My latest Critical Quarterly column was written in the immediate aftermath of the Catalonian independence referendum, and is available here.
The 32nd Annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held at the Central Bank of Ireland, New Wapping Street, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1 on Thursday May 10th and Friday May 11th, 2018. Gerard O’Reilly (Central Bank of Ireland) is the local organiser (email@example.com).
The Association invites submissions of papers to be considered for the conference programme. Papers may be on any area in Economics, Finance and Econometrics.
The deadline for submitted articles is the 11thof February 2018 and submissions can be made through this site.
On Wednesday, Conor Skehan, outgoing head of the Government’s Housing Agency, was grilled by the Oireachtas Housing Committee for the mortal sin of noticing things and speaking honestly about them. Mr. Skehan claimed that some individuals in Ireland were gaming the public housing system, in order to become eligible for public housing ahead of others. Members of the Committee, devout in their observance of the Holy Laws of political correctness, castigated Mr. Skehan for his public remarks and the evidence he presented to justify them. They noted that it is not possible that a housing-eligible person could game the system – as PC dogma clearly states, lower income individuals are gifted with Immaculate Conception (born without sin) and can do no wrong. So the evidence that Mr. Skehan presented had to be false, and his presentation of it before the committee was proof of his fall from a PC state of grace.
On the plus side, there was at least one honest person in the Oireachtas on Wednesday.
The Bank’s SME Market Report for the second half of 2017 was released this week. The report can be found here.
Key results from the report include:
- Annual gross new lending to non-financial, non-real estate SMEs in Q3 2017 is 24 per cent higher than a year ago.
The SME lending market has become more concentrated in the last six months, with fewer banks holding an ever larger market share.
The share of SMEs in Ireland reporting they did not apply for bank loans because of sufficient internal funding was 50.4 per cent in September 2017.
SME loan rejection rates in Ireland have increased to 13.9 per cent in September 2017 from 8.2 per cent in March 2017.
- Interest rates for SME loans stood at 5 per cent in July 2017, high in a European context.
- When scaled relative to domestic demand, new loan issuance to SMEs in Ireland is very low compared to European comparator economies.
The share of SMEs transitioning into default between the period December 2016 and June 2017 is 2.4 per cent. The highest transition rates reported in the Wholesale/Retail sector (2.9 per cent) and the South-east (3.4 per cent).
We have published the data behind each chart for the first time. The spreadsheet can be found here.
For those of you who can access it: this is a nuanced account of the role of newspapers during the Irish property bubble by a former student of mine and Roy Foster’s.
A joint academic-practitioner conference on the theme Fintech and financial risk management: evolution or revolution? will be held in at the Institute of Bankers, Dublin, Ireland on Monday September 10th, 2018. The conference is organized by the Valuation and Risk Cluster (VAR), the Department of Economics, Finance & Accounting at Maynooth University, the Smurfit School of Business at University College Dublin, and the Central Bank of Ireland.
New financial technologies are producing widespread changes to financial markets and financial systems. The effects of the fintech revolution on risk measurement, analysis and control are not yet clear. How does fintech change the risk profile of financial markets? Can existing risk management systems cope with the new environment? What changes are required to existing financial risk management methods and systems? Will innovative applications of fintech improve risk measurement and management
Potential topics include:
• Flash crashes
• Risk measurement and control of black-box trading algorithms
• The impact of high speed trading on dynamic rebalancing and hedging
• Natural Language Processing (NLP)-based artificial intelligence and its trading impact
• High speed trading networks and systemic risk
• Information and noise cascading in networks
• Stability and liquidity of blockchain protocols
• Portfolio risk management with automated advisor systems
• Credit risk in fintech lending systems
• Fintech’s impact on the business models of existing financial institutions
• Applications of machine learning in risk management systems
Please send papers or detailed proposals by May 31st, 2018 at the latest to Na.Li@ucd.ie; all papers must be submitted electronically in adobe pdf format. There will be both main conference sessions and poster sessions. The academic coordinators for the conference are Gregory Connor, John Cotter and Trevor Fitzpatrick, who can be contacted at Gregory.firstname.lastname@example.org, John.email@example.com, and Trevor.Fitzpatrick@centralbank.ie. The administrative manager for the conference is Na Li who can be contacted at Na.Li@ucd.ie. There are no submission fees or attendance fees for the conference. We are grateful to the Science Foundation of Ireland and the Irish Institute of Bankers for their generous support of this conference. The Valuation and Risk Cluster (VAR) is a collaboration between University College Dublin, Maynooth University, Dublin City University and industry partners, with support from the Science Foundation of Ireland.
The proceedings of the 170th session of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland can now be accessed online. Links to the articles are listed below. The hard copy of the publication will be available from Spring 2018.
Deeter, Karl; Quinn, Frank; Duffy, David (SSISI, 2017)
Linehan, Timothy (SSISI, 2017)
· Barrington Lecture – Seventy Years of Personal Disposable Income and Consumption in Ireland
Stuart, Rebecca (SSISI, 2017)
Barry, Frank (SSISI, 2017)
Callan, T.; Colgan, B.; Keane, C.; Logue, C.; Walsh, J.R.(SSISI, 2017)
· Symposium – Globalisation, Inequality and Populism
Nolan, Brian (SSISI, 2017)
· Symposium – Who is the Populist Irish Voter?
Reidy, Theresa; Suiter, Jane (SSISI, 2017)
· Symposium – Globalisation, Inequality and Populism
Layte, Richard; Landy, David (SSISI, 2017)
Smyth, Diarmaid (SSISI, 2017)
· Using Administrative Data to Change Perception about Caregiving and Improve the Evidence Base Related to Volunteering
O’Reilly, Dermot; Rosato, Michael (SSISI, 2017)
· Proceedings of the Statistical and Social Inquiry of Ireland One Hundred and Seventieth Session: 2016/2017