The Irish Economy

The Department of Finance has published is third annual report on public debt, the aim of which is to provide a comprehensive analysis of public debt dynamics in Ireland. Aside from highlighting the main changes in public debt over the past year, this report introduces several new analytical pieces focusing on broader aspects of government debt, including the State’s balance sheet and several sustainability indicators. This is likely to be useful for students, as well as those with an interest in macroeconomics and the public finances.

You can find the report here.

The details for the 42nd annual Dublin Economics Workshop (DEW) Economic Policy Conference are now live. The conference, which is sponsored by Dublin Chamber, takes place in Clayton Whites Hotel, Wexford on 13/14th September 2019. Further details, including the programme and booking details, can be found at the DEW’s new website.

The line-up this year includes: Robert Watt, Secretary General of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform; Dan O’Brien, Chief Economist with the IIEA and Dermot Nolan, Chief Executive at Ofgem. The conference covers a number of important topics this year, including the 20th Anniversary of the Euro, sustainability, housing and the labour market.

As well as a new website, with an improved booking facility, there are a number of other improvements to the conference, based on feedback received in previous years. This includes a more spacious room within the hotel and a gala dinner on the Friday night.

The latest edition of the Economic and Social Review is now available at www.esr.ie.

This edition contains the following papers:

Globalisation: A Macro-Financial Perspective – Geary Lecture 2019

Philip R. Lane

Household Energy Consumption: A Study of Micro Renewable Energy Systems in Ireland

Michael Chesser, Jim Hanly, Damien Cassells, Nikolaos Apergis

A Populist Wave or Metamorphosis of a Chameleon? Populist Attitudes and the Vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland

Stephen Quinlan, Deirdre Tinney

Policy Section Articles:

Aggressive Tax Planning Practices and Inward-FDI Implications for Ireland of the New US Corporate Tax Regime

Frank Barry

Local Multipliers: IDA Supported Companies in the Irish Regions

Gerard Brady

‘You Don’t Miss the Water ’til the Well Runs Dry’: Factors Influencing the Failure of Domestic Water Charges in Ireland

J. Peter Clinch, Anne Pender

An Analysis of Antenatal Care Pathways to Mode of Birth in Ireland

Paddy Gillespie, Sharon Walsh, John Cullinan, Declan Devane

Users of Dublin airport in 2019 pay the daa up to €9.65 each time they use the airport’s infrastructure. Flying from Dublin to Stansted and back for example incurs four sets of aircraft charges, as each of the airports’ facilities are used twice.

Last month, the Commission for Aviation Regulation (CAR) proposed as part of its draft determination on Dublin airport charges that the price cap be set at €7.50 per passenger for the next five years (2020-2024). The press statement issued by the CAR stated that the proposed new price cap included all of the airport’s future investment plan, costing some €1.8bn. The CAR invited the views of interested parties by a deadline of 8 July.

The daa’s responding press statement expressed extreme concern at the proposed price cap especially because in the daa’s view the lower average charge  would not allow the airport operator to implement its investment programme.  On 14 June, the Irish Times reported that the airport CEO, Mr. Dalton Philips, had “stood down” work on new investment at the airport in protest at the proposed reduction in the price cap, seeking instead that the price stay close to €9.65 in the next regulatory period. Mr. Philips also set out the daa view on the Marian Finucane Show last Sunday morning (inter alia claiming the lower price cap would lead to a ‘yellow pack’ airport).

On the face of it, one might easily wonder whether higher (investment) spending could be funded from lower charges. This post is an analysis of that aspect of the proposed airport price cap.

Call for Submissions

The Barrington Medal is awarded annually by the Council of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland under the auspices of the Barrington Trust (founded in 1836 by the bequest of John Barrington). The award, which includes both a silver medal and €1,000, is intended to recognise a promising new researcher in the economic and social sciences in Ireland. This will be the 171st anniversary of the lecture series and the recipient will be the 130th Barrington Lecturer. A list of recipients over the past 35 years is included in the attached call for submissions.

The lecture should be based on a paper of not more than 7,500 words addressing a topic of relevance to economic or social policy and of current interest in Ireland. In treating the issue of economic or social policy, the paper may either report the findings of a statistical research study dealing with some aspect of the problem or deal with the underlying theoretical considerations involved, or preferably combine these two approaches. It should be written in a manner that makes it accessible to non-specialists in the area. More technical material may be included in an appendix. The paper is published in the Journal of the Society, so it should not have been published before (nor should it be published subsequently without the prior consent of the Council of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland).

Candidates, who at the time of their submission must be not more than 35 years of age, should at least submit a detailed abstract of approximately 1,000 words on the proposed lecture, with preference being given to full papers. A short CV and the name of a proposer who is familiar with their work should also be submitted. Entries will be accepted until 31st August, 2019 and should be sent to the Honorary Secretaries of the Society via email, using the email address secretary@ssisi.ie.

This year’s Irish Postgraduate and Early Career Economics Workshop will be hosted by the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway on Thursday June 6th and Friday June 7th. The event is aimed at PhD students, PostDocs, early career researchers and advanced Masters students based in higher education and research institutions on the island of Ireland. The meeting will feature the work and findings of scholars in economics and related fields and will provide an excellent opportunity to engage with research results and work-in-progress in a welcoming and constructive environment. We encourage those working on economics research to attend.

This year the workshop will include a range of thematic sessions and training events, including full paper thematic sessions with discussants and early-stage/emerging research findings thematic sessions with general open discussion. Both will take place on Friday June 7th, along with a short training session on ‘Publishing your Research in Peer-Reviewed Journals – Tips from Journal Editors’. In addition, a workshop on ‘An Introduction to Machine Learning for Economists’ will take place on the afternoon of Thursday June 6th (see below), followed by a social event that evening. While the abstract submission date has passed, it is still possible to register to attend the workshop and associated training events, which are free. Please do so at https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/irish-postgraduate-and-early-career-economics-ipece-workshop-at-nui-galway-tickets-56359973197 .

Workshop Programme

The programme is available at http://www.nuigalway.ie/media/publicsub-sites/economics/files/other/Draft-Programme.pdf

Workshop Venue

The workshop will take place in the JE Cairnes Building at NUI Galway. Please see Building 22 at https://www.nuigalway.ie/media/buildingsoffice/files/maps/M12122_General_CampusMapWEBpdf220217.pdf. For details about getting to NUI Galway, please visit http://www.nuigalway.ie/about-us/contact-us/how-to-find-us.html. Please note that on campus parking is very limited and we suggest parking off site if travelling by car.

IPECE Training Event – An Introduction to Machine Learning for Economists

This training event will be delivered by Dr. Achim Ahrens from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on Thursday 6th June from 1pm to 5pm. It will provide an overview of popular Machine Learning techniques and the focus will be on LASSO regression, a regularization and model selection method that can deal with high-dimensional data. It will also discuss how the LASSO and other Machine Learning tools can be useful for economists; in particular, how Machine Learning can improve predictions and facilitate causal inference. The presentation will be followed by a demonstration using the Stata packages LASSOPACK and PDSLASSO. Please visit the Eventbrite link above to register to attend.

Contact
The local organising committee consists of Laura Carter, John Cullinan, Daniel Cassidy, Jason Harold, Dan Kelleher, Doris Laepple, Luke McGrath, Shikha Sharma and Michelle Queally at NUI Galway. Please direct inquiries to IPECE2019@gmail.com.

Support
Generous support from the Irish Economic Association (IEA) and the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway is gratefully acknowledged.

The Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland [ssisi.ie]

The Annual General Meeting of 172nd session of the Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland will take place at 5.30pm, on Thursday, May 23rd, at the Institute of International & European Affairs, 8 North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1. The agenda for the AGM, and related papers, are available from the SSISI website.

The meeting will be followed by the closing presidential address by Professor Frances Ruane, entitled “The Changing Patterns of Production and Consumption of Official Statistics in Ireland, 1989-2019”. Non-members are welcome to attend from 5.30pm and to participate in the discussion of Prof Ruane’s address.

Revenue today published our Annual Report for last year, detailing the activities behind the collection of Exchequer receipts of €54.6 billion in 2018.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/press-office/press-releases/2019/pr-090519-revenue-publishes-2018-annual-report.aspx

Also published (links at the bottom of the page above) are a series of research papers and notes including our analysis of Corporation Tax payments in 2018 as well as returns for 2017.

The Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland [ssisi.ie]

invites you to attend its 2019 Symposium on the following topic:

“The Economies on the Island of Ireland“

The Symposium will take place in Dublin on Thursday, April 25th, at 5.30pm, in the Achill Room on the 2nd floor of Chartered Accountants House, Pearse Street, Dublin 2. Non-members are welcome to attend and participate in the discussion.

NTMA Chief Economist Rossa White and Lisa Sheenan of Queen’s University Belfast have released a new paper, characterising Ireland’s financial cycle, in the first of a new NTMA Research series. Those interested in learning more can read the full paper here.

Dr. Aine Sheehan will present on “Economics of Empire: Markets and Fairs in 19th-century Ireland” on Friday 5th April at the Military History Archives, Cathal Brugha Barracks.

Dr.Sheehan makes the local global to explore connections between grassroots economics at markets and fairs, local politics and the wider imperial context, to shine new light on Ireland’s place within the British Empire of the 19th century and its everyday impact on Irish producers and consumers.

The talk and screening is free but spaces are limited and should be booked in advance on Eventbrite:https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/economics-of-empire-markets-fairs-in-19th-century-ireland-tickets-59379130578

The Spring edition of the Economic and Social Review is now available here.

It is a bit of a bumper volume with special editions in both the articles section on measuring economic potential and a special policy section focusing on housing.

Articles:

Foreword to Special Edition of The Economic and Social Review by Eddie Casey.

Inside the “Upside Down”: Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap by Eddie Casey

Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging by Michael O’Grady

The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight? by Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey

Measuring the Cycle and Structural Shocks by Marta Lopresto and Garry Young

Policy Section Articles

Exploring Affordability in the Irish Housing Market by Eoin Corrigan, Daniel Foley, Kieran McQuinn, Conor O’Toole and Rachel Slaymaker

The Scale and Impact of the Local Authority Rent Subsidy by Eoin Corrigan

Social Housing in the Irish Housing Market by Dorothy Watson and Eoin Corrigan

This year’s Irish Postgraduate and Early Career Economics (IPECE) Workshop will be hosted by the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway on Thursday June 6^th and Friday June 7^th. The event is aimed at PhD students, PostDocs, early career researchers and advanced Masters students based in higher education and research institutions on the island of Ireland. The meeting will feature the work and findings of scholars in economics and related fields, and will provide an excellent opportunity to present research results and work-in-progress in a welcoming and constructive environment. We strongly encourage those working on economics-related research to submit.

IPECE Webpage

We now have a dedicated workshop webpage: http://www.nuigalway.ie/business-public-policy-law/cairnes/subjectareas/economics/ipece2019/. Please check in for full details of the workshop and for regular updates.

IPECE Training Event – An Introduction to Machine Learning for Economists

This training event will be delivered by Dr. Achim Ahrens from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on Thursday 6^th June from 1pm to 5pm. It will provide an overview of popular Machine Learning techniques and the focus will be on LASSO regression, a regularization and model selection method that can deal with high-dimensional data. It will also discuss how the LASSO and other Machine Learning tools can be useful for economists; in particular, how Machine Learning can improve predictions and facilitate causal inference. The presentation will be followed by a demonstration using the Stata packages LASSOPACK and PDSLASSO.  

Deadline for Submission

The deadline for abstract submission is Monday April 1^st. Applicants will receive notification shortly afterwards. Please note that if you wish to be considered for a discussant session, you will be expected to submit a full paper by Monday May 20^th. Please see the IPECE webpage for further details.

Support

Support from the Irish Economic Association (IEA) and the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway is gratefully acknowledged.

The Foundation for Fiscal Studies presents the annual Miriam Hederman O’Brien Prize to recognise outstanding contributors in the area of Irish fiscal policy. The aim is to recognise those who promote the study and discussion of fiscal, economic and social policy. This forms an important part of the Foundation’s objective of promoting understanding and knowledge in these areas

Last year’s winner and shortlisted nominations are available here.

Call for Nominations

Nominations are invited for work completed during 2018 that has added to the public knowledge or understanding in areas such as taxation, public expenditure and other related fiscal policy topics. These contributions may include research papers, reports, books, book chapters, blog posts, opinion pieces, newspaper articles, television or radio contributions/documentaries or any other method which has publicly provided new and relevant insights into these topics in Ireland.

A shortlist of nominations will be compiled with the winners selected by a judging panel for the Prize. The judging panel will consist of national and international experts and is chaired by FFS Chairman.

The successful contribution will be awarded the Miriam Hederman O’Brien Prize which includes a cash prize of €1,000 and commemorative Gold Medal. The judging panel may also recognise other contributions from different categories or other types of contributions and award them appropriately.

Criteria / Eligibility

·         The Prize is for work completed during the period 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2018.

·         There are no age or nationality criteria.

·         No individual may be awarded the Prize more than once.

·         Jointly-produced work will be considered, provided that no contributor has previously been awarded the Prize.

The Nomination Process

·         The closing date for nominations is 15 May 2019.

·         Those making nominations should briefly specify (100-150 words) why they believe the work is suitable for consideration for the Prize. They should also provide a weblink or other details of the work being nominated.

·         Those making nominations may nominate more than one piece of work.

·         Those making nominations are encouraged to nominate any pieces of work they feel meet the criteria for the prize, regardless of whether or not they themselves are the author. Authors may also nominate their own work.

·         Nominations for the Prize should be made by email to info@fiscal.ie.

Wednesday April 3^rd 2019

National University of Ireland, 49 Merrion Square E, Dublin 2

4:00-5:30pm

REPORT LAUNCH

‘Micro-Businesses in Ireland: From Ambition to Innovation’

Authors: Dr. Jane Bourke & Prof. Stephen Roper

Launched by Senator Pádraig Ó Céidigh

PANEL DISCUSSION

‘Supporting Micro-Business Growth in Ireland’

Chair: Prof. Stephen Roper (ERC & WBS). Panel:  Senator Padraig O’Ceidigh, Sven Spollen-Behrens (Small Firms Association), Lisa Collins (Micro-Business Owner), & Dr. Jane Bourke (UCC & ERC)

As places are limited please register here

Further information is available here 

Professor David O’Mahony, former UCC Professor of Economics, passed away on March 10th.  He was Professor of Economics in UCC from 1964 to 1988.

A highly-respected scholar, his works include The Irish economy: an introductory description (1964), Ireland and the EEC: political, legal and economic aspects (1972) and The general theory of profit equilibrium: Keynes and the entrepreneur economy (1998) (with Connell Fanning). In addition, he authored several Economic Research Institute (now ESRI) papers, in particular on collective bargaining and industrial relations.     

Professor O’Mahony was widely held in great respect and affection by colleagues and students alike and will be sadly missed.

Funeral arrangements: https://rip.ie/death-notice/professor-david-o-mahony-sunday-s-well-cork/382183

The 42nd DEW Annual Economic Policy Conference will take place on 13/14 September 2019 in Clayton Whites Hotel, County Wexford. DEW is Ireland’s longest standing and premier forum for economic policy debate. Founded in 1977, the annual economic policy conference is attended by policymakers, academics and practitioners with a focus on evidence-based policymaking. We are now in the process of assembling speakers for this year’s event and would like to invite a call for papers in the following areas:

• The economics of health
• Sustainability & climate change
• Small open economies
• Labour market
• 20th Anniversary of the Euro
• Housing

Submissions should be sent to sarah@dublineconomics.com, by Thursday 18 April. All submissions will be treated fairly but cannot be guaranteed to be accepted for inclusion in the conference.

DEW Committee

Here is a somewhat longer version of an Op Ed I wrote for a recent edition of the Irish Independent.

The article is based on the accompanying Table, of which the current version is drawn from last year’s Issues Paper (p.52) published by the aviation regulator’s office. The Table aims to set out, comprehensively and (crucially) ex ante, all of the different ways in which a projects costs might differ from the projected costs – some good, some not so good, some catastrophic – and the appropriate regulatory policy for each.

How are we to protect taxpayers from outrageous cost escalation on public investment projects that draw from a finite pool of taxpayer funds and thereby squeeze out other plans? There may be lessons from the approach of regulatory offices that organise their assessment of capital expenditures with a view to protecting, for example, airport passengers from costs overruns on major projects such as the second terminal (T2) at Dublin airport.

The Statistical & Social Inquiry Society of Ireland [ssisi.ie]

invites you to attend the 2019 Barrington Lecture on the following topic:

“US corporate tax rate cuts: Spillovers to the Irish economy“

By: Daragh Clancy (European Stability Mechanism)

to be delivered on: Thursday 21st February 2019 at 5.30pm

at the: Royal Irish Academy

The proposer of thanks is Professor Frank Barry, Trinity College Dublin.

Abstract: We examine spillovers to the Irish economy from US corporate income tax rate cuts and find they lead to a small but persistent increase in Irish output. Our analysis of the transmission channels shows that this expansion is largely driven by an increase in investment, employment and exports in the externally-financed industrial sector. We also find that spillovers from US corporate income tax cuts are larger when the Irish economy is already expanding. Our findings suggest that the changing structure of the Irish economy means any spillovers to real economic activity from the recent US corporate tax cuts could be relatively minor. However, the shifting focus of foreign multinational corporations’ operations in Ireland means that there is a risk of a capital outflow.

Non-members are welcome to attend and participate in the discussion.

The 33rd Annual Irish Economic Association Conference will be held in The River Lee Hotel, Western Road, Cork City on Thursday May 9th and Friday May 10th, 2019.

The keynote speakers will be Dr Asli Demiguc-Kunt, Director of Research at the World Bank, and Prof. Valentina Bosetti, Professor of Economics at Bocconi and a member of the IPCC.

The Association invites submissions of papers to be considered for the conference programme. Preference will be given to submissions that include a full paper. Papers may be on any area in Economics, Finance and Econometrics.

The deadline for submissions is Tuesday 19th of February 2019 and submissions can be made through this site.

https://iea2019.exordo.com

This year’s Irish Postgraduate and Early Career Economics Workshop will be hosted by the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway on Thursday June 6th and Friday June 7th. The event is aimed at PhD students, PostDocs, early career researchers and advanced Master students based in higher education and research institutions on the island of Ireland. The meeting will feature the work and findings of scholars in economics and related fields, and will provide an excellent opportunity to present research results and work-in-progress in a welcoming and constructive environment. We strongly encourage those working on economics-related research to submit.

Format
This year the workshop will include a range of thematic sessions and training events. For participants with a full paper, thematic sessions with discussants will be available i.e. after your presentation, a discussant will present a brief assessment of your paper with feedback. For participants with early-stage/emerging research findings, thematic sessions with general open discussion of your research will be available. Both will take place on Friday June 7th, along with a short training session on ‘Publishing your Research in Peer-Reviewed Journals – Tips from Journal Editors’. In addition, a workshop on ‘An Introduction to Machine Learning for Economists’ will take place on the afternoon of Thursday June 6th, followed by a social event that evening. A full schedule will be announced in due course.

Submission
As the workshop and associated training events are free to attend, no financial assistance for travel or accommodation can be provided. Researchers wishing to submit their work for consideration are advised to submit a 2-page extended abstract to IPECE2019@gmail.com. Applicants are asked to include their name, institution or affiliation, and current academic status (PhD, PostDoc, Early Career, Masters) when submitting an abstract. Please also indicate if you would like to present at a discussant session. All of the above information should be attached in a single PDF or Word File and the deadline for abstract submission is Monday April 1st. Applicants will receive notification shortly afterwards. Please note that if you wish to be considered for a discussant session, you will be expected to submit a full paper by Monday May 20th.

Contact
The local organising committee consists of Laura Carter, John Cullinan, Jason Harold, Dan Kelleher, Doris Laepple, Shikha Sharma and Michelle Queally at NUI Galway. Please direct inquiries to IPECE2019@gmail.com.

Support
Generous support from the Irish Economic Association (IEA) and the Discipline of Economics at NUI Galway is gratefully acknowledged.

I have been puzzled since the withdrawal agreement terms first emerged that the UK is to be credited with no more than its subscribed capital on exit from the European Investment Bank. The EIB makes serious money, has not paid dividends and must be the most solvent bank around, This from the House of Lords Committee yesterday:

https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-financial-affairs-subcommittee/news-parliament-2017/brexit-eib-report-published/

‘The Government failed to provide a satisfactory explanation of its negotiation position on the return of the UK’s capital. As a profitable business, there seems to be a plausible case that the UK should receive some share of that profit. A 16.1 percent share of the EIB’s retained earnings would be €7.6 billion, almost 20 percent of the UK’s financial settlement of £35–39 billion.’

The UK gets just €3.5 billion. The implied price-to-book is a steal for the surviving shareholders.

CHAPTER 8: BREXIT

1. Young (1999), p. 483.
2. The speech is available at https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/113686.
3. Young (1999), p. 479.
4. Grob-Fitzgibbon (2016), pp. 438–9.
5. The speech itself, as well as a superbly useful range of accompanying documents, is available at https://www.margaretthatcher.org/archive/Bruges.asp.
6. Young (1999), p. 423.
7. Grob-Fitzgibbon (2016), p. 451.
8. Grob-Fitzgibbon (2016), p. 453; https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1990/09/27/the-chequers-affair/.
9. A reference presumably to the European Commission’s Commissioners.
10. Cited in Seldon and Collings (2000).
11. Young (1999), p. 362.
12. https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108234.
13. http://www.britpolitics.co.uk/speeches-sir-geoffrey-howe-resignation.
14. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/1701003.stm.
15. Young (1999), p. 433.
16. I have put the word ‘victory’ in inverted commas to highlight the way in which much of the British political class and media have traditionally portrayed EU negotiations in terms of victory and defeat, rather than compromise and mutual benefit.
17. The origins of these numbers, which seem arbitrary, are murky. On one account the 3 per cent figure is, like VAT, a gift from France to the world: see https://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/20101001trib000554871/ a-l-origine-du-deficit-a-3-du-pib-une-invention-100-francaise.html.
18. Which is why I and 38 other Irish citizens were able to stand for election in the French municipal elections of 2014. And it should be noted that there were also 389 British candidates; see http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/decryptages/2014/03/19/25003-20140319ARTFIG00358-d-o-viennent-les-candidats-etrangers-aux-municipales.php.
19. See Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1993) for a detailed account of the EMS crisis of 1992–3. Like all the Brookings Papers it is freely available online at https://www.brookings.edu/project/brookings-papers-on-economic-activity/.
20. Young (1999), p. 369.
21. Both statements are equally true of the Clinton years.
22. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37550629. 23. Shipman (2017), p. 6.
23. Kenny and Pearce (2018). 25. Ibid., pp. 131, 145.
24. Shipman (2017), p. 7.
25. Ibid., p. 8.
26. Delors’s statement is available at https://core.ac.uk/display/76794060; the quotations in the text are taken from pp. 17–18.
27.   Gstöhl (1994).
28. Shipman (2017), p. 15.
29. Available at http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/21787/0216-euco-conclusions.pdf.
30. Shipman (2017), pp. 588–9.
31. See O’Toole (2018).
32. See for example https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/boris-johnson-european-union-hitler-1.3583108.
33. Although I was a member of the Centre for European Reform’s Commission on the UK and the Single Market, I declined to sign a resultant letter to the newspapers on what the UK ought to do, as well as similar subsequent efforts, for two reasons. First, I’m not British, and I know from the Irish experience how irritating it is to have foreigners telling you what to do at times like this. And second, it wasn’t at all clear to me that economists’ letters were particularly helpful. On that score at least, I think I was (unfortunately) right.
34. The statement led to a sharp rise in the British pound and a bigger subsequent collapse, all of which helped certain lucky investors to make a lot of money (Shipman 2017, pp. 432–4).

The latest edition of the Economic and Social Review is  now available (Vol 49, No 4, Winter 2018) containing the following articles:

The Impact of Displacement on the Earnings of Workers in Ireland by           Nóirín McCarthy and Peter W. Wright

Incumbency Advantage in an Electoral Contest by Matthew T. Cole,             Ivan Pastine and Tuvana Pastine

Re-Examining the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect? by Saafi Sami and Nouira Ridha

Policy Section Articles

Making the Worst of a Bad Situation: A Note on Irexit by Ronald B. Davies and Joseph Francois

Optimum Territorial Reforms in Local Government: An Empirical Analysis of Scale Economies in Ireland  by Gerard Turley, John McDonagh,             Stephen McNena and Arkadiusz Grzedzinski

A Contingent Valuation Analysis of the Galway City Museum: Welfare Estimates for Attendance in the Absence of an Admission Fee by               Vincent G. Munley