Labour Costs

The question of achieving an ‘internal devaluation’ has been raised in a late contribution to the previous thread.  It deserves more attention than it tends to receive on this site.

The phrase refers to improving competitiveness in the absence of a national exchange rate by reducing costs and prices relative to those of competitor countries.

Labour costs are a major component of domestic costs and one over which we retain ‘sovereignty’.

In March Eurostat published some relevant data on hourly wage costs. (Today’s Irish Independent carries a summary of the report.)

In 2011 Irish hourly labour costs were €27.4, which was 99.3 per cent of the Eurozone (EZ) average of €27.6.  In 2008 (the peak year) Irish labour costs were 105.7 of the EZ average, so there has been some improvement in this measure of our competitiveness.

However, Irish costs remain much higher than those in several EZ countries.  Here are some relevant comparisons: Spain €20.6, Slovenia €14.4, Portugal €12.1 and Estonia €8.1.  Outside the EZ the UK figure is €20.1, while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics gives a figure of $34.2 for hourly labour costs in US manufacturing in 2010 compared with $36.3 for Ireland.

Obviously all EZ countries cannot gain competitiveness relative to each other by reducing labour costs, although the EZ as a whole could become more cost-competitive relative to the rest of world by this strategy.   However, I think it is clear that we would have to wait a long time to see any dramatic results from this source either in Ireland or in the EZ as a whole.

Andres Velasco at INET

There is an absolutely terrific talk by Andres Velasco here. It would be great if European (and Irish) policy makers would take these kinds of arguments to heart, but at this stage in the Eurozone crisis I am not sure that they will before it is too late.

Target 2: Liquidity and Capital Flight

Fabian Bornhorst and Ireland-expert Ashoka Mody have a good piece here.

Slow Road to a Federal Europe

The Sunday Business Post published an opinion piece of mine on the eurozone crisis yesterday under this title. As its content seems to have disappeared behind a paywall, I attach the piece here

Angela Merkel’s recent reflections on the future of Europe to which I refer are here.

Weidmann, Munchau and Target2

Here are some comments on the reported letter of the Bundesbank president to Mario Draghi.  The blog software is objecting to posts longer than a couple of paragraphs, so for now I’ll just post links to files hosted on my own website.

Update: Here is a short piece on Target2 balances written by two Bundesbank staff that I’m guessing are not too thrilled with Mr. Weidmann’s intervention.