Commentary, information, and intelligent discourse about the Irish economy
On behalf of the SSISI, please be advised that applications for this year’s Barrington Prize are now open.
Submissions should be based on a paper of not more than 7,500 words addressing a topic of relevance to economic or social policy and of current interest in Ireland.
Submission deadline: 8th September 2017.
Previous winners of the prize include Rebecca Stuart (Central Bank), Ronan Lyons (Trinity College), Mark McGovern (Queens) and Yvonne McCarthy (Central Bank).
Submission details here
The annex to the EU-27 negotiating position released yesterday in Brussels states clearly that the UK will be departing the European Investment Bank, in which it is a 16.1% shareholder.
The UK will expect to be credited with the value of these shares when the exit bill comes to be totted up. How much are they worth?
According to the latest accounts the EIB had net worth of €66.2 billion at end 2016, and has been posting annual profits around €2.7 billion. By Brexit Day (March 29th 2019) the UK share of net worth should be at least €11 billion, not a small amount in the context of the row about money which has already commenced.
There are complications: the EIB retains all earnings and does not pay dividends, so owning shares has not been much fun. But as a result it has a CET1 ratio of 26.4 and leverage under 9, as well as a AAA credit rating, high liquidity and ECB access. This will be the last European bank to go bust.
There is very substantial uncalled capital, in the UK’s case €35.7 billion. This is in effect an option against the shareholders and hence a contingent liability. However there seems to be very low likelihood that this capital will ever be called. If it were called from all shareholders leverage would drop towards 2!
When the UK is ejected, who buys the shares? It could most conveniently be the EIB itself, from reserves. The bank looks to be over-capitalised. Numerous other angles will arise – the EIB shares are a substantial item and have been overlooked.
Many posts on this blog are of the ‘event’ or job posting category, so I’ve created an ‘events’ tab which integrates with calendars and so forth, and this is over to the right. Posters can add a new event in exactly the same way as new posts.
Readers may be interested in the evidence given by Aedin Doris, Darragh Flannery, Shaen Corbet and Charlie Larkin on the subject of income contingent loans.
This is a very important job, directing something many people including me have called for for years. The particulars for the role are here. The PBO will be a key part of the new budgetary framework for the state and the Director role is obviously vital to achieving sound fiscal policy. You can apply for the job here.
From the ad:
The Houses of the Oireachtas Service is the independent civil service agency which supports the running of both Houses of the Oireachtas (Dáil and Seanad Éireann) and provides administrative services on behalf of the Houses of the Oireachtas Commission.
The establishment of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) is a key strategic priority for the Oireachtas in the context of the current Parliamentary Reform Agenda.
The Director will drive the establishment and shape the role of the PBO in consultation with members and other stakeholders. S/he will develop and manage the service capacity of the PBO, will set the strategic vision, provide leadership and deliver objectives.
The successful candidate will have:
• an understanding of fiscal governance requirements and the Irish budgetary process, including key constraints on budgetary policy which applies to general government revenue and expenditure;
• the ability to set the strategic direction and vision for the work of the Parliamentary Budget Office, having regard to the external environment, including the international, EU, and broader public policy and political context;
• a proven track record of significant achievement at a senior level that demonstrates leadership, management and interpersonal skills required for this role.
May 18th, Iontas Building, Maynooth University
European small open economies have often been seen as offering a path to combining competition in a globalised economy with social cohesion and equality. With increasing attention being paid to inequality and the world trade order under growing pressure, it is timely to examine once more the small open economies of Europe and ask whether they still offer a pathway to economic openness with social protection and cohesion.
This conference draws together leading international scholars to explore the experiences of Denmark and Ireland, two of Europe’s most successful small open economies – albeit with very different definitions of success. Speakers include David Soskice, John Campbell, Darius Ornston, Bent Greve and Mary Murphy, Michelle Norris and Michael Byrne, Joe Ruane.
The conference also presents some key findings of the comparative research of the New Deals in the New Economy project, directed by Seán Ó Riain and funded by an ERC Consolidator Grant, 2012-2017.
Please register at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/are-small-open-economies-still-the-model-denmark-and-ireland-in-comparative-perspective-tickets-33810848157
Full details below: Continue reading “Are Small Open Economies Still the Model? Denmark and Ireland in Comparative Perspective”
The Annual IMF Article IV mission to Ireland is taking place for the first two weeks of May. The IMF Special Issues Papers seminar will be hosted at the new Central Bank HQ, North Wall Quay.
The seminar takes place on Monday May 8th from 10am, Heaney Room, 7th Floor, Central Bank of Ireland, NWQ.
For access and security arrangements can you please let internationalrelations@centralbank.ie know if you intend to come.