ESRI Budget Perspectives Conference Post author By Philip Lane Post date June 25, 2013 The ESRI budget perspectives conference is on this morning – details here. My talk will be based on this op-ed in today’s Irish Times. Categories In Uncategorized 7 Comments on ESRI Budget Perspectives Conference ← “If they saw the enormity of it upfront . . . they might decide they have a choice” → DEW Economic Policy Conference 2013: Call for Papers 7 replies on “ESRI Budget Perspectives Conference” “Second, even if risk premia remain contained, recent developments in global bond markets indicate that long-term interest rates may be set to rise for all borrowers, including even low-risk governments” I wonder. It seems that the situation is very finely balanced. American house price rises (and shale) have been driving whatever growth is there . If rates go up that will stop the price rises. Growth will be hit. China is decelerating. Massive outflows from emerging markets. The dollar should in theory be strengthening if the US is really emerging from the crisis. It appears to be weakening. QE may well go on for a good while longer. This is one MF of a crisis. CH 10 year is still below 1%. @ Seafóid: “American house price rises (and shale) have been driving whatever growth is there . If rates go up that will stop the price rises. Growth will be hit.” The US has had no real ‘growth’ (whatever that means) since 2002. Its almost entirely virtual growth (credit-money fueled). US asset values are deflating in proportion to the amount of the credit emitted. The debt overburden is being piled up – ‘out-of-sight’. That IS real. What actually concerns me is the coming (inevitable) energy shocks. The mid-east is a good canary – and its looking a little pale at the moment. Demographics and water insecurity. Ireland will suffer very badly when the energy shocks start to come ashore. I can well understand the obsessive interest with money and taxes etc. You can emit all the credit-money you need. Not so with energy resources. Sleep with one eye open! Sir Mervyn the cat http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2013/jun/25/mervyn-king-treasury-committee-live-blog “It’s a contingent path. And it’s contingent on conditions returning themselves to normal in order to allow interest to return to normal. We are nowhere near that yet. And I think people have rather jumped the gun thinking this means an imminent return to normal levels of interest rates. It doesn’t.” @ BW I am more worried about the climate TBH. They’ll dig up energy until it runs out. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/feb/24/west-coast-delusions/?pagination=false “Boyle is strong on the subject of human delusion, and though there’s an underlying tone of disappointment with the human race in his work, it’s not as savage as Swift’s or Voltaire’s, as if time and developments in psychology, or perhaps just a mellowing temperament, have brought understanding, though not forgiveness, for our present society”. @Seafóid: “They’ll dig up energy until it runs out.” Near enough. And trash the environment on the way, until we have insufficient disposable energy available to dig up the stuff we need. Its a quotient relationship – X/Y. If X (output) goes down and Y (input) goes up! Which they are doing … … … Math is a funny thing! The PR spin is “Look at all those lovely oil sands, etc., etc.” Its never mind the quality, just look at the quantity. Idiocy. Science (and nature) are very un-funny! Any policy (economic, financial, resource) – ‘… needs to be within the competence, however limited, of those available to administer it.’ [J K Galbraith (1987): ‘Economics in Perspective’, 272]. Professor Sinn’s take on the case relating to the ESM before the German constitutional court (to be included among the “downside risks”?). http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-german-constitutional-court-on-omts-by-hans-werner-sinn And an opposing German academic view. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-turns-against-the-euro-by-marcel-fratzscher (The latest polls suggest that thew AfD party will not meet the 5% threshold to gain seats in the Bundestag). @Philip Lane On fiscal adjustment the key question is HOW? HOW thus far is far too skewed towards the lower_echelons. BTW have you been somewhat assimilated?_by that reference to the illusory ‘savings on the promissory notes’ (sic). Theres is no such ‘fact’ as ‘saving’ on an odious debt of 30 billion euros. @all If anyone wastes time reading Sinn pls supply a one line summary! Comments are closed.