A Brave Speech from the Irish Central Bank – The Missing Paragraph

The Director of Credit Institutions and Insurance Supervision at the Irish Central Bank, Fiona Muldoon, has been widely praised for her speech to the Irish Banking Federation, calling for faster action by the banks in dealing with the mortgage arrears crisis.  The speech makes clear that the damaging nexus of the former Fianna Fail government, linking the politically connected property development industry to the banking industry and an overly compliant bank regulator, is no longer in place. The Irish Central Bank is now able and willing to stand up to the industry that it regulates in order to protect the public interest, and it is supported in this stance by the ruling coalition. This is an important positive outcome.

The speech was a step forward, but it was not an unusually brave speech, despite the impression one gets from the wide praise it received in media coverage. A truly brave speech would not be widely praised, since it would need to unsettle people rather than confirm their existing beliefs. The speech ignores a big part of the reason for the mortgage arrears crisis – the deep-seated Irish political aversion to house repossessions. Without facing up to this big part of the mortgage arrears crisis, there will be no solution.  Here is an extra paragraph, offered with proper humility, which might have changed Fiona Muldoon’s partly brave speech into a truly brave speech. I have kept the “teenagers” motif, which was a clever oratorical device in the original speech.

“I cannot come here and give a speech about mortgage resolution without once mentioning repossessions; that would be cowering. The notion that 167,000 mortgages-in-arrears can be resolved without a substantial proportion of repossessions is delusional. We on the senior Central Bank staff could give speeches ignoring this reality, thereby pandering to political sentiment, but we will not do so. Meanwhile, the government’s most recent attempt at reforming Ireland’s repossession laws was a shambles, and virtually the entire law was declared invalid by the Justice Dunne ruling in July 2011. This has left Ireland, and it’s banking system, with virtually no repossession system at all since that date. Rather than fix this urgent legislative cock-up of its own creation, the government has chosen to ignore it and pretend that it will go away. The ruling coalition is acting like a bunch of teenagers; blaming everyone else in the household for their problems while neglecting to do their own homework.”

Workshop on Multinational Firms, Trade and Innovation at NUI Maynooth

26-27 October 2012 – Workshop on “Multinational Firms, Trade and Innovation”

Hosted by: Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting at NUI Maynooth

Keynote Speakers: J. Peter NEARY (Oxford) and Peter EGGER (Zurich)

Co-financed by: The Leuven Centre for Irish Studies (LCIS – KU Leuven)

Local Organisers: Gerda Dewit and Dermot Leahy

For more information: http://economics.nuim.ie/news-and-features/international-workshop-multinational-firms-trade-and-innovation-26-27-october-2012

All welcome. For practical information, please contact Gerda.Dewit@nuim.ie

Call for papers – conference on bank resolution mechanisms, Spring 2013

Call for Papers

Bank Resolution Mechanisms

A joint academic-practitioner conference with the theme Bank Resolution Mechanisms wil be held in Dublin, Ireland on Thursday May 23rd, 2013, organized by the Financial Mathematics and Computation Cluster (FMCC) at University College, Dublin and the Department of Economics, Finance & Accounting at National University of Ireland Maynooth.

Extension Needed on the Irish Banks Liquidity Target Date

In early 2009, the Irish domestic banks had three critical problems: insolvency, distress, and a liquidity crisis.  Only one of these problems, the liquidity crisis, was solved successfully at an acceptable cost, via ECB liquidity provision.  This massive liquidity provision was one key motivation for the Financial Measures Programme (FMP), which lays out a plan the banks must follow to become liquidity self-financing.  Now, through no fault of the Irish banks but because of the continuing financial crisis, the liquidity target plan in the FMP is looking much too optimistic and needs some adjustment. 

  • 1. The loan-to-deposits target date should be changed from 2013 to (end-of) 2015.
  • 2. The ECB should make clear that their liquidity assistance to Irish banks is for a longer period than originally envisioned.

Without these adjustments, the Irish domestic banks will be incentivised to continue to starve the domestic economy of credit over the next few years.

Cocos for European Banks

Everyone agrees on the need for big changes to bank resolution mechanisms both in Europe and in the USA. The problems with bank resolution differ in Europe and the USA, and the appropriate solutions differ too. Coco bonds make great sense for the Eurozone but are less appropriate for the USA. European regulators need to think for themselves on cocos, not just ape the muted response of US regulators. Contingent convertible (coco) bank bonds have a trigger point (such as a minimum equity/asset ratio) which when reached immediately forces a conversion of the liability from a debt to an equity claim. So when the bank gets into trouble, junior-grade debt liabilities immediately disappear and are replaced by diluted equity. Coco bank bonds are a very partial solution (at best) to the TBTF bank resolution problem in the USA. For all but the very biggest banks, the harsh and effective resolution system in the USA can close and re-open troubled banks very quickly. This type of super-fast bank resolution will never happen in the fragmented multi-national banking system of the Eurozone. Also, the technical competence of bank oversight in the USA will never be matched across all seventeen countries of the Eurozone, some of whom have long histories of weak and ineffective bank regulation. Cocos can partly substitute for weak regulatory oversight by encouraging greater market discipline emanating from bank bondholders.  Cocos would fit well into the design of a politically-feasible banking union for the Eurozone. 

If the euro survives, some type of contingent convertibility for bank debts in the Eurozone is likely to be part of the new banking system.  Ireland as a small economy in the Eurozone would particularly benefit from a coco feature imposed on bank bonds, and should encourage this regulatory policy innovation.