I don’t have time to report any detailed analysis of today’s Live Register figures but it is worth noting that September was the first month since December 2007 in which the unemployment rate did not rise. The standardised unemployment rate remained at 12.6%. As an aside, I’d note that this is still two tenths higher than the rate previously reported for August because higher second quarter unemployment in the QNHS, upon which this measure is based, saw the previous figures revised upwards.
Combined with last week’s GDP release, which showed flat seasonally adjusted GDP in the second quarter—consistent with a 6.7 percent year over year decline if GDP stayed flat for the second half of the year—there are now good reasons to believe that the economy is bottoming out. Of course, there must be concerns that further fiscal contraction could undo this stabilisation but hopefully by the time this kicks in there will be a decent world recovery to help out.