Not all foreign commentary on the Irish “Yes” vote was as flattering as that reported in the Irish papers:
see http://www.gocomics.com/jeffdanziger/2009/10/04/
BTW this shows how enduring certain ethnic stereotypes are in the US!
Author: Brendan Walsh
Over the years there has been lots of discussion about the “fundamentals” of the housing market. Our “strong demographics” were often cited as contributing to the buoyant demand for housing. By this was meant that the rapid growth of the numbers in the household-forming age groups – relative to the number of units being vacated by deaths etc – translated into a firm demand for additions to the housing stock. On this site, Colm McCarthy looked at the impact of demographics on the demand for housing yesterday, referring to recent evidence on the resumption of net emigration. Some of the ensuing discussion tended to get bogged down in trying to interpret very short-term indicators. I thought it would be helpful to provide a medium-term perspective on this aspect of the housing market.
The point of departure is that over the past ten or fifteen years Ireland’s population has been growing faster than that of any other OECD country. For example, our population grew by 14 per cent between 2002 and 2008 when the population of EU15 managed only a 4 per cent increase.
According to today’s Irish Times the legislation to ban leases providing for upward-only rent reviews has been shelved in the interests of NAMA:
Nama sinks upwards-only law
The Government is not to proceed with the abolition of upwards-only rent reviews even though the legislation has already been passed by the Oireachtas, says FBD Retail Excellence which represents over 50 retailers. David Fitzsimons, CEO of Retail Excellence, told members it was very unusual for a minister to announce a measure in the Dáil and then not proceed with it. His interpretation was that advisers to the Department of Finance and Nama had insisted on not abolishing upwards-only reviews as this would further undermine asset values.
Legislation to end upwards-only reviews on new leases was approved by the Dáil before the summer. While it would not have affected existing leases, Retail Excellence says it would have “sent a strong message to the landlords”. Labour TD Ciaran Lynch has tabled a question in the Dáil enquiring whether the legislation is to be implemented.
There are two articles on NAMA in today’s Irish Times.
The one by Anthony Leddin is sceptical, while that by Pat McArdle is more optimistic.
The CSO released the Live Register figures for July today.
Optimists can point to the fact that the month-on-month increase (s.a.) for July was 10,500, slightly down from 12,000 in June, and only one third the January increase of 31,400.
However, the composition of the total is changing towards longer-term unemployment, as may be seen in the shift among males aged 25 and over from Jobseeker’s Benefit, which actually fell in July, to Jobseeker’s Allowance, which rose steeply. (You may get Jobseeker’s Allowance if you don’t qualify for Jobseeker’s Benefit or if you have used up your entitlement to Jobseeker’s Benefit.)
There are now more males aged 25 and over in the Allowance than in the Benefit category. The number of females claiming the Allowance is also rising very rapidly.
No doubt when details on the duration of claims are released, they will confirm the shift towards longer-term unemployment.
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