Brexit Open thread Post author By Stephen Kinsella Post date June 23, 2016 I broke the liveblog. Apologies for that, we’ll just get back to the regular thread structure. Categories In Uncategorized 69 Comments on Brexit Open thread By Stephen Kinsella Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Limerick. View Archive → ← Central Bank of Ireland Macro Financial Review 2016:1 → Latest edition of the Economic and Social Review 69 replies on “Brexit Open thread” http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/14412/140februaryruedaetal.pdf Xenophobia a barrier to economic growth….hmmm High turnout in Sunderland (heard on Drivetime this pm) an area previously trending for leave. Is this ominous?? Or is it connections of Nissan workers voting to access EU markets. could be nissan workers voting to leave. Never underestimate the perversity of people. Brings to mind Lincoln’s quip ““Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.” Further thoughts on Brexit here http://www.anglejournal.com 2 Mencken quotes For every complex problem there is a solution that is clear, simple and wrong Democracy is the art of giving the people what they want, good and hard So with Brexit…we face a possibility of q significant FDI competitor and a fiscally bufud NI seeking a place in the EU with little prospect of the Farageists continuing to put 10b PA into it Fiscal Space just got tighter folks…buckle up I am personally quite happy that UK voters have given one in the nose to their elected leaders, and to the Euro suits. The voting had all to do with ordinary people facing a bleak future in the face of unbridled capitalism, with, unfortunately, immigration becoming a focal point for protest to manifest itself. But immigratiion was not the prime motivator, by any means. Labour voters deserted both the EU, and their own party, for reasons of pure economics. A continuation of the status quo presaged a very dismal future for them. Labour now has a great opportunity to lead British politics for many years. The Conservatives are a split and beaten docket. This should be great news for the Europe as it must, at least rationally, force a complete change in EU policies away from one which cossets bankers and financial companies, to one which puts employment and people top of the agenda. The only downside is the sight of Farage trying to appear as leader of the Brexit vote. He is not and never will be. As for gamblers moaning this morning about the falls in sterling, the gyrations in the market etc, 98% of leave voters probably don’t own a share, or a foreign currency. The gambling losses of billionaires should not be the concern of ordinary people, and they should not have to pay for them; and the media should stop its sycophantic adoration of the markets, and the gamblers who inhabit them. Very accurate analysis…….but the elites are very unhappy and will act solely in their own interests….. Brexit will be very positive for Ireland. For the next few years, we are going to pick up all new FDI that in the past went to England. Also, much of the Financial Services sector will move here from London. Watch Dublin property prices! In the medium term, it will lead to the breakup of the UK and the reunification of Ireland. Perhaps it is time to close down or fundamentally alter the European Parliament. It is not a democratically responsive institution. Perhaps one message from this vote is that the British Parliament is a more responsive and representative body than the European Parliament. The EU is besmirched by backroom deals between politicians, lobbyists and bureaucrats acting with little democratic accountability. (The Dail is better than the European Parliament, too. Not suggesting we vote to leave!) It is time to think long and hard about political improvements to the structure of the EU institutions. I don’t think that people in Ireland, have ever really figured out what democracy is. It was never intended to be something fluffy, that obeyed. Democracy is something that was forged in the fire of human and social development. Sometimes democracy, is able to bite back. Sometimes democracy doesn’t read the script, that has been provided for it, by the few and powerful. Sometimes, democracy is bad ass. Listening to Irish Television on Thursday evening, the conversation very quickly turned one way. It was about how ‘Europe’ ought to strike back as it, in some way that was in proportion, to the missile that Britain seems to have flung in a direction of Europe. There were contributions offered into a debate on Irish national Television – about how the aftermath of Brexit would need to be managed. Questions of how Europe, now ought to ‘punish’ Britain, in some way for being a bad boy. It had an air of 1940’s thinking almost to it. Granted it became dressed up with some token phrases about markets, integration, financial concerns and what have you. But one wouldn’t have been surprised if one heard a suggestion of an F-16 fight plane fly-over, or drone-strikes – thrown into the mix of comments – between those interest rates, currency valuations and stock prices. It makes one realize again, how Washington-bubble-centric, the conversation about any aspect of policy, in any part of the world, has become. The worrying part, is that it’s very easy for smaller nations such as Ireland, simply to fall in behind that Washington think-tank, kind of view of the world as it is perceived by those policy think-tanks today. What amazes me about the policy speak, from an economic point of view, about things like the European Union and Britain’s part, or lack of part in the same – is how closely the vocabulary about militant foreign policy – and global economic foreign policy, have seemed to have merged together. When I listened to the Irish Television discussion about Brexit, if I closed my eyes and forgot that it was about Britain, it almost sounded like conversation about Syria or the Gaze strip. It made me wonder finally, if there really is something now that has totally polluted the media, and conversation, called a Washington consensus? And are we all now a part of it, including economics? Has it actually come to that? Has the landscape of intellectual conversation now in 2016, become a mono-culture? If that is so, does it mean that European Union members states returning to having national sovereignty and separation again, might not be a bad thing? Yes, most people would agree that the House of Lords is the epitome of democracy. Some rambling thoughts from my side…. Very big dice have been rolled, and the ramifications of this referendum will be felt for years to come. Potentially looking at the break up of the U.K. strong possibility of Scotland and perhaps N.Ireland leaving? Could we see Gibraltar leaving too? Will this event trigger a reform of the E.U.? Watching Alastair Campbell’s face on CNN this morning one could only have pity for the man, a real GUBU moment if there ever was to be a second one! Alastair commented that the people who recommended a Brexit are Putin, ISIS and Trump! Did Frau Merkel & Co see this coming? It would be interesting to read her thoughts. Did Merkel overplay her hand with allowing refugees to enter Europe? Long term….. I see a slow and steady demise of the status of London. What now for Ireland’s voice at the European table, Ireland will be the only English speaking nation present! Will Ireland’s voice be heard? Who will Ireland partner up with now when negotiating new treaties / laws etc? Globally, the only certainty appears to be uncertainty. It is just so hard to fathom that of all the millions of man hours, perhaps hundreds of millions of man hours which were spent by diplomats, civil servants and politicians since the mid 60’s in talks, treaties, referendums is now going to be untied in the next two years. A truly extraordinary moment in history which will be long remembered. The polls generally suggested it was going to be a very close call. I followed the FT’s poll of polls which had shown Leave pull ahead over a week out but then a swing back to Remain, who were marginally ahead on the day. Given that information it was extraordinary that the markets, both financial and betting, gave such a low probability to a leave victory, with behavioural economic concepts such as Narrative Fallacy and Confirmation Bias perhaps offering some clues. Another victory for Schiller over Fama. The economic arguments didn’t seem to have that much impact- telling people that GDP may be 2% or up to 8% lower in ten or fifteen years from what it otherwise might be is not that meaningful I suspect. Also the spurious accuracy of the model-based analysis probably prompted many to switch off. More generally, medium term growth depends on labour force changes, productivity growth and technological change, so approaching the issue from trade patterns may not have been a wise choice. As for the campaign in general, it was dispiriting and at time appalling, The Remain side argued from a negative – Brexit would be worse- as opposed to extolling the virtues of membership. Interesting also that the markets see this as a European crisis, with much larger equity falls on the continent and Ireland than in London, for now at least, and only a modest fall in sterling/euro. You should note both Cameron and BoJo have said there is no need to invoke Article 50 – once activated UK is out after 2 years whether it likes the deal offered or not. Behind the scenes there has been plenty of advice along these lines offered, particularly from City sources. The EU elites would naturally like to encourage others not to follow suit. UKIP will probably want 50 invoked immediately so they don’t loose momentum. The Irish toyed with the idea of playing “hardball” with the EU while publicly promising both CP and bank liabilities would be unaffected. Some of us pointed out the advice the other side would get on this, which didn’t go down well. A lot of this sort of stuff is obvious. I await with interest input from our resident EU expert docm. I have not commented on Brexit because my conclusion early on was anything that might be said from an Irish, or, indeed, any external, perspective would only make it more, and not less, likely. It seems to me, now that the deed is done, that the situation is very similar to that which prevailed in Ireland post EU referendum failures, but much, much worse. Previously great, and now medium, powers do not do public u-turns. But one suitably camouflaged might be imagined. The only conceivable model that can provide this, it seems to me, is the Norwegian one (especially in the way that the common border with Sweden is managed!). The acquis of the European Economic Area, which is now made up, effectively, of Norway, is what is left over of the UK promoted European Free Trade Area, and is meshed with that of the EU. The transition of the UK to it would be legally seamless. The main problem from an Irish perspective is that it does not include agriculture and fisheries but something in this area might be worked out. It will, of course, be argued that it includes the continuation of free movement and budget contributions and this is not acceptable to the Brexiters. But so what! What is ahead is a negotiation, not acceptance of ultimatums from a departing club member that in the most public way imaginable has just made an error of historic proportions damaging the cohesion of their own country, not to mind that of the EU. I was listening to a French commentator on the radio just now (they are collectively finding it hard to hide their glee) and he remarked that where previously the UK had “one foot in and the other out, it would now have one foot out and the other in”. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/close-sweden-norway-ties-despite-eu-border-dividing-them-1.2683072 Right on cue, Juncker came out to argue the UK should get on with exiting straight away! This is all about trying to shape the politics in the UK to get the government to act quickly (hastily) and initiate Article 50. This provides Juncker with the best opportunity to make sure Britain gets an exit deal other states will not want to copy. Juncker does not want the UK hanging around and refusing to leave just yet ….or just yet…until the deal is right. That would be (i) very disruptive for the EU and (ii) potentially provide a route map for other states. He could hardly say anything else. The foreign ministers of the founding six countries of the EU have just said the same thing. The central question is whether the pressure to move is higher on Team Brexit than Team27. Hard to say! The calculation of the embryonic Team Brexit is fairly obvious and, indeed, public i.e. stall until a new Conservative party leader is in place and Cameron is facilitating this by, effectively, depriving the UK of a government capable of acting internationally until it happens. This is in line with the tunnel vision impacting the English body politic in general. But it borders on the reckless. If a Team Brexit with a proper mandate is to be formed, it must include a voice for the pro-remain majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland. How this is to be done when there is no agreement among Brexiters on what the UK is seeking by way of a successor agreement to membership of the EU escapes me. A sideways move to the EEA is the only obvious basis for any agreement that would satisfy them (once the penny sinks home with Sturgeon that the EU cannot deal bilaterally with Scotland). The hope of Team Brexit is, of course, that everything will settle down, relatively speaking, over the holiday months and that this will strengthen its hand. This may be a vain hope because there is no hiding the fact that sectors of the UK electorate, whether knowingly or not, paid no attention to the adverse PERSONAL consequences for millions of people, mainly UK citizens, of their decision cf. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ask-a-money-expert/brexit-what-would-it-mean-for-your-eu-holiday-home/ The real world has intervened with the resignation of the Commissioner nominated by the UK Lord Hill (in charge of financial services!). This was inevitable. The UK is already being treated de facto as a third country (the procedural basis for negotiating agreements with which is set out in Article 218.3 TFEU), as required under Article 50. “He could hardly say anything else. The foreign ministers of the founding six countries of the EU have just said the same thing.” What legal status do the above foreign ministers have in the EU? Are we back once again to Frankfurt Groups, and Eurogroups. The results of many referendums were overturned, in Ireland, in Denmark (to my knowledge) and of course in Greece. So why the rush to boot the British out the door? Do the 6 EU members wish to make matters more difficult than they are, ignoring the fact that there is still, legally, a 28th member, and indeed without consulting 21 of the members? Would it not make more sense for the EC commission, today, to announce that British could eat whatever size bananas they wished, if that is what it took to keep Britain in the EU. But, instead we have Juncker demanding immediate and unconditional withdrawal. If one believes that Britain has (perhaps temporarily) lost its head, is it necessary that an entire continent loses its head in response. @ Joseph Ryan This is senior hurling, not a game of pat-a-cake. Cameron is out in the cold and is still trying to act as if he was within the house. No matter how divided Team27 are on the other tactics to be followed, they are in agreement that this, his last, bluff must be called. His actions have put all their interests at risk, none more so than those of Ireland. But, true to form, he will almost certainly put party interests first. Either way, he loses. As does the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/view-from-germany-hans-kundnani-britain-eu-vote-leave The map of who voted showed London and Scotland voting Remain . Both have an interest in detaching themselved from the corpse of the UK. Trump could bill a wall along the route of the M25. God only knows what will happen with NI Neoliberalism is dying. There is a limit to what ordinary people can take. Bad day for the Tories. Love will tear us apart again. Bad day for financial modelling. The BoE would typically slash rates but ZIRP precludes this. In fairness to the Tories this is better than declaring war on France or Germany which is the historic default reaction when the economic system becomes incoherent. The Swiss voted by a majority to limit immigration 2 years ago and it raised a sh÷tstorm. Only 30% woukd support the deal now. Brexit is predominantly emotional or despairing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tacked up EU and a revote by 2018. There is just too much serious money at stake to let the popular vote decide. “Neoliberalism is dying. There is a limit to what ordinary people can take.” That’s about it. The Remain vote didn’t even get as far as Luton, this time. Too bad that the EU was the first one in the firing line, but they lost their Fossi Bear image in Greece. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tacked up EU and a revote by 2018.” I think that’s a good bet and makes common sense, if the EU wake up. [It would also be possible under a Labour government]. But Juncker was out of the traps with, out, out, out, today. He must have a score or two to settle and a long memory. Remember Cameron and his mandarins opposed Juncker’s appointment with immense vigour…. All the indications are that the “Leave” vote is strongly correlated with age, and negatively correlated with education. Given the strong age-education correlation, I would like to see the two effects estimated properly. There appears to be a lot of anger among younger UK voters who feel betrayed by oldies. Speaking as a oldie I am horrified by the blinkered outlook of my English contemporaries. I really wish people would stop banging on about Neo-Liberalism. Its largely bad old xenophobia, and Liberalism of any stripe has nothing to do with it http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/sutherland-says-ireland-should-aligning-itself-to-eu-inner-core-1.2698754 “Describing the outcome of the British referendum as “a disaster”, Mr Sutherland said Ireland’s strategic priority should now be to “stand four square with other EU member states” even if that “may not always lead to happy conclusions for Britain”. “Britain cannot be outside the EU and have the same relationship in trade and services as it had when it was within it. This has consequences, and they are important, because if there were no consequences you might as well dissolve the EU tomorrow.” ” I would question very much the wisdom of such a move. If Ireland is seen to line up with the EU and start putting the boot into Britain, how does he think British people and British purchasing managers will react? They could well retaliate, with some justification, at such an approach from Ireland, damaging our most labour intensive industries. The last time Ireland got involved in a European spat, which Mr Sutherland appears to be proposing, was when we backed the wrong king back in 1688. That did not work out too well, did it? The same applies to David McWilliams suggestion of taking immediate advantage of perceived British weakness to start ‘poaching’ international business. Again, how does he think British people will react to that kind of neighbourliness? The UK helped Ireland back in 2009 when nobody else would Brexit vote seems to be highly correlated with income levels. London basically won the Thatcherism years at the expense of everyone else . Neoliberalism doesn’t actually generate growth. It reorders cash flows via the debt machine. 37 years of iterations have pauperised large swathes of the north of England. This is fascinating from an Irish perspective given the historic mean. There was a story recently from Northamptonshire about a son who couldn’t afford to buy a coffin to bury his 57 year old mother. Working class people in their 50s are dying in their thousands in the US too. Have to laugh about productivity increases. Workers don’t get them any more. Demand is finished. The people who voted leave feel it. This is Thatcher’s day . Her two passions -Europe and monetarism- conspire to poleaxe the UK. There is no such thing as society. There is just grubby chaos. As an American reader I would like to know: do you think Brexit will mean a return to the troubles in Northern Ireland? After UK entered the EU the most the IRA could have achieved was being ruled by that member of the EU known as Ireland instead of that member of the EU known as the UK, which is not the kind of think people are willing to kill and die for. Does Brexit change that? Its extremely unlikely that there will be a return to the troubles – a negligible chance, I’d say. Of course, there are a tiny minority of dissidents who are completely deranged and who never accepted the peace process and these carry out isolated acts of violence from time to time. However, these groups are fanatically opposed to the EU (they regard it as an ‘imperialist plot’ etc etc) and so there is no reason why they should be more prone to violence outside the EU than inside it. Nevertheless if there are customs posts or the like the dissidents will blow them up. Nobody will provide any assistance in identifying who did this and the PSNI would quickly lose any credibility if it guarded political impositions of this sort. Whether the dissidents approve of the EU is neither here nor there. I tend to agree with you that if customs posts are erected along the artificial border, they may well be destroyed by the locals, not necessarily by the method you describe, but probably set on fire by demonstrators. Having lived through the period 1968-1996, locals in border areas wonldn’t consider destroying customs posts as a resumption of The Troubles. However, I’ll be very surprised if customs posts are erected, mainly because they were totally ineffective when there before. Assuming there is no resumption of large-scale violence and the only reason in the eyes of the UK authorities to ‘man the border’ is related to trade and immigration, its more likely they’ll move the de facto border to the Irish Sea. Back in the 50s and 60s, before The Troubles, customs posts were a complete joke. There are a dozen roads across the border in North-West Tyrone alone, only one or two of which ever had customs posts. The rest were ‘unapproved’ by the UK authorities but nobody who lived in the area gave a fig about this ‘unapproval’. Same all along the border. My own early criminal career led me to knowing all these ‘unapproved’ roads like the back of my hand. Our local juvenile GAA team played in Donegal regularly and we’d always come back laden with eggs, butter and cigarettes. Hard to believe now, but back then these were cheaper in the Republic. Technically, we could have been arrested, but our fears of spending time in clink were greatly diminished by the fact that (a) the ‘unappproved roads’ were always completely unmanned (b) some of our booty was destined for the local parish priest, the local doctor, the local RUC sergeant and other dignitaries. Eventually, by the early 60s I abandoned my criminal career in favour of other interests. It is true that when The Troubles started the border became much more significant and harder to smuggle things across, but this was because of the presence of 50,000 security personnel looking for guns and gelignite rather than butter and cheese. I think its extremely unlikely that will return. Not unlike Gregory, and well before yesterday, I thought the No.1 policy issue for Ireland in the years ahead is what kind of EU we (alongside others) want to press for. We cannot just bob along in the slipstream as before. Good point re ‘what kind of Eu we want to press for’…..but has Ireland ever really ‘pressed for any type of EU….we seem to have a group of Ministers and mandarins who simply do what they are told by the’ European Project’ crew whose main goal seems to be total integration across all 28, now 27 States……..and have stated that they will ‘carry on regardless’…. The UK may have to leave the single market if it wants to deal coherently with immigration. That would mean going back to border controls with the RoI. Not to mention serious economic damage, We urgently need an economic system that generates economic growth in ways other than via unlimited immigration. I voted Remain. Brexit is definitely bad for the economy of the UK long-term. Not apocalyptically bad as some Remainers claimed, but bad enough to shave maybe 0.5% off the annual growth rate for the next decade or so. The people who voted for Brexit appear to be mostly deadbeats from down-at-heel regions of England (mainly in the north and midlands), the sort of people who have supplied recruits to the British army and rioters at football matches for generations (as we shall no doubt see in France in the next fortnight), and who have feelings of hostility to almost all other European nations continually whipped up by the UK’s jingoist media (‘Wogs begin at Calais’, as they say). In contrast, enterprising hard-working get-ahead London voted to remain. If I was British (which, obviously, coming from Tyrone, I’m not), I’d be quite angry and despondent at this result. However, looking at it from an Irish perspective, the result is far from bad. While there might be a limited adverse short-term effect on Ireland from Brexit, as David McWilliams has said, this is a great opportunity for Ireland, provided it takes advantage of it by keeping costs and business taxes low. As the UK is 14 times Ireland’s population, Ireland only needs to capture a few percent of FDI to the UK to make a huge difference. A really intensive marketing campaign by the IDA is now called for. Being able to market Ireland to American companies as the only English-speaking country in a market of 450 million is HUGE. Politically, it means the end of the U. Kingdom within a reasonably short timespan. Halleluia. When it comes to important decisions, the Celtic countries in the U. Kingdom have been shown to be mere appendages of England, completely shorn of all national rights in relation to decisions that have a critical bearing on their economic future. Scotland and Ireland are both strongly pro-Europe, seeing membership of the European Union as the key to a prosperous economic future. But, while Ireland is able to decide for itself, Scotland is being forced out of the EU by the votes of England.That Ireland is not also being forced out of the EU by the votes of England is due to Patrick Pearse and James Connolly. Cautiously I would tend to agree that there is a opportunity for Ireland to profit here from the UK’s departure. One example, Ford Motor Co UK, employing 14,000 workers, producing 1.6 million autos of which 80% are for export. What about Airbus? Will parts continue to be made in UK? Or should production be shifted to Romania or Poland? I think time should be given to the UK political establishment to arrange a new leader before getting into the exit discussions. Forcing the issue now may lead to the wrong approach being taken. Apparently there is a growing number of Brexiters who now have regrets about what they have just done, one voter commented that they wished they had bought their dollars before the referendum. Certainly lots of time for “sitting on your blisters”. They wanted to beat up Cameron . They didn’t want to kill the UK economy. A bit like something Lenny Bruce said “A lot of people say to me, “Why did you kill Christ?” I dunno, it was one of those parties, got out of hand, you know.” Having Gove and Bojo in charge would be like having Ming as Taoiseach . Straight out of Hollywood comedy. Starring Chevy Chase From Spain.. All those economic migrants from EngWales, coming here and other places in the EU, using our services….most don’t assimilate, speaking English and reading their own newspapers, eating their own disgusting food (I mean, pies?) And drunk (watery ale!!!), Sensing kids to special English schools, who do they think the are? Most aren’t our religion and they look different. The Brexit vote in England and Wales (which swamped the remain majorities in NI and Scotland) is the result of the conjuncture of revolts against the “establishment” – however it might be perceived – by two tribes. The first is existing and former core Tory supporters; the second is their Labour counterparts. Unhappy families, as Tolstoy observed, are each unhappy in their own ways. It will take a long time to sort this out, but it is a long overdue application of the democratic process. Those exercising power and influence in Ireland – and the army of lawyers, consultants, accountants, advisers, pliant media types, tame academics, PR operatives and other functionaries who serve them while advancing their own interests – should not be too smug when observing the outcome in Britain. The popular opposition to water charges provided more than a hint of the deep and widespread popular disgust and anger at the self-serving antics of those exercising power and influence. In most instances it appears that those who exercise power and influence and who capture, and who facilitate the capture by others interest groups, of sustained economic rents become so greedy and stupid that they fail to grasp and respond to the public disgust and anger they arouse – until it is too late. Those who do so in Britain got hit by a double whammy – disaffected core Tory supporters and disaffected core Labour supporters. Those who do so in Ireland got a warning during the autumn of 2014. What about a second referendum? There are precedents from Ireland which are not all that edifying, but consider: 1. The website for Parliamentary petitions has now got about 750,000 signatures in 24 hours, well in excess of the number needed to trigger a parliamentary debate: See: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215 2. The large number of “what have we done” stories from those who didn’t seem to realise what they were doing, or who fell for all the mendacious UKIP propaganda. I know ignorance is no excuse, but very occasionally large numbers of people do crazy things which they come to regret. 3. Maybe a second referendum should offer a real choice between (a) remaining and (b) accepting the outlines of a deal offered in the next few months by the EU-27. In this case (b) might look very different from the rose-tinted views of Farage and Johnson. P.S. While typing the above, the petition’s signatories have increased by over 15,000. That’s a very good idea. The electorate only voted in favour of the principle of Brexit. When the full details of Brexit are known, parliament should give them the right to vote again. A couple may decide to divorce in principle but, when the full details of the divorce (who gets what etc) are known, they might decide to stay together after all. The chances of this are greater if there is a pro-EU non-Tory government. For this to happen, Labour needs to get rid of Corbyn, elect a sensible leader (maybe Sadiq Khan) and make an electoral pact with the LibDems, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.And allow 16- and 17- year olds to vote in the referendum. The EU made a mistake by not offering the UK concessions that recognised the grievances of the leave side. Schulz is a grade A ars#hole. the EU requires deep reform and perhaps this could be combined with a second referendum. We are only a few years away from the Goetterdaemmerung of neoliberalism and it would be a shame to exclude the UK from the EU when the dead economic system is is the real problem. Remind one of the ‘Gigli in the Cork Opera House story’ – he had just done his 5th reprise at the end of his concert, was thanking the audience for their enthusiasm while explaining that he had to stop sometime – a shout from the audience – ‘You’ll keep doing it until you get it right Boy!’ Interesting times. My guess is Opinion Polls will show regret at the decision inside of a year. Of course the Torrie media in the UK will spin any negative outcome as the big bad EU’s fault for punishing Britain etc Where will the politics go after that? Expect the Torries and Farrage to have different interpretations of the mandate they have. Ironically the same people that have been shafted by the Torrie elite have doubled down on their more lunatic fringe. It reminds me of the trick the republicans have been playing in the US for the last few decades. Blame the foreigners for votes, use power to further their own aims. I wouldn’t trust BOJO or Farrage to show up on time for a meeting never mind negotiate leaving the EU. Cameron is probably the most disgraced PM ever. Seem like a nice chap but taking a bet on a referendum, running an inept campaign and giving the little Englanders a chance to sell their snake oil is a very poor legacy. Incidentally, surely the youth vote should have be weighted higher than the nostalgic oldies one. That would bring the vote more toward 60% remain. Shows how much North of Ireland registers as an issue with the average UK citizen. I don’t think I heard it mentioned in the campaign. Hopefully they keep paying for it though. One can only hope Ireland gets out from under this unscathed. Ideally a nice best of both worlds situation. Some kind of fudge special arrangement with the U.K. for trade and travel while retaining our EU access. Making us really appealing from an FDI perspective a 3way point for US/UK/Europe. Unlikely. Probably unworkable. Perhaps the Irish government could start accepting sterling as well as Euros for the settlement of taxes too. For the peace process etc…. That would give us a nice hedge against the next Euro crisis. Very unlikely, very unworkable. Let’s hope some kind of European leadership materializes. Close to 10 years of drift. In it’s absence, I’m hoping for Draghai helicopter money focused at a massive European infrastructure spend. Never going to happen. How could Ireland cope with a significant inflow of firms and workers from the UK over the next few years, if it actually did materialize?. We have huge capacity issues in housing, commercial property, education, hospitals and in infrastructure around Dublin. Public capital spending by 2021 is projected at 2.7% of GDP, which is very low by international standards and extremely low given a decade of underinvestment. Good point there Dan, however if Ford, Nissan and Airbus were to relocate their manufacturing plants from the UK I would imagine there would be no shortage of takers / offers from other EU nations. Portugal would jump at the chance to acquire jobs for 14,000 workers. Just because the Irish establishment is unable or too slow to fix a problem does not mean other nations will be slow to seize the opportunity. There is a serious risk to the UK that it will become a economic carcass, with other EU nations getting to chose which bones to gnaw on. From a June 2016 IMF report…. “Domestic laws of member states like the UK are subject to the principles of the single market. The European single market is founded on the “four freedoms” of movement of goods, services, capital, and people. Single market rules are intended to make selling goods and services to the 500 million residents of the EU easier and less costly for the UK and other EU members— the UK and other EU members therefore have to follow harmonized standards. Consequently, domestic laws and regulations that would impede the free movement of those inputs and outputs are, in general, incompatible with the objective of a well – functioning single market. Hence, some domestic laws have to be aligned with the principles of the single market. This also provides protection: the UK can seek to have laws and rules in other countries that would discriminate against UK firms overturned—in particular, EU state aid rules provide a framework for preventing firms from using government support to gain advantage over competitors. Over time, a number of directives and regulations have been added to better harmonize social, employment, health and safety, and environmental policies across national borders. ” https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16169.pdf It is entirely possible that the solution to the Great Greek Crisis is here. Shut out the UK by impose tariffs / penalties on UK goods services. This will force employers / manufacturers / service providers to shift location to inside the EU where there is a more level playing field. Other EU nations must be licking their lips at the potential boost in job numbers coming their way! While the Republic might have a swings and roundabouts situation, the balance may not be good. Small Irish business might face extra hassle trading with the UK and places like Donegal might be badly affected. Meanwhile a set of rich bankers arriving in Dublin might pay a lot of PAYE but would drive up rents etc further. We’d then have imported some of the strains that led to Brexit. The 10 y Treasury yield fell 17bps yesterday to 157 bps. Another 18 months of system wide debt issuance plus one or two unpriced shocks and it will be at zero. Brexit was really a vote about deflation. And poor RBS. Go ndéana Dia trócaire air. We know what the effect is, but what was (were) the cause(s)? It might be more economically and politically enlightening if we could excavate the causal process(es) which have led to the ‘Leave’ vote being successful. It may be xenophobia, it may be political marginalization, it may be … : what? Nowt to do with the slow, inexorable trend in the FIRE economy? And the parallel demise of the Production/Consumption economy? The FIRE economy is a negative-sum one. Where there are a few winners, and many of losers. And the losers (whatever that means) eventually get sorta p*ssed off and take whatever opportunity is presented to them to protest. And who is disagreeably surprised then? Yeah, I thought so. And please remember this. Elites and powerful vested interests do not do ‘reform’, or whatever you wish to term it, They ‘double-down’ on their prior agenda because they know it was the right one in the first instance – its just that those ignorant, selfish and ungrateful peasants cannot really appreciate what is being done to better their lives and to protect them from harm. Indeed. Its known as Assadization. That is, its Austerity; (aka. economic, political and social deflation) which is just a more PC term for the same economically, politically and socially destructive behaviour. I heard Bruton, Cox and Sutherland bemoan the ‘Leave’ result and witter on about all sorts of European stuff as if we western islanders were like the folk in the Mittle. We most assuredly are not. You can round-up and corral horses and put saddles on their backs – but please do not attempt to attempt the same thing with zebras. Elites reform when there is no choice. They were afraid of Roosevelt and of Bevan. Peoole need to organise. The system is FUBR Bruton/Cox/Sutherland etc – add in an supine media…. Vinny, one of my ‘favourite’ undergrad zoology books was ‘Animals Without Backbones’ – the phylum Achordata. The author appears to have neglected to include the species Homo politicus and Homo scribius in the taxonomy. Never too late! From the FT…UK’s EU commissioner quits as departures begin. The carve up of jobs has already started, Lord Hill has resigned EU commissioner for Financial Services. Juncker has appointed Latvia’s EU commissioner ( Valdis Dombrovskis) to take over this dossier. Pressure is being brought to bear for the other 73 UK ME P’s to be relieved of their responsibilities. Conservative MEP Iain Duncan has stepped down from his role in the Emission Trading Scheme. Apparently there are over 1000 British nationals who are employed in the EU institutions as civil servants. Their future employment prospects are now uncertain. The UK was to take over the EU presidency in 2017, but the Czech’s have pointed out that this cannot happen. I do have a question about AIRBUS. How safe are the 100,000 UK jobs which are created from manufacturing all the civilian airplane wings? http://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/airbus-in-uk/ Should these jobs not be transferred inside the EU to reduce internal unemployment ? Post Brexit is going to be a rather lonely place for the UK. Quote from to-day’s Guardian (whatever you think about the Grauniad, at least they are not liars and frauds, to quote Bob Geldof): “ within hours of the result on Friday morning, the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, had distanced himself from the claim that £350m of EU contributions could instead be spent on the NHS, while the Tory MEP Daniel Hannan said free movement could result in similar levels of immigration after Brexit”. Meanwhile the petition to parliament for a rethink or re-run has almost 1.8 million signatures after one day: most other petitions manage less than 200,000 after a couple of months. So this was a campaign based on lies, and as such one can only hope for several million people signing up to question it. The Mayor of Calais has told les rosbifs that control of migrants on the French side is over and that border checks will happen in England. Quelle merde. Leave can’t fund the NHS or control immigration. It is a massive pi%%take. Petition for London to divorce itself from the UK and join the EU. From today’s Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/petition-second-eu-referendum-crashes-house-of-commons-website The surge came as nearly more than 100,000 people signed another petition calling on London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, to declare the capital independent from the UK and apply to join the European Union. The Change.org petition had gathered more than 130,000 signatures by Saturday afternoon. The page, set up by James O’Malley, stated: “London is an international city, and we want to remain at the heart of Europe. “Let’s face it – the rest of the country disagrees. So rather than passive-aggressively vote against each other at every election, let’s make the divorce official and move in with our friends on the continent. “This petition is calling on mayor Sadiq Khan to declare London independent, and apply to join the EU – including membership of the Schengen zone (Umm, we’ll talk about the euro …).” Not surprising. London is a huge chunk of UK gdp. Ireland without Borders: http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2016/06/25/news/arlene-foster-ignoring-the-truth-over-north-s-position-on-eu-578720/ Both Yorkshire and Cornwall want to leave but have EU structural funds. The delusion runs deep. Meanwhile the Scots are about as close to a UDI as you can get. There is talk of a Lexit as per above. Call Me Dave has done the most damage to the UK ever. Terminal damage. If it wasnt so dangerous for us, one would be tempted to go long popcorn and put the feet up. This makes Trump! seem like a master politician. Mr Dave Cameron has unfortunately confused short term tactical strategy with long term strategic strategy. To win the election Mr Cameron promised a referendum on Scottish independence and EU membership. This tactical move got the Conservatives reelected, the Scottish Independence Referendum was defeated. The strategy was working well until the EU referendum result came in. The wheels have now come off the wagon big style. Brexit belongs in the book “the march of folly” by Tuchman The NZZ had a feature on Cornwall. Very high support for leave because the area has been neglected for so long. Loads of EU funding and as a local expert said not a snowball”s chance of London approving such regional funding post Brexit. Ian Paisley Jr urges Northern Irish citizens to apply for Republic of Ireland passports ‘My advice is if you are entitled to second passport then take one. I sign off lots of applications for constituents,’ says Mr Paisley. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/unionist-ian-paisley-jr-mp-constituents-apply-republic-of-ireland-eire-passports-a7102761.html EU should have shown bit more flexibility on migration; plenty of young Europeans who would be stuck in long term unemployment found work there,including my brothers. Yes UK benefited also but some sort of solution could have been concluded.Must really want them gone. This is a keeper http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3658316/Pinch-dreaming-s-day-Britain-stood-proud-tall-reclaimed-birthright.html I wonder how much good Brexit will do for the current account http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/06/25/from-brexit-to-trump/ Lord Hill was UK commissioner with responsibility for finance. He represented the City in Europe at a time when regulation is continually evolving . He has resigned. Euro bank regulation discussions will continue without the UK. Frankfurt will now call the shots . This is the price of Brexit. Comments are closed.