Irish Society of New Economists Conference

This whole effort is both hilarious and frightening. The hilarity is occasioned by this wonderful ability – universally observable, but quintessentially Irish in its fullest execution – to sustain an optical illusion – even to the extent of creating a parallel universe. An averagely intelligent external observer, having limited knowledge of or interest in matters Irish, would get no idea that the country is going through the aftermath of one of the most profound economic crises ever experienced by an advanced economy or that the Troika have their hands on the principal levers of economic policy or that the Government is cunningly resisting their desire to pull the remaining levers of economic policy in its control to promote effective recovery and reform.

But once the hilarity subsides, it is the fear for the future that takes hold. If these are our ‘new’ economists, presumably those at the early stages of thier careers as academic/professional economists, and there is so little engagement with the reality that most citizens are encountering, then it is truly frightening.

@Paul Hunt.

Did you audition for Bane in the recent Batman movie?

@paul hunt
+1

Some of these examples, presumably advanced to refute it, actually support the case I am making.

For example, instead of ‘Risk-return incentives in liberalised electricity markets’, why not ‘Remedying the extreme dysfunction of energy policy and regulation in Ireland’? Or, instead of ‘Choice, price and service characteristics in the Irish broadband market’, why not ‘How to recover from the aftermath of the botched privatisation of telecoms infrastructure and services’? Or, instead of ‘The socio-economic aspects of marine renewable energy development in Ireland’, why not ‘How to minimise the detrimental impact of dysfunctional EU climate change policy in Ireland’?

I usually find that the nature and volume of pseudonymous abuse and vilification is a good indication of the extent to which I’m on the right track. And it’s usually reinforced by disingenuous efforts to undermine the case I’m making.

I have only once been at this conference, last year, where I chaired a session. I was impressed by the quality of the presentations which would put many more senior folks to shame. These conferences auger well for the future of the profession.The organizers are to be congratulated.

You tend to lose the audience when you open with: ‘This whole effort is both hilarious and frightening.’

As for the conference, I welcome the initiative. During my study of economics I found little to stimulate my interest in the subject, outside of classes. Hopefully it will be a success.

Heaven forbid that PhD students spend their lives following their interests rather than pursuing Paul Hunt’s research agenda. How precocious.

@Enda H,

I think ‘precious’ was the adjective you were looking for. I’m a bit too long in the tooth to be ‘precocious’. And I have no desire to control the research agenda of all economics PhD students in Ireland. It’s just that Ireland is confronting many challenges and problems on the economic and political economy front. I would just like to see one to two get to grips with a few of them.

And, Stephen Kinsella, I’m not in to ‘sexing up’ titles – just, in a very brief way, highlighting some problems/challenges that might be worth investigating.

And I think we all know why none of these ‘new’ economists would broach these issues. If they were to they would make themselves instantly as unemployable in Ireland as I am.

Good effort Paul, but no, I wrote what I meant.

It may come as a jolt, but I was not talking about you. Good man.

@ Paul Hunt

I’m happy to see that you find our effort at organising ISNE 2012 hilarious. I can assure you that the reality was somewhat different.

Don’t fret about the future. Even if you are right, and us ‘new economists’ are completely disconnected from economic reality, we surely can’t leave the country in as bad a state as your generation.

Robbie

@ All

Oops! I had the Institute for New Economic Thinking in mind rather than economists that happen to be new.

Nevertheless!

What is one to make of this?

“The annual conference is intended for Masters, PhD students, and young professionals in the early stages of research.”

Why not “applying their recently acquired professional knowledge to the present economic challenges”.

The mountain of academic research has hitherto, as far as I can judge, produced a not very useful mouse.

On a more productive note, the two ISNEs I attended were amongst the more useful conferences I attended while doing my Ph.D and I very much regret that I will have to miss this one. We are lucky to have on this small island some really smart people looking at really interesting issues – some of importance to Ireland, others not so much, but all adding to the global stock of knowledge.

Jeeze, some of you blokes are in a tetchy mood with PH. Getting a dim ctitique is not the nicest thing to endure. But ye have the option: improve or keep quite. How will ye respond when a ‘real economist’ uses a flenching knive on yer thin skins?

Now, if I get this correct, the most serious political challenge facing this state is gently trundling our way. I see nowt on the agenda about it. There was one about local transport. But that seem to be that.

Geeze, I wish some of ye pseudo-economists would do me a favour and state what yer economic Model-in-Use is. Could ye do this?

Ah, come on lads.

This is a post-grad conference for PhD students and graduates who are newly emerging into the profession to talk about their studies and present some research findings.

Surely the economics profession – and the Irish economy as a whole – would benefit from having economists who can debate their methodologies, present their findings and accept peer-review.

Some of the chippy comments on this thread suggests that one or two of you are a little nervous of the next generation – better trained, better coached in the communication of their findings and better able to cope with debate.

No wonder the profession has such a poor reputation for arrogance!

@Robbie Butler,

You are being a tad disingenuous. I don’t find your effort at organising this conference hilarious; I have no doubt it will be properly and prefessionally conducted. My criticism – and it is intended to be constructive – is of the content. Keynes did not inspire a generation of economists, policy makers and administrators by accepting the status quo in the 1930s; TK Whitaker did not accept the status quo when he and his colleagues provided the intellectual and admininistrative sinews for the major departure in Irish economic policy in the late 1950s; and the neocons most certainly did not accept the status quo when they sought to demolish the post-war economic policy consensus when it foundered in the 1970s.

If you and these other ‘new’ economists are perfectly happy with the current status quo being sustained by Official Ireland of ‘steady-as-she-goes’, of sustaining this optical illusion of ‘business-as-usual’, of hoping that something will turn up – while the domestic economy founders and large-scale unemployment becomes entrenched, then I’ll withdraw my criticism and reflect on the implications.

As DOCM observes, it appears that the current generation of ‘older’ economists – with some honourable exceptions – are broadly content with the current status quo. The reason I fear for the future is that I see no evidence of the ‘new’ generation being prepared to challenge this status quo. And again, you’re being a tad disingenuous. Not all of us older graduates who went on to practise the discipline were part of the Official Ireland that created this mess. (I took Official Ireland’s ‘shilling’ for only a couple of years in the late ’80s, but, since then, have been well outside the fold.)

A few things thinking back over the eleven years of this (i) Would be good to talk about developing some master classes on top of PhD training in Ireland and UK. Certainly demand and may relate back to previous post about online (ii) Interdisciplinary work also becoming more standard though again worth talking through (iii) There is an old debate in Ireland about whether PhD students should work on Irish topics. My own view is it shouldn’t really matter. If you come from a country, it can sometimes be an advantage as you know the place better. Certainly, it shouldn’t be the case that people dont work on Irish topics due to lack of data (iv) Will be interested to see Beamer/Powerpoint and R/STATA ratios this year! (v) The moving around (Dublin,Limerick,Galway,Dublin,Dublin.Cork) has been good. (vi) For people interested in how PhD research should adapt to massive global changes since 2008 the INET group has been the most prominent on this. They are not related to ISNE despite similarities in name. They have been a major force in asking questions about economics itself. People here including Philip Lane, Kevin O’Rourke and Stephan Kinsella have been involved http://ineteconomics.org/ (vii) Looking back over the presenters since the start, mix of people who are now academics, private sector financial, consultancy, civil service, wider public sector. Basically what you would expect from people who have taken postgraduate economics degrees. (viii) As said above, the international component and size of the conference has been great in last few years.

Look forward to this a lot. Well done again

“The ‘young’ economists do have an economic model in their heads – they just are not aware of it”

I’m pretty sure anyone doing a PhD would be aware of basic economic models. Or perhaps not! I look forward to seeing if you’ve caught them out. Re prior work experience, big problem here is, even if I accept your premise, you don’t have a clue about any of these peoples backgrounds.

rf: Thank you for exposing your idea about what you understood by my reference to an economic Model-in-Use. Unfortunately its not what I have in mind. It is not any of those faux models that economists use. Those are based on the logical arguments of mathematics (and some woeful assumptions) and have little contact with reality. Its something quite different. My personal economic Model-in-Use is known as Sustainability. It does have significant problems (which I am aware of) and which no amount of Miltonian wishful thinking will erase. It is known as a ‘quick and dirty’ model.

It is not my intention to ‘catch out’ folk. Where amongst my various commentaries did you pick that up? It matters naught whether you accept anything I say. Folk make up their own mind’s about what they believe is useful to them. Sure, I am clueless. But a few pertinent questions might elucidate some answers. Ah! Maybe you believe that may have a ‘paternalistic’ streak. Your welcome.

I give you credit for attempting to answer my (intellectual) challenge. But I would be grateful if you would please identify yourself in full. Some of the commentators on this blog know me personally – I was an undergrad in Liam Delaney’s Behavioural Economics class in UCD.

My challenge still stands unanswered.

@Brian Woods Snr

Could you expand a little more on what your getting at? I’m not familiar with the term ‘Model-In-Use’. Perhaps a link to something I could read more on this?

For those coming to Cork on the 23rd and 24th, please note that heavy road works continue at the Sarsfield Road Roundabout.

If you are driving to Cork, it might be an idea to travel through the city to UCC or, if travelling on the Link, exit before the Sarsfield Road Roundabout e.g. Kinsale Road Roundabout exit.

@Rob G
Surely not.

A PhD adds to the body of academic knowledge and to the pool of academic researchers, both of which are highly relevant.

Hi David. The Model-in-Use term is derived from behavioural psychology. It refers to a belief-set (or Reference Framing) which individuals use to make sense of a somewhat complex world.

We humans have many and varied Models-in-Use – for the variety of situations we encounter. It is argued that our Model-in-Use is used to motivate us and drive our behaviours. Prospect Theory is the model used by Behavioural Economists. Theories of Action that Inhibit Learning is the model described by Chris Argyris. The dominant economic model is known as Permagrowth (a geometric increase in aggregate economic activity over time). I have not encounterd the term in economic texts. It may appear as an upward-sloping exponential growth-line in undergrad texts in the context of Equilibrium. Or it may appear in numerical form: as 2% annual compounding growth.

If Permagrowth is your economic Model-in-Use (it is used unconciously) then your mathematical-based economic models will be virtual images of your Model-in-Use. When an economic downturn emerges (the geometric trend-line falters) a lot of economic folk become mightly perplexed and advocate wrongheaded solutions – lather on the stimulants. Which actually work until they do not. Like today. We’re kinda tuckered out on stimulants. Successful failures are doomed to reprise.

As a biochemist, I regard the implications of a 2% geometric growth (in a closed container with finite resources) as catastrophic. As an economist I think its great gas. As in Helium!

Our Models-in-Use are constructed in an idiosyncratic, episodic manner, over long time-periods and can accumulate some seriously misleading stuff which is next to impossible to ‘cleanse’.

Undergrads build these models (of their subject matter) as they progress thru college and the models become highly persistent – so eliminating stuff that may be ‘wrong’ is fearsome difficult. Wm Perry jr has documented the intellectual maturing process of (male) undergrads; (Forms of Intellectual and Ethical Development in the College Years, 1999).

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (1971 and 1999: The Entropy Law and the Economic Process) may prove useful. He hammers modern economists for their ridiculous beliefs. It is a difficult read. Paul Samuelson wrote an undergraduate text in 1948. Delightful to read. Virtually devoid of mathy stuff and he treats economics as Political Economy. Its real economics.

Permagrowth is based on fallacious assumptions and mathematical trueisms. It needs to be dumped. But where?

@ David F. Thanks for that.

A nasty thought intruded into my complacency. What if many economists DO NOT have a specific economic Model-in-Use which drives their thinking and behaviours (about economics). This might explain the puzzlement many seem to experience when I raise the issue. So what model do they have? They must use something. Hmmmmm.