- Balance of International Payments Q3 2014
- Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2014
- Trade Statistics September 2014
- Consumer Price Index November 2014
- Tourism and Travel Quarter 3 2014
- Production in Building and Construction Index Quarter 3 2014
For the first three quarters of 2014 GDP is running 4.9 per cent ahead of the equivalent period in 2013. GNP is up 4.7 per cent on the same basis. Quarter on quarter growth has slowed through the year though much of this is likely the result of distorting effects from the MNC sector.
The “contract manufacturing” effect that influenced the quarterly figures at the start of the year seems to have continued into Q3. This seems to be supported by the Industrial Production data which includes this “contract manufacturing” effect and is highly volatile at the moment. After rising by over 20 per cent in the first half of the year the volume of industrial production in manufacturing industries fell by 5 per cent in Q3 so remains at the elevated levels. The figures show that the effect is arising in the pharmaceutical sector.
The Q3 balance of goods trade in the national accounts was around €3 billion higher than the balance shown by the Trade Statistics figures. The difference was around €2.5 billion in Q2.
In the first nine months of 2013 the national accounting adjustments for goods trade resulted in a difference of just –€76 million between the trades balances recorded in the national accounts and trade statistics. For the first nine months of 2014 the balance of goods in the national accounts is €7.9 billion greater than that shown in the trade statistics.
The current account of the balance of payments showed a massive surplus equivalent to 8.4 per cent of GDP in Q3. This has been driven by an improvement in the merchandise balance (with no corresponding outflow on the services side) which is likely the result of the “contract manufacturing” effect discussed above.
It is possible (i.e. this is a guess) that the “contract manufacturing” effect is arising in an Irish-domiciled company. If it was the Irish-resident branch of an MNC the profits would be recorded as an outflow in the BoP (and also for GNP) in the same quarter they are earned. If it is an Irish-domiciled (or headquartered) company the profits would not be recorded as an outflow until a cash dividend is paid (assuming those dividends are paid to non-resident shareholders). It is not appropriate to say that GNP excludes multinational sector profits.
[As an aside one might consider what impact, if any, these activities are having on Corporation Tax revenues.]
In November, consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent for the second month in a row (there was also a fall of 0.2 per cent in September). Annual inflation is just 0.1 per cent. Excluding energy products (-2 per cent) and mortgage interest (-12 per cent) inflation in the remaining 85 per cent of the index is around +1 per cent.
All charts from the CSO.