The Irish Economy

• Balance of International Payments Q3 2014
• Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2014
• Trade Statistics September 2014
• Consumer Price Index November 2014
• Tourism and Travel Quarter 3 2014
• Production in Building and Construction Index Quarter 3 2014

For the first three quarters of 2014 GDP is running 4.9 per cent ahead of the equivalent period in 2013. GNP is up 4.7 per cent on the same basis.  Quarter on quarter growth has slowed through the year though much of this is likely the result of distorting effects from the MNC sector.

The “contract manufacturing” effect that influenced the quarterly figures at the start of the year seems to have continued into Q3.  This seems to be supported by the Industrial Production data which includes this “contract manufacturing” effect and is highly volatile at the moment.  After rising by over 20 per cent in the first half of the year the volume of industrial production in manufacturing industries fell by 5 per cent in Q3 so remains at the elevated levels.  The figures show that the effect is arising in the pharmaceutical sector.

The Q3 balance of goods trade in the national accounts was around €3 billion higher than the balance shown by the Trade Statistics figures.  The difference was around €2.5 billion in Q2.

In the first nine months of 2013 the national accounting adjustments for goods trade resulted in a difference of just –€76 million between the trades balances recorded in the national accounts and trade statistics.  For the first nine months of 2014 the balance of goods in the national accounts is €7.9 billion greater than that shown in the trade statistics.

The current account of the balance of payments showed a massive surplus equivalent to 8.4 per cent of GDP in Q3.  This has been driven by an improvement in the merchandise balance (with no corresponding outflow on the services side) which is likely the result of the “contract manufacturing” effect discussed above.

It is possible (i.e. this is a guess) that the “contract manufacturing” effect is arising in an Irish-domiciled company.  If it was the Irish-resident branch of an MNC the profits would be recorded as an outflow in the BoP (and also for GNP) in the same quarter they are earned.  If it is an Irish-domiciled (or headquartered) company the profits would not be recorded as an outflow until a cash dividend is paid (assuming those dividends are paid to non-resident shareholders).  It is not appropriate to say that GNP excludes multinational sector profits.

[As an aside one might consider what impact, if any, these activities are having on Corporation Tax revenues.]

In November, consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent for the second month in a row (there was also a fall of 0.2 per cent in September).  Annual inflation is just 0.1 per cent.  Excluding energy products (-2 per cent) and mortgage interest (-12 per cent) inflation in the remaining 85 per cent of the index is around +1 per cent.

All charts from the CSO.

New Central Bank Economic Letter by Robert Kelly, Terry O’Malley and Conor O’Toole here.

Here.

Contents

Introduction
Adam S. Posen and Ángel Ubide

1 Stimulating Demand to Foster Structural Reform in the Euro Area
Ajai Chopra

2 The European Central Bank Must Act Aggressively to Restore Price Stability in the Euro Area
Ángel Ubide
Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here [xlsx].

3 Role of Fiscal Policy to Spur Growth in Europe
Paolo Mauro

4 An Agenda for Reform of the Euro Area Labor Markets
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here [xlsx].

5 Overhaul of EU Financial System Needed to Foster Growth
Nicolas Véron

The Department of Finance answered an Oireachtas question about the distribution of tax units (ie individuals or couples filing jointly) during the week with the following information

All income earners for Income Tax Year 2015 (provisional)

Range of Gross Income – € Number of Income Earners
0 to 9,000 368,585
9,001 to 12,000 107,297
12,001 to 15,000 116,836
15,001 to 20,000 213,112
20,001 to 25,000 216,626
25,001 to 30,000 201,085
30,001 to 40,000 324,506
40,001 to 50,000 229,709
50,001 to 60,000 157,805
60,001 to 70,000 107,045
70,001 to 80,000 77,378
80,001 to 100,000 91,301
100,001 to 120,000 47,956
120,001 to 150,000 34,809
150,001 to 200,000 22,512
Over 200,001 24,642
Total 2,341,203
The figures are estimates from the Revenue tax-forecasting model using actual data for the year 2012 adjusted as necessary for income, self-employment and employment trends in the interim. These are, therefore, provisional and may be revised. It should also be noted that a married couple or civil partnership that has elected or has been deemed to have elected for joint assessment is counted as one tax unit.