This post was written by Seamus Coffey
After a temporary misstep the latest Quarterly National Accounts have now been released. For Q1 2012 they show that real GDP dropped 1.1% in the quarter so this poll was fully wrong while this poll was somewhat right.
To add to the confusion the release shows an economy that has contracted but exited recession at the same time. The Q4 2011 change has been revised from a quarterly contraction of 0.2% to an expansion of 0.7% meaning that there was not two consecutive quarters of contraction following the decline in Q3 2011.
In fact, there has not been two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction since the end of 2009. This is very much an L-shaped recession.
The National Income and Expenditure Annual Results for 2011 have also been released. Real GDP growth for 2011 was 1.4% but there was a GNP decline of 2.4%. Nominal GDP was just under €159 billion.
As expected the Balance of Payments shows a small current account surplus for 2011. If the BoP numbers aren’t big enough you can always have a glance at the Quarterly International Investment Position and External Debt figures. The net column shows that there are lots of big numbers on the asset and liability sides.