Landon Thomas of the NYT turns his attention to Norway’s prudent approach to fiscal policy and banking in this interesting article.
Ireland’s economy may not be doing so well, but Ireland’s economists are. Karl Whelan is the latest entry in the IDEAS/RePEc Global Top 1000 of Economists. With Karl, there are now 8 Ireland-based economists in the Top 1000. That is 0.8%. The population of Ireland is less than 0.1% of the world population, about 0.3% of the population of developing countries, and about 0.4% of the population of high income countries. So, we’re punching above our weight.
For those who might be interested in the NAMA debates, the full text of all Dail debates can be found here.
Lots of interesting stuff was discussed in last night’s debate but my favourite moment was the Minister for Finance’s perfect invocation of the Baconian equivalence fallacy, complete with brass plate metaphor:
Nationalisation of the whole of the Irish banking system, which is what is being proposed in the motion, will not be the short-term panacea that some envisage. Wholesale nationalisation would do absolutely nothing to resolve to the banks’ bad debt problems and get credit flowing again to support economic recovery and jobs. Nationalisation may change the brass plate, but it does not provide the individual institution with any additional funding or any resolution of the bad debt problems which cripple our financial institutions.
What is US foreign direct investment in Ireland up to? A lot of different things. Some firms are here to produce and ship to the EU, others are here for research purposes, and yes, some are here primarily for tax purposes. This latter group is the one that will be most sensitive to changes in tax policy, both in the US and elsewhere as they plan where to have their income accrue for tax purposes. In a previous post, I argued that the Obama administration’s recent proposals would not have a substantial impact on employment in Ireland. Some have taken this to mean that I am suggesting that there will be little impact on the value of FDI here. Not so. The combination of low Irish tax rates and US tax policy give firms a reason to declare their foreign earned income in Ireland and to reinvest those earnings in order to avoid costly repatriation taxes. Do firms take advantage of this? Anecdotal evidence surely indicates that they do. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us a better insight into how this combination makes Ireland a bit unusual. Using 2006 data (the most recent for which data were available on the website), I was able to construct the following table that gives the top eleven countries by the sales/employee, FDI position/employee, and assets/employee (all numbers are in 1000s of US dollars).
Trinity College Dublin
(Department of Economics and IIIS)
and the
Dublin Economics Workshop
Conference
IRISH ECONOMIC POLICY FOR THE CRISIS: WHAT’S NEXT?
J.M. Synge Lecture Theatre (Room 2039), Arts Building,
Trinity College Dublin
Wednesday 20th May, 2009
PROGRAMME
Session 1: 1.30-3.30
Chair: Jim O’Brien, Second Secretary General, Department of Finance
John Fitz Gerald (ESRI) on Competitiveness
Karl Whelan (UCD) on Potential Output
Brian Nolan (UCD) on Inequality
Session 2: 4:00-6:00
Chair: John McHale, Queens University, Canada & NUIG
Colm McCarthy (UCD) on Pensions
Philip R. Lane (Trinity College Dublin) on Fiscal Policy
Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin) on Banks