Maastricht Returns

Eurostat have published the first notification of government deficit and debt data in the EU for 2012.  The euroarea had an aggregate budget deficit of 3.7% of GDP and an aggregate gross debt of 90.6% of GDP and “Eurostat has no reservations on the data reported by Member States.”

The detailed figures on Ireland are here (all countries  here).  The Department of Finance have released an information note on the Irish figures.

The 2012 deficit is estimated to have been 7.6% of GDP with the gross debt at year end equivalent to 117.6% of GDP.  For 2013, the projections are a deficit of 7.4% of GDP and a year-end debt of 123% of GDP.

The 2012 deficit benefitted from some once-off revenue factors while, in comparison, the 2013 deficit is negatively effected by the end of the ELG, reduced income from assets sold (BOI CoCo notes) and the deficit impact of the ongoing IBRC liquidation.

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13 thoughts on “Maastricht Returns”

  1. Looks like quite positive figures all in all, even if they were already known for the most part. The deficit position looking into 2014 appears to be well ahead of target as the impact of the PN deal is most favourable in 2014 and 2015 and the impact of the IBRC liquidation should roll off.

    It does leave scope for an easier budget in October than had been planned although that would mean the government potentially going against the wishes/advice of the troika and the fiscal advisory council (again).

  2. Thanks Carson, 123% debt to GDP and a 7.4% deficit after 6 years of corrections deserves a description as positive. Amazing, seriously are you innumerate?

  3. Hi Rich (or is that Rip Van Winkle?). I see you’ve just woken up from your cave after a 5 year hibernation. Welcome back to earth. Let us know if you want anything explained – a tweet is not just a sound a bird makes any more!

    For anyone else who’s been around recently, expectations will have been lowered somewhat following the massive recession we’ve been experiencing since you went away. So the fact that the governement beat its deficit target in 2012 by a full percentage point whereas almost all other EU countries (notably Spain, France and the UK) are missing there is a modest positive, yes.

  4. Deficit to fall from 7.6% to 7.4%, in absolute terms from €12,461m to €12,500m, so the deficit will grow in cash terms, lets roll out the barrel.
    A serious problem isnt getting better, at least not quickly enough, the branding of Ireland as the best of the PIIGS is not something we can afford to allow internationally for much longer. Ireland had a premium label during the tiger years which lent the adjectives of efficient and modern to our brand. The PIIGS label is replacing that with incompetent and desperate.

  5. And the debt just keeps rising and rising…I suppose it depends what you view as progress.

  6. Barrosso has his view of progress….

    ““The progress we have made over the last few years, since the crisis, in these institutional political issues, is not always acknowledged,” he said.

    “We have taken major steps towards more and better integration, towards a real economic and monetary union. Despite the crisis or rather: because of the crisis, against the odds and contrary to the thinking in some circles, we have countered the risks of fragmentation precisely by uniting against common challenges, applying what amounts to a federal approach.”
    http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_22/04/2013_495187

  7. @ Fiat lux

    growth is probably like the number 16 bus. You wait patiently for ages and then they announce it has been cancelled.

  8. MH,
    What old you estimate the underlying change in GDP to in 2012? What would the underlying deficit look like in 2011& 2012? Was any progress made at all?

  9. @ Tull Mcadoo

    A 2012 adjusted level of 8.2% would compare with 9.1% in 2011.

    We are still in the same deficit sub-group as Greece and Spain while the DoF will revise growth forecasts this month down for 2014 and up for 2015 – – overall still likely too optimistic despite the risk of some finger-wagging from the Fiscal Council.

    Too realistic forecasts would upend the back-to-market cart.

    So with the anti-austerity headwinds becoming stronger at a time of a dimming of growth prospects, there will be a lot of work on the Excel spreadsheets. 2015 will be the year of a strong recovery — Inshallah!

  10. Great stuff from the leadership

    LBS says that Central Bankers have no idea what is happening in the advanced economies

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7f8807e6-a8fa-11e2-a096-00144feabdc0.html

    He reminds me of Steve Staunton. He was so sure of himself 3 years ago.

    http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2010/html/sp100910_1.en.html

    To conclude, it is clear that current and increasing levels of public debt in advanced economies raise problems which are not only of a macroeconomic nature, but affect many other dimensions of the global economy. On the other hand, our ability to understand the complexity of the issue is still limited. This situation is worrying, to the extent that our societies may take decisions on the basis of imperfect models and wrong assumptions.

    and now German’s private sector is contracting

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/23/eurozone-crisis-manufacturing-services-italy-government

    Germany’s private sector is shrinking for the first time since last November, with its services and manufacturing sectors both reporting much weaker than expected PMI data.

    Both readings came in below the 50-point mark — showing a contraction in Europe’s largest economy.

    German service sector PMI: 49.2, down from March’s 50.9.

    German manufacturing PMI: 47.9, down from March’s 49.

    German composite PMI: 48.8, down from 50.6 in March

  11. Seafoid,

    that is very unfortunate for Merkel. Noone would want to face into an election with an economy sliding inte recession, I would expect the xenophobic anti PIIGs rhetoric to rise to a cycle peak over the summer.

  12. @ Tull

    Me too. But the PIIGs are probably used to it, really. And the world will still be rotating after the German election. Some sort of policy response will be required. Maybe something coherent, even.

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