “Debt, Crises and Default from a Parliamentary Perspective” and
    “A Politician’s Perspective on Debt and Default”

    This is just redundant

  53. Paul W Says:

    @ Mickey Hickey The Greek military scenario feels credible…in comparison to the Irish situation: I’m now imagining the Irish military leadership based in the Curragh surrounded by sheep…..

    You say (as one option): “Pull out of the EZ and restore the Punt. (Sweet Jesus save us) (sixty percent depreciation)”. But isn’t depreciation of people’s main asset, their house, at that point anyway…? Plus all the unemployment and related (e.g. emigration, social degradation, etc). Question - is it that leaving the euro will affect those who are “ok Jack”on the current EU welfare funded scenario i.e. the minority (although a large subset of the population all the same) versus the ‘welfare’of Ireland’s overall society /all the people?

  54. Paul W Says:

    @ rf
    +1

  55. Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Says:

    @ rf

    I was thinking along the same lines myself.

    Alchemist points out that not much has changed for some; a lot for others.

    “If we are to create an economy that can sustain the number of jobs we need, we must not only seek to attract the next Google or Microsoft to Ireland, but also to create the next Google or Microsoft here in Ireland,” Richard Bruton said yesterday.

    Remember the Innovation Taskforce?? — a 28-strong group of optimists and delusionists.

    I’m an optimist myself but there is a little thingy called the market and its size etc which suggests that yearnings like Bruton’s are in the realm of fairytales.

    How is this for a fairytale - - or more accurately fact that sustains fairytales?

    The American factory worker on average produces $180,000 worth of goods annually; sales per employee in the Irish chemicals sector are $2.4m.

  56. Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Says:

    There is nothing wrong with debate on any financial crisis topic.

    A topic such as this is of course likely to be much more popular than one on internal reform.

    This book maybe different but usually when other country examples are cited, inconvenient facts negating the comparison are seldom cited. Soya beans, fish for anyone?

    Finally, most of the contributors appear to be in cushy positions (with those platinum-plated pensions) or are well-off.

    Would the mayhem that would follow a unilateral default risk any job lesses in the thousands of firms that have survived four difficult years or is that an academic question?

  57. Longtail Says:

    Michael Hennigan
    “This book maybe different ”
    Wouldnt it be better to read it before commenting? I mean, thats what people usualy do, isnt it?
    As for the provenance of the authors : not sure what the group version is of “ad hom” but you sure do indulge in it a lot. Again, why not read the book as I am doing (good, a bit disjointed in parts) and then comment. On the merits of the arguments not on the organizational origin of the authors. To do otherwise is simple prejudice as in pre-judging

  58. Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Says:

    @ Longtail

    Thanks for the advice Mr/Mrs Troll.

    As for your asinine comment, Seamus Coffey opened this thread presumably to generate some general comments and the announce the publication.

    It had been launched on the previous evening.

    Given the other ignorant comment that you made above, if not a troll, then you are in the wrong place.

  59. Colm Brazel Says:

    Book sounds interesting, hope to read it :-)

  60. Longtail Says:

    Michael H
    jeezely crow…defensive or what? It was and is on amazon/nook etc. Which is downloadable. Gosh, your touchy aren’t you?
    To reiterate: you comment without reading and scorn the authors for their origins. That is pre-judging. And you call me a troll? Zhou had the grace to go “Err, yeah, ok…” and thats what debate is about.

  61. David O'Donnell Says:

    FYI

    Deposits up at The Saintly Columbanus Bank AG - Capital Flights of Fancy direct from Knock to Zurich on RyanAir - Standing Room Only.

  62. Bond. Eoin Bond... Says:

    @ CP

    “I see David McWilliams saying (Indo today) that the ECB took a 50% haircut on their Greek bonds.”

    Here’s his paragraph:

    “The hardliners at the European Central Bank, who are obviously in the ascendancy now, would baulk at the ECB being involved as a broker in such a debt restructuring. But then again, in Greece, the ECB took a massive 50pc-plus haircut on its exposure to Greek bonds. So stranger things have happened.”

    Your gut instinct is correct - he’s making this up. ECB have not taken any “haircut” on their exposure. All they’ve done is say they’ll give back their profits (they bought at an average of 70 cents, and they will be repaid at par) to the national governments, who can then decide what to do with the money.

  63. zhou_enlai Says:

    @Michael Hennigan

    The effects of default on internal reform might be an interesting one.

    As far as I can tell, the unilateral default ship sailed when we renewed the guarantee. It may have even sailed before that with the ELGS.

    The question that interests me is what to expect if we do end up in that situation. The biggest known unknown at that stage is whether we will exit the euro.

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:

    A. Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.

    B. Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.

    C. Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.

    D. The Energy Crisis.

    E. Liklihood of global political instability due to A, B, C, D and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  64. zhou_enlai Says:

    The effects of default on internal reform might be an interesting one.

    As far as I can tell, the unilateral default ship sailed when we renewed the guarantee. It may have even sailed before that with the ELGS.

    The question that interests me is what to expect if we do end up in that situation. The biggest known unknown at that stage is whether we will exit the euro.

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:

    A. Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.

    B. Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.

    C. Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.

    D. The Energy Crisis.

    E. Liklihood of global political instability due to A, B, C, D and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  65. zhou_enlai Says:

    test

  66. zhou_enlai Says:

    Is there a ban on posts over a certain length? I composed a masterpiece but it is not appearing.

  67. David O'Donnell Says:

    @BeB

    Is that the DavieMac ‘lad’ who guaranteed de banks? What to do with all these photogenic celebrity economists? Spose he’s lookin for an Adjuct someplace! I hear George Hook is now commenting on economics. And on Patronising Pat just now listering to Senator Power, X-Minister Fianna Fail Hanafin’s protege, lecturing Fine Gael on corruption in public life. Kept the volume low - don’t want Blind Biddy to get too agitated over Easter … must enjoy the sheer escapism of The real Masters and the Heineken Cup …

    I’m concerned at the ECB’s very strong support for The Conflationist Fallacy and turning those Prommie Notes into Sovereign Debt ….

  68. David O'Donnell Says:

    … but I’d probably take 100 years at 0.001% interest only payments - on ALL vichy-banking-system related debt.

  69. David O'Donnell Says:

    @zhou

    A masterpiece? Of the William ORPEN or the Roderick O’Connor variety? Aesthetics you know … impressionism and all dat.

  70. zhou_enlai Says:

    @MH

    The effects of default on internal reform might be an interesting one.
    As far as I can tell, the unilateral default ship sailed when we renewed the guarantee. It may have even sailed before that with the ELGS. The question that interests me is what to expect if we do end up in that situation. The biggest known unknown at that stage is whether we will exit the euro.

  71. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:

    A. Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.

    B. Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.

    C. Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.

    D. The Energy Crisis.

    E. Liklihood of global political instability due to A, B, C, D and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  72. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:
    (A) Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.
    (B) Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.
    (C) Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.
    (D) The Energy Crisis.
    (E) Liklihood of global political instability due to A, B, C, D and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  73. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:
    (I) Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.
    (II) Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.
    (III) Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.
    (IV) The Energy Crisis.
    (V) Liklihood of global political instability due to I, II, III, IV and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  74. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. This will accelerate if things get worse. Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

  75. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. It will accelerate if things get worse.

    Such acceleration will turn into a quantum shift if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

  76. zhou_enlai Says:

    @DOD

    It was more cormac McCarthy. Cold, spare and bleak.

  77. zhou_enlai Says:

    My expectation is that we won’t act unilaterally. We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. It will accelerate if our finances deteriorate further.

    Such acceleration will be dramatic if we actually default, i.e., restructure or experience a credit default event. We will sign away everything in the hope of working our way out of it.

  78. zhou_enlai Says:

    This to me is the short view. The long view has more serious and bigger threats which Irish politicians and mainstream journalists have not contemplated in any detail, viz:
    (I) Inevitable shringking of incomes and living standards (for the 99%) in a globalised economy.
    (II) Inevitable high levels of unemployment in a technologically advanced and technologically convergent globalised world.
    (III) Global Food shortages. This is a major issue in circumstances where we are losing our sovereignty through bilateral arrangements rather than through EU integration.
    (IV) The Energy Crisis.
    (V) Liklihood of global political instability due to I, II, III, IV and the decline of USA global hegemony.

  79. Brian Woods II Says:

    @ Philip II

    Thanks for confirming BEB’s speculation that you are a certain prof in disguise.

  80. David O'Donnell Says:

    @Zhou

    Objective Realism then ….

    http://www.google.ie/search?q=munch+%22The+Scream%22&hl=en&lr=&as_qdr=all&prmd=imvns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=N3×9T7PIEJGLhQeIzvS-DA&ved=0CD4QsAQ&biw=1280&bih=599

  81. The Dork of Cork Says:

    CSO car Reg for March out today
    Decrease of 18.4% in new private cars licensed in February
    There were 10,993 new private cars licensed in February 2012, compared with 13,470 in February 2011, a decrease of 18.4%.
    The number of new goods vehicles licensed in February 2012 was 1,455 compared with 1,349 in the corresponding month last year - an increase of 7.9%.
    The licensing figures also show that:
    In February 2012, the total number of all vehicles licensed was 17,608 compared with 20,117 in the corresponding month last year - a decrease of 12.5%.

    Can’t for the life of me understand why can’t the goverment use the one advantage of the euro ( the ability to import cheap capital Goods) to their advantage by creating a new 90g per km A+ Band.
    Its probally the fiscal boys wanting to convert waste into absurd tax returns.
    Our Transport policey is a glorious stinking mess.

  82. Paul W Says:

    @ zhou “We are in a managed default situation as it is. We are slowly signing away our assets and rights. This process will decelerate if we start to recover. It will accelerate if our finances deteriorate further. ”
    +1
    Simply a debtor slavishly servicing debt, with liquidity support from the creditors preventing default on unsustainable debt. The debt service programme is not there to “rescue” Ireland. You are right - if there is recovery, there will be increased debt service extraction. That’s how it works. Recovery (or even preventing social unrest) would simply be a welcome aside for the creditors as the chances of recovery of their money is thereby increased, which is their primary objective.

    The difference between the Yeahs and the Nays is that the former thinks Ireland Inc. is a viable “going concern”, in a kind of Receivership, capable of servicing its obligations, while paring costs, and looking to relaunch itself as a smaller version of what went before. The latter see Ireland as being in Examinership, where the main emphasis shifts to credit recovery with run down of assets, and ultimately a selective, agreed default.

  83. Mickey Hickey Says:

    Rogoff on A Centreless Europe.

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-centerless-euro-cannot-hold

  84. David O'Donnell Says:

    Mickey - just posted it on Philip’s Corset Thread

    ECB - Lender of Last Resort to Sovereigns … must be daydreaming of Amen Corner!

  85. The Dork of Cork Says:

    @Mickey
    Too much attention has been focused on Germany…… me thinks France will be the first to break as Germany has mercantile desires that will be crushed by a break up.
    But France sometimes has more complex motives.
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Peugeot_Citroën_Automobile_Czech

  86. The Dork of Cork Says:

    Sorry I was comparing feb & march figures & pasted the wrong figures ..silly me.

    There were 10,581 new private cars licensed in March 2012, compared with 12,390 in March 2011, a decrease of 14.6%.
    The number of new goods vehicles licensed in March 2012 was 1,155 compared with 1,179 in the corresponding month last year - a decrease of 2.0%.
    The licensing figures also show that:
    In March 2012, the total number of all vehicles licensed was 17,171 compared with 19,307 in the corresponding month last year - a decrease of 11.1%. See Table 1 below.
    The total number of all new vehicles licensed during March 2012 was 12,568 compared with 14,483 during the same month in 2011 - a decrease of 13.2%.
    In March, of the 10,581 new private cars licensed, 2,568 (24.3%) were petrol and 7,705 (72.8%) were diesel. See Table 2A below.

  87. Mickey Hickey Says:

    @ Paul W

    You are right when you say we have taken the 60% depreciation hit. Looking at it from Kerry I see a country that has been very badly managed since 1922. We started off reasonably well with Germany and Iraq as natural allies, one built the Ardnacrusha Hydro Generating station and the other supplied us with oil. We then made some stupid retaliatory moves against tariffs imposed by the USA and others. General Franco of Spain was forced to make the country self sufficient due to hostility from foreign Gov’ts and trade embargoes. De Valera shut the gates voluntarily and continued to keep them closed for over thirty years. So we stagnated under the “ourselves alone” we will cut off our nose to spite our face regime. We have a lot in common with Spain when it comes to how we have conducted ourselves. Then we saw the light, entered the EU and later the EZ. We were in heaven, a level playing field, something we could have previously only imagined in our wildest dreams. The largest and most prosperous trading and monetary union on earth and we were a full card carrying member.

    We then proceeded of our own volition to run the Irish economy off the Cliffs of Moher, the highest ones we could find. Then we go into our reflexive victim mode. The role that the British used to fill is now filled in our own minds by the Germans and other EZ states that governed themselves responsibly. We have Universities in Ireland they have produced hundreds of economists. Yet, neither our Gov’t, Central Bank, Deposit taking banks, Investment banks seem to have had any competent economists on staff. The common wisdom is we were ruined by cheap money because Germany had to loan its trade surpluses to the periphery. Which means Kildare Street and environs was and is populated by toddlers.

    The nub of the matter is we have tried the “ourselves alone” and the “All for one and one for all” tacks and royally screwed up both. No serious attempt was made to stem the slide into insolvency since it became abundantly obvious in 2008 that we were in dire straits.

    I firmly believe we are incapable of governing ourselves and that order has to be imposed from outside i. e. the EU, EC, ECB…

    We are a country choc-a-bloc with sacred cows from the minimum wage to the remuneration of hospital consultants. In the Dev era to get import permits for material essential to manufacturing it was necessary to pay TDs’ and Gardai ” a little bit for your trouble” as it was referred to. Little has changed in Ireland since 1922.

    The only hope is that the hard lessons we are now learning will lead to some serious thought being given to why we continue election after election to vote in a Head Waiter and Waiters to dole out the goodies from Kildare Street.

  88. Paul W Says:

    John McH has just issued a new article on the Indo. No doubt will be posted here for discussion. A more balanced article, at last.

    One point though relevant to this thread:

    “With this adjustment path, the primary balance (ie, the balance excluding interest costs) would likely show a surplus of around 4pc of GDP based on the Government’s growth forecasts. This would put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path, helping to underpin renewed creditworthiness, intergenerational fairness and growth.”

    You need to believe three interconnected things for this to work: (1) the Govt forecasting is accurate /realistic, which in turn depends on (2) growth, which in turn depends on (3) the international /global economic outlook.

    Clearly, the Receivership, going concern, “open for business” strategy of Official Ireland is “optimistic” re (2) and (3) and hence (1).

    However, this FC report is also the second time in the last few weeks (first being from CBI) that there are significant downside risks. If (3) and hence (2) take a turn for the worse (e.g. Spain is already threatening stability /outlook), then “self defeating” will increasingly materialise……and Naysayers will claim victory. Vice versa is it goes the other way. It is clear that by issuing red flag warnings, both the CBI and FC are moving a little to “the ditch”, to hedge their positions against the downside.

  89. seafóid Says:

    @ Zhou

    I would add
    (6) climate instability and potential breakdown
    to the list

  90. The Dork of Cork Says:

    @Mickey
    The 1970s will be regarded as the best economic decade Ireland has ever lived through on a comparative basis at least. (not the 1990s)
    We were still part of the Sterling zone yet got all those fiscal transfer thingies that the Brits would never dream of transferring to us.

    From 1979 we were simply in the wrong monetory zone - deflationary integration efforts in the 80s were catostrophic for this country and have done long term damage ….. from 87 they hyped up the place with credit to conceal what lies underneath.

  91. seafóid Says:

    @ Michael Hennigan

    Your post
    April 5th, 2012 at 7:03 am

    came across as Statler and Waldorf with camans behind the goal at the Canal end .

  92. The Dork of Cork Says:

    The money supply as published on the CSO (feb2012) is showing big declines in M1,2,&3 these past few months
    Is this LTRO in operation ?
    It looks catostrophic.
    We need CBs to print base money to promote good & service sub. - not this deflationary madness.

  93. Paul W Says:

    @ Dork What are the % declines? That’savery interesting one you have raised.

  94. Shay Begorrah Says:

    @Mickey Hickey

    The role that the British used to fill is now filled in our own minds by the Germans and other EZ states that governed themselves responsibly.

    That must be it Mickey, no European component of global financial crisis, no badly conceived EMU, no trade balance problems in Europe, no out of control financial sector. No crisis in capitalism actually. It was just that the Irish (and it must be said many many of the Eurozone countries not sharing a border with Germany.) are a profoundly flawed people.

    What parochial nonsense. We are a small country on the wrong side of huge international crisis with its roots in financial capitalism and you blame what - Irish nationalism?

    A little more nationalism and we would not be in this mess.

    I firmly believe we are incapable of governing ourselves and that order has to be imposed from outside i. e. the EU, EC, ECB…

    Perhaps you are just having a bad day but right now it sounds like you have profoundly racist, anti-democratic and authoritarian right tendencies. If so then sadly you are representative of a Europe that is more right wing and hostile to the idea of the common good since the 1930s.

  95. Ceterisparibus Says:

    @Bond Eoin Bond
    Thanks.
    It would make you wonder about relying on anything in the Irish newspapers.
    DMcW surpassed himself with that major blunder. I thought ( for an instant) that our problems were solved with the official sector being prepared to write off debt. Then I woke up.

    I see the IT reporting car sales down 8.6% with the Examiner and the Indo reporting 14.6% decrease. As did the Dork. They must have a newly appointed spin sub editor in the Times.

    @ Paul W
    Zerohedge makes for sobering reading.

  96. Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Says:

    @ seafóid

    You’ve used this item of abuse previously and retaining the sporting context, when hurling insults, have the decency to use your own name.

    Your reaction is interesting because it’s not untypical.

    The impact of a default would likely be greatest on those who have been the main victims of this recession.

    On people’s life/work experiences and the impact on their views, there is a reason why for example private sector pensions or the absence of them hasn’t been a priority for policy-makers. The fear that exists in a business that is close to failure has to be experienced to really understand it.

    It’s not an attack on anyone’s integrity to raise the issue of range of experience in respect of an issue of huge consequence.

    Why is it seen as important now that the Central Bank has an executive with a range of outside experiences compared with people who had worked in the same old hierarchical organisation for decades and then they were expected to make consequential decisions or not, using their own judgement constrained by limited experience?

    @ Ceterisparibus

    I see the IT reporting car sales down 8.6% with the Examiner and the Indo reporting 14.6% decrease. As did the Dork. They must have a newly appointed spin sub editor in the Times.

    The 8.6% is the quarterly decline.

    @ Shay Begorrah

    There can always be a 101 or more reasons or excuses for a problem.

    Unless we accept the major responsibility for the crash and the factors in the culture that brought the economy to the brink of ruin twice in a generation, then we will never address the problems.

    It’s clear that the interest in reform at home will never match the search for scapegoats abroad.

  97. Paul W Says:

    @ CP Yeah. Might not be too over the top, although timing and consequences are always uncertain. Still, what I like about ZH is that it is very current, real market based, with debate from financial market participants who are “in the game”. Also, the charts and data are simply fab.

    Additionally, the liquidity fest has to stop sometime (in Europe too). The whole run up of financial asset values seems very artificial. That said, there has been a significant improvement on the ground in the US in the last number of months. The question is whether this recovery is a 1930s-style “false dawn”?

    So FC’s recommendation to run alternative scenarios is a good one….but why it has taken so long for Official Ireland to get to that point beats me!

  98. grumpy Says:

    Fantastic article on the FT site this afternoon - the essence of which is that some periphery sovereigns have been in effect issuing guarantees (can you believe it :-) ) to investment banks that have written credit default swaps on the sovereigns’ bonds.

    What this does is partially rig the CDS market for sovs so that as perceived default risk rises, at some point, for some contracts, the contract gets dumped on the sovereign, often via local banks (can you believe it :-) ). The pressure for wider prices then is reduced, and the local taxpayers end up with the potential bill (can you believe it :-) ).

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/05/950911/the-mystery-of-morgan-stanley%e2%80%99s-footnote-unravels-%e2%80%93-part-2/

  99. The Dork of Cork Says:

    @paul W
    Just looking a nominal numbers.
    M1 (cash & checking accounts) is down big which is serious in my view.
    Y2011 Month4 : 99,086 (peak)
    Y2012 Month2 : 91,147

  100. Paul W Says:

    @ Dork Any CBI commentary on M1? Difficult to get a sense of it based off just nominal numbers. Velocity of money must be something they monitor very closely.

  101. Paul W Says:

    Don’t know whether you have seen this:

    Neil Record’s paper attached to this link (click on Neil Record) is fascinating….certainly relevant to What if Ireland Defaults?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-eurozone-x-factor

  102. Ceteisparibus Says:

    @Paul w
    Definite improvement on the ground in US. Reports today of a potential glut of apartments in Washington State. Another bubble. Apparently they are shoving them up in a few large metro areas like there is no tomorrow.
    Yes, there must be consequences of all that money sloshing around. Interesting that the Draghi carry trade seems to be grinding to a halt.
    With Ollie saying Portugal needs more help and Rajoy issuing dire warnings I suppose even the most nationalistic banks must rein in their purchases. It will be interesting to see if the ECB has to resume sovereign secondary market activities.

    @MH
    Still spin..only headlining the lower number.

  103. Bond. Eoin Bond... Says:

    @ Paul W/CP

    I’d be careful with ZH.

    1. He’s unashamedly bear-biased. I wonder how long after the recovery, if ever, he will turn positive.

    2. He’s a conspiracy nut and sometimes gets things spectacularly wrong. You’ll note he doesn’t suggest that periphery bonds are mainly UK-law anymore, having previously written a 10,000 word essay based on that…

  104. The Dork of Cork Says:

    @Ceteis
    Is not LTRO wildly deflationary ? its a mechanism to save the com. banks as tax will have to be raised to service the interest , depleting checking accounts ?
    Its much more effiecent for central banks to create base money that will be spent directly
    This will weaken currencies and reduce money exports over time - making domestic economies more sustainable & redundant.
    The object of the exercise should be good & service substitution in a positive monetory envoirment.
    Deflation is extremely inefficient as it creates a system where too much real economic activity goes to too few people causing a misallocation of resourses such as too little Garda on the beat (Bicycles ?) so that we can pay for cars causing a rise in burglary.
    Think of it of resourse management.

    This rail line once went to Spain.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AZ-0TG-2vs
    - after the bridge collapsed in the early 70s the French never rebuilt it as too much real resourses was going to buy cheap Spanish goods.
    However the French kept the line to Oloron open despite it being a not so busy route…… why was that ?
    Because from a holistic national economy perspective it was not losing money despite what it said on the SNCF accounting books.

    @Paul W
    I don’t care to be honest - the M3 has been declining since mid 2007 but the M1 !!!!!!

  105. seafoid Says:

    @mh
    I thought you had a good point to make about bringing in other views but it came across as curmudgeonly. I have some experience of communicating with children. “that is useless” tends not to work. “well done. To build on that I think you might consider adding x next time” is better. Tbh the negativity towards people who put in an effort reminds me of the nihilism of mayo gaa fans when the county loses a match

  106. PR Guy Says:

    @Various

    As a source, I’d treat ZH with a pinch of salt (professional opinion). Yes, there’s some good stuff there now and then - the odd pearl for sure - and from some guys at the ‘coal face’ and it can be very entertaining - but there’s an awful lot of unsubstantiated crap and analysis/statements of the bleedin’ obvious on there too……

    …….and I just can’t cope with all the “bitchez!” and “sell your shares for gold, guns and tinned goods.”

    Avoir une bonne fêtes de Pâques…. and c’mon Leinster. A grateful client even managed to cough up a ticket - a good one too.

  107. The Dork of Cork Says:

    @PR
    I agree , there was a caveman money token , anti printing thing on yesterday which forgot to mention debt.
    It was embarrassingly childish , even for Dorks.

  108. Mickey Hickey Says:

    @Shay Begorrah

    As I see it there was an Anglo Saxon (US & UK) Financial crisis which affected countries that were already unstable. Greece cooked the books, the Spanish private sector overbuilt, Italy’s Gov’t overspent and under taxed, Portugal’s poor productivity problems worsened. Ireland had been pricing itself out of the export business for a decade largely due to the movement of workers out of mfg. into construction. Our Gov’t poured subsidy and tax advantages onto the property/building boom. The distortions in Ireland of the size, price, volume and location of development activity were brought to my attention by Frankfurt development bank economists about five years before the bust. Essentially they were asking me specific questions about developments that in their eyes had no visible signs of support. We agreed that things in Ireland were headed for a bad end. These were people whose main expertise was investment in Latin American infrastructure. Where were the Irish Gov’t, CBI and domestic banks and their experts as the wreck approached.

    I live in a world where four languages are used in my own house, I have worked for three national gov’ts over a dozen MNCs and vote left consistently. I am noted for my patience in bringing people around to my way of thinking in meetings where tempers flared. Authoritarian I am not. I firmly believe that every nation has the right to govern themselves as they want. Nationalism is the last refuge of scoundrels.

    As for racism I am Irish with a perfect right to comment on things Irish. In Kerry we talk in terms of breed as in them Gillymuddys are a bad breed.

  109. Paul W Says:

    Sorry, but Neil Record is not ZH. Neil’s piece is fascinating to say the least (Dork read his paper….he’s a supporter of your approach…..call off the Euro).

    Of course ZH is controversial. It gives you the alternative view, often in the extreme. It challenges the status quo, constantly and consistently. It is a useful tool.

    @ Dork “@Paul W I don’t care to be honest - the M3 has been declining since mid 2007 but the M1 !!!!!!” I’m interestes in the topic, but don’t blow me off without content, please. Make your point more clear. If there is a material M change /story re money velocity /supply in Ireland, let’s hear it. You raised the subject; substantiate it. I care (if it is materially relevant).

    @ BEB Of course, let’s be cautious re every info source. However, ZH is better than most in my view (once you focus on the quality parts and discount the BS contributions…plenty of those elsewhere…even here). Why so defensive? Nothing in my links today are particularly “controversial” (definitely uncomfortable, to the negative).

  110. Mark Says:

    re- Longtail: ‘..never prejudge a boom, either by cover or worse by author…Boom=Book, bloody smartphones’

    - a fortuitous error, though the wisdom is a tad retrospective…

  111. EWI Says:

    @ The Alchemist

    From whining about (public sector) PAYE workers having an “entitlement culture” to special pleading for a massive middle-class bailout on their property gambling in the space of two successive short paragraphs.

    Well done, sir. Bravo.

    @ RF/David O’Donnell

    +1 from me as well. I asked Declan Ganley on Twitter as month or so ago if he didn’t feel it was at least the appearance of a conflict of interest to be making sensationalist statements about a Euro collapse while at the same time running a presumably profitable Swiss bolt-hole (St Columbanus) for capital, only to find that there was suddenly an engaged tone at the other end of the line.

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