2012 – Page 129 – The Irish Economy

Just an update on the planned conference on the economy, part of a sequence of Dublin Economic Workshop meetings in collaboration with the Universities (in this case UCD Geary Institute and UL).

Firstly – venue. We had planned a city hotel but (a) demand, and (b) lack of appropriate supply, has caused us problems. So we are pleased to have booked the Conference Centre at Croke Park for the event. Details on the venue are here – parking (lots), transport (lots) and wifi too for your iPads.

Secondly – RSVPs. Thanks for those that replied to emma.barron@ucd.ie to give your details. If you have, you are DEFINITELY on the list (just the volume of response means that Emma has not managed to reply to all, plus she was perhaps going to have to cull the list due to capacity issues (she has a black belt – I kid you not!)). Due to her efforts at getting the venue we are fine and in fact would like to encourage more of you to come along – again RSVP to Emma. One favour – if you do RSVP, come along. While this is free to all to attend, it is not free for the organizers so we may be able to adjust the rooms booked etc. Also, while we will DEFINITELY NOT be providing lunch but there will be some catering on the day (coffee etc) so it would be great to have pretty clear figures for all of that stuff.

Thirdly – webcasting etc. We will record and upload after the event – youtube and through the Geary Institute iTunes ‘channel’. We hope to webcast live but not certain at this point. We will set a hashtag on twitter and will use the Institute twitter account on the day (@ucdgearyinst) to encourage interaction from those who can’t make it, from those outside the country etc.

Finally – latest draft of the programme is below. We will update titles etc as we go along.

Thanks again for the patience and the support – RSVP please to emma.barron@ucd.ie, and see you there!

DEW Conference on Irish Economic Policy

Croke Park Conference Centre, Dublin, January 27^th 2012

0830-0900	Registration and Opening
0900-1030	Economic Policy and Evaluation	Property Market
	Chair: Donal DeButleir (IFPRC) Robert Watt (Department PER) Tom Healy (CERU) Frances Ruane (ESRI)	Chair: Stephen Kinsella (UL) Ronan Lyons (Oxford) – “Residential Site Value Tax in Ireland: Land Values, Implementation & Revenues.” Michelle Norris (UCD) Rob Kitchin (NUIM) – “Prospects for the Irish Property Market.”
1030-1100	Coffee
1100-1230	Unemployment	Demography
	Chair: Minister Joan Burton T.D. David Bell (Stirling) Aedin Doris (Maynooth) Philip O’Connell (ESRI) – “The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland.”	Chair: Kevin Denny (UCD) Orla Doyle (UCD) – “Early Educational Investment as an Economic Recovery Strategy.” Alan Barrett/Irene Mosca (ESRI) – “The Costs of Emigration to the Individual: Evidence from Ireland’s Older Adults.” Brendan Walsh (UCD) –“Well Being and Economic Conditions in Ireland.”
1230-1330	Lunch
1330-1500	Banking and Euro	Economic Recovery – Can Competition, Regulation and Privatisation Help?
	Chair: Constantin Gurdgiev (TCD) Brian Lucey (TCD) – “Banking in Ireland – Back to the Future.” Frank Barry (TCD) – “Rectifying Design Flaws in the Euro Project” Karl Whelan (UCD) – “Scenarios for the Euro Crisis.”	Chair: Cathal Guiomard (CAR) Richard Tol (Sussex) – “Energy Regulation in Ireland – Some Current Weaknesses and Lessons for Recovery.” John Fingleton (UK Office of Fair Trading) – “Economic Growth – How Can Competition Policy Help?” Doug Andrew (former London Airport regulator) – “Governance, Ownership and Reform.”
1500-1530	Coffee
1530-1700	Fiscal Policy
	Chair: Dan O’Brien (Irish Times) Philip Lane (TCD) – “The Fiscal Responsibility Bill.” John McHale (NUIG) – “Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions.” Seamus Coffey (UCC) – “Current and Capital Expenditure: Getting the Balance Right.” Colm McCarthy (UCD) – “Public Capital Investment and Fiscal Stabilization.”
1700-1800	Panel Session on Irish Economy

Another IMF WP – available here.

Summary: This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.