Presentation to MacGill Summer School

Earlier in the week I contributed to a session at the MacGill Summer School on threats to the economy.  My speaking notes for the presentation are here though delivery may have been slightly different.

Conclusion:

We can build 40,000 houses a year, motorways between our regional cities, urban rail connections in the capital, and the roll-out of broadband across the country. We can reduce taxes, increase social transfers and public sector pay. We can spend all the benefits of the surge in Corporation Tax, ultra-low interest rates and the proceeds from the sale of the banks. They are our choices to make. But we cannot do it all and expect the benefits of prudent economic and budgetary management.

No lobby or special interest group sees their request for support as being the one that pushes the economy into the red. And they are right; but we have to watch the totality of what we are doing. If we try to do too much and fly too close to the sun we will fall to earth.

The biggest threat to the Irish economy may not be the decisions of Teresa May or Donald Trump; the biggest threat to the Irish economy are the choices we make ourselves. Let’s make a better fist of getting it right this time.

Free-to-air Broadcasting and the GAA

The evolution of the modern sports league is directly linked to the growth of broadcasting revenue in sport. While many see sports broadcasting as a public good, since the late 1980s there has been a general migration towards subscription-based, satellite channels. The emergence of satellite broadcasting changed the position from one where content competed for scarce distribution outlets on terrestrial television, to one where there is an abundance of spectrum competing for scarce content. The general improvement in broadcasting technology and changes to the regulatory environment have aided this movement, allowing for restricted access.

Like all sports, the GAA has adapted to this evolution. In 2014 the organisation sold broadcasting rights to BSkyB, with 20 matches shown on its Sky Sports channels, 14 of which are exclusive. The continuation of this deal to 2022 has been argued on the grounds that it promotes the game internationally and provides coverage to Irish emigrants.

Not everyone is happy with this. Speaking on The Sunday Game, RTÉ hurling analyst Michael Duignan said that “the biggest disgrace of the weekend was on Saturday evening, that the Waterford-Kilkenny wasn’t shown on free-to-air television”. He continued: “The Sky deal is so wrong on so many levels and it’s not because I’m in RTÉ working for the Sunday Game. My parents are at home. My father is 83 years of age. A savage hurling man. Why should he go to the pub? He doesn’t go to the pub to watch a match. They have enough money in the GAA. How much money do they want? What about the people who have supported it all their lives that can’t watch it? I think it’s disgraceful.”

The Broadcasting (Major Events Television Coverage) Act 1999 (Designation of Major Events) Order 2003 and Broadcasting Act 2009 do prevent “events of major importance to society” from migrating to subscription channels. The following are considered to fall under this category:

• The Summer Olympics
• The All-Ireland Senior Inter-County Football and Hurling Finals
• Ireland’s home and away qualifying games in the European Football Championship and the FIFA World Cup Tournaments
• Ireland’s games in the European Football Championship Finals Tournament and the FIFA World Cup Finals Tournament
• The opening games, the semi-finals and final of the European Football Championship Finals and the FIFA World Cup Finals Tournament
• Ireland’s games in the Rugby World Cup Finals Tournament
• The Irish Grand National and the Irish Derby
• The Nations Cup at the Dublin Horse Show

The Act also states that “Each of Ireland’s games in the Six Nations Rugby Football Championship is designated as an event of major importance to society for which the right of a qualifying broadcaster to provide coverage on a deferred basis on free television services should be provided in the public interest”.

In theory, far more could migrate to subscription platforms, including all provisional finals and the All-Ireland Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals. While this is unlikely to happen, it is possible. After nearly 60 years waiting, I am sure every Waterford fan would say Saturday night’s game was of “major importance”. Those north of the Suir will obviously argue otherwise.

Economist Role at Dublin Chamber

From the Chamber’s Aebhric McGibney:

Job Title:                     Economist

Reporting to:               Director of Public & International Affairs

Company:                    Dublin Chamber

Location:                     7 Clare St. Dublin 2

Role

Dublin Chamber is recruiting an Economist to work as part of the Chamber’s dedicated policy team.

The Economist will be responsible for the development and dissemination of accurate, timely reports and analyses.

Key Activities/Responsibilities

  • Research and policy development.
  • Prepare economic research and policy positions on issues of relevance to the Dublin business community.
  • Analyse and disseminate information on Dublin and the Irish economy.
  • Analyse public policy developments for their impact on Dublin and on business.
  • Draft key policy documents and reports.
  • Contribute to the research agenda of the department, including servicing policy taskforces.
  • Prepare member-driven submissions to Government and contribute to Dublin Chamber’s work on policy briefs which enhance its reputation as a thought-leader on policy research.

Competencies & Qualifications

  • Honours degree in economics or closely related discipline. A relevant post graduate qualification is an advantage.
  • Thorough understanding of economic theory and policy, and current economic issues.
  • Familiarity with economic data sources and other information.
  • Excellent numerical analysis and report writing skills.
  • Strong interpersonal skills.
  • Ability to communicate succinctly and utilise a range of communication methods as appropriate.
  • Excellent organisational skills.
  • Ability to work under pressure and to tight deadlines
  • Strong IT skills
  • Ability to work in team environment

This challenging and rewarding role requires building close professional relationship with senior leaders in business, research institutions and the public sector.

The ideal candidate will have 5 year’s relevant experience. This is a full time permanent contract, with salary commensurate with experience. Applicants should send a CV and cover letter to aebhric@dublinchamber.ie by 5pm Friday 28th July.

Summer 2017 Economic and Social Review

The summer 2017 edition of the ESR is now on-line, including the following articles:

Brendan M. Walsh (1940-2016): The Economist at Work
by J. Peter Neary and Cormac Ó Gráda

Life Expectancy in Ireland since the 1870s
by Brendan Walsh

Civic Returns to Education: Voter Turnout in Ireland
by Yuanyuan Ma

Integrated Modelling of the Impact of Direct and Indirect Taxes Using Complementary Datasets
by Michael Savage

and a policy article on
If Opportunity Doesn’t Knock, Build a Door: Reflecting on a Bioeconomy Policy Agenda for Ireland
by Laura Anne Devaney and Maeve Henchion

2017 Sports Economics Workshop

The 3rd annual Sports Economics Workshop will be held on Friday 21st of July 2017 at University College Cork. The purpose of this workshop is to discuss and stimulate interdisciplinary research ideas from those working in the areas of economics, sport, coaching, public health, management, and related fields in Ireland and abroad.

Professor Bernd Frick (Paderborn University) will deliver the keynote address at 2.00pm in the North Wing Quadrangle Council Room. This lecture will be based on his new book, Conquering the Pitch – The Economics of Soccer.

Professor Frick will explore the development of soccer as the world’s most popular team sport and addresses competitive balance across a large number of leagues. The book provides a thorough understanding of the market for players, coaches and referees, as well as the demand for soccer on television, in stadiums and in the betting office.

Prior to the keynote, a morning session will be held from 10.00am to 11.30am in the Kavanagh Pharmacy Building where a series of technical papers will be presented with contributions from the sports of cycling, rugby and soccer. The full session is as follows:

• Uncertainty of Outcome and Grand Tour Cycling – Joel Maxcy (Drexel University)

• Regional Development in Interwar England through Football Statistics – Babatunde Buraimo (University of Liverpool), Rob Simmons (Lancaster) University) and Stefan Szymanski (University of Michigan).

• Bonus Incentives and Team-Effort Levels in European Cup Rugby: Evidence from the Field – Robbie Butler (University College Cork), Pat Massey (Compecon) and Liam Lenten (La Trobe University).

The morning session will be followed by a roundtable discussion from 11.45am to 1pm where the current and future direction of sports research in Ireland will be discussed. Discussants will include Peter Smyth (Director of Research – Sport Ireland), Elish Kelly (Senior Research Officer- Economic and Social Research Institute) and Sean Lucey (Business School Research Manager – University College Cork).

The workshop is free to attend and those interested should register at www.sportseconomics.org/workshop.

Call for abstracts for a conference panel session on “Trust in Economics”

UCD Philosophy Prof Maria Baghramian is organizing a conference on “Trust, Expert Opinion and Policy” at the end of the Summer in Dublin and there’s to be a panel on “Trust in Economics”. She has asked me to post this call for abstracts. Should be an interesting event.

Place: University College Dublin
Time: August 31-September 2, 2017

Carlo Martini (University of Helsinki) and Don Ross (University College Cork and University of Cape Town) are organising a special session on

Trust in Economics

embedded in the international conference on Trust, Expert Opinion and Policy  (a multidisciplinary conference investigating questions of trust in and the trustworthiness of expert opinion).

The conference is organised by Professor Maria Baghramian (School of Philosophy, University College Dublin) and Professor Luke Drury (School of Cosmic Physics, Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies) as part of their Irish Research Council Project “When Experts Disagree” in collaboration with the project: “The Trinity of Policy-Making: Evidence, Causation, Argumentation”

Keynote speakers at the conference:
Onora O’Neill (University of Cambridge, Philosophy)
Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin, Economics)

Call for Abstracts for the special panel on Trust in Economics

Description of the panel’s topics: What factors influence the extent of public trust in economists? Research and media outlets have recently reported a severe crisis of confidence affecting science, and economics in particular. But available surveys mainly focus on natural and medical sciences. What do we know, based on rigorous and objective surveys, about the attitudes of various publics toward economics? Past and current economic crises and turmoil are often cited to cast doubt on the expertise of economic policy advisors and commentators, but to what extent is this a problem for economics as a science? To what extent does it stem from failures in communication? Are some of the current negative judgments on economics and economists due to lack of adequate effort by economists in building a relation of trust between their science and its public?

We will be selecting a small number of contributed papers addressing, among others, the following questions:

Is there currently a crisis of public trust in economic science?
Do economists value trust in public communication of their science?
Are economists effective in communicating trust?
How should we conceptualize trust in economic expertise?
How can public trust in economics best be empirically studied and measured in surveys?
How can we most effectively build greater public trust in economic expertise?

We invite short abstracts (max 500 words) to be submitted to evidenceandexpertise@gmail.com by July 15 2017. Notifications of accepted papers will be sent out shortly after the deadline.

Deadline for submission of abstracts: July 15 2017