The CSO have published the end-2013 update of these series:
There isn’t much to surprise in the figures. Gross debt at the end of 2013 was €203 billion (124 per cent of GDP). Once offsetting assets of €42 billion in the same categories are accounted for net debt was €161 billion. The assets were:
- Cash: €23.8 billion
- Bonds: €10.8 billion
- Loans: €7.1 billion
Other assets not used in the net debt calculation are include shares and other equity of €29.8 billion and other financial assets (mainly accounts receivable) of €9.2 billion.
The market value of Ireland’s €203 billion of nominal debt instruments was €219 billion at the end of the year. The estimated pension liabilities of the government are put at €98 billion, while contingent liabilities are “just” €73 billion.
The 2013 general government deficit is provisionally estimated to have been €11.8 billion (7.2 per cent of GDP) from €13.4 billion in 2012.
The ‘operating balance’ of the government sector went from a deficit of €12.5 billion in 2012 to one of €11.8 billion in 2013, an improvement of just €0.7 billion. The improvement in the overall deficit was greater because of changes in the capital budget.
Gross fixed capital formation was further reduced from €3.1 billion in 2012 to €2.7 billion in 2013. With consumption of fixed capital at €2.3 billion the increase in the public capital stock was just €0.4 billion. The main change in the capital account was a €0.7 billion gain in the ‘net acquisition of unproduced assets’ which likely relates to things such as mobile phone and lottery licenses.
Revenue from taxes and social contributions rose from €49.1 billion to €51.6 billion, while investment income was up around €0.5 billion to €2.7 billion. Much of these increases were offset by an increase in interest expenditure of €1.5 billion to €7.4 billion. Social transfers paid decreased from €29.0 billion to €28.6 billion, of which €24.0 billion were in cash.
13 replies on “Government Finance Statistics”
Not much room for tax cuts!
@Seamus
For those of us not digging into this at the mo, can you or anyone else, expand on “while contingent liabilities are “just” €73 billion”?
Very vulnerable to a jack up in interest rates.
Needs growth to come back to Erin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyRY1oN76e4
5 years on now from the long ago and the deficit is still gaping.
Meanwhile what about this ?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26f7a326-c0d6-11e3-bd6b-00144feabdc0.html
@ grumpy,
It relates to the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee. The scheme was closed for new liabilities at the end of March last year but continues to cover existing liabilities until they are matured/redeemed. It is likely that around two-thirds of the €73 billion total refers to deposits (i.e. deposits over €100,000 not covered by the Deposit Guarantee Scheme). Over time the contingent liability should reduce. It is “just” €73 billion because it was greater then €300 billion back in 2008/09.
@ Seamus
What discount rate is used for the pension liabilities ?
@ seafóid
The €98 billion figures comes from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. The only details I have seen on it are in this:
http://www.per.gov.ie/monitoring-and-managing-expenditure-now-and-into-the-future-measuring-the-accrued-public-service-pension-liability/
@Seamus,
Based on what you say, Ireland’s net position on nominal debt instruments is about 98% of GDP – or 26 percentage points below the gross position. Have you any feel for what the normal gap between gross and net positions might be for high debt developed countries?
OK – useful …
but I prefer ‘GNP’ as I view this metric as more relevant in terms of ‘repayment capability’ … and in terms of indigenous social & economic capability.
I note that Johnny Fitz has recently converted to GNP …..
… that said, the ESRI, IMHO, has lost a lot of credibility notwithstanding the number of ‘heads of standing’ within its community ….
… nor have I seen, 5 years later, any reasonably plausible explanation as to why the leading research institute in the state was caught with its pants/panties down while the Citizenry was sold down the toilet to the benefit of the systems of Money & Corporate Power. Methinks there must be a wee problem with how it ‘thinks’ but thus far little has emerged to throw any light on its blind spots.
@Seafoid, Seamus
The €98bn pension liabilities is arrived at using 5% as the discount rate.
Irish sovs, as you know, about 3%.
@ Grumpy
GRMA
5% on o/s debt obviously would not be ideal for the deficit but it’s high enough to discount the pension liabilities in order to get a reasonable number. And sure who is going to be looking too deeply into it anyway ?
@ BeeCeeTee,
Yes, Ireland would be unusually high in having debt instrument assets equivalent to 24% of GDP. In the EZ18, Ireland is second only to Finland which had a gap of 46% (2012 data).
The unweighted average for the EZ is 16%; take out Finland the the average is 14%. So we are around 10% of GDP above the average, though not necessarily for high-debt countries.
Greece 17.8%
Spain 14.9%
Italy 12.1%
Portugal 20.3%
Ireland also has the highest amount of these assets held as “current and deposits”. Our 15% of GDP cash reserve is more double the unweighted EZ average of 7.5% of GDP, though again high-debt countries seem to be above this.
Greece 10.6%
Spain 8.2%
Italy 4.8%
Portugal 11.6%
The Krugmeister on what we get from a bloated financial sector
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/costly-financial-sector-gives-us-little-or-nothing-1.1761816
A 2012 video featuring Matt Taibbi and Yves Smith
Looks like Johnny Fitz, in an otherwise plausible piece, forgets to ‘look around’ at the ESRI; spose it must be difficult to become self-reflexive on oneselves.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/esri-runs-rule-over-eu-governance-1.1762032
Hibernian Governance pre-crash = Hibernian Governance post-crash
statsig*****