Given that we are in Fiscal Compact mode here on the site, I thought I’d make a point about industrial production in Ireland. Today’s monthly release of the Census of Industrial Production (.pdf) shows up a few interesting features of the Irish economy. The CSO report that the seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production for Manufacturing Industries for the first quarter of 2012 was 5.2% lower than the preceding quarter, but the seasonally adjusted industrial turnover index for Manufacturing Industries increased by 3.2% in March 2012 when compared with February 2012 and actually increased on an annual basis.
I thought I might dig into this a little. The chart below shows monthly data from 2007 on industrial production for the ‘modern’ sectors of chemicals, pharmaceuticals, recording media, and medical devices, and individually the key exporting pharmaceutical and chemical sectors. Seasonally adjusted and indexed to 2005, then, we have the following:
Which shows that, for these key sectors on a seasonally adjusted basis there has been a marked drop since the end of last year. Before we all go shorting Ireland just yet though, to put these figures in a bit more context, here’s the same series averaged annually, with the last period averaged quarterly for 2012.
There’s still a decline, but it’s not quite the patent cliff Frank Barry has been highlighting recently. Definitely a series to watch however. Here’s the turnover statistics for the two chemical sectors, they don’t produce one for the modern sector: