Lies, damn lies, and statistics

Rarely have statistics been misused so much for political purposes as when recently the ECB published the results of a survey of household wealth in the Eurozone countries.

Thus begins a new column by Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji, which points out, inter alia, that the median household wealth statistics currently being used by some German economists and commentators to justify future wealth grabs in the Eurozone periphery are in fact telling us something important about German inequality.

But it gets worse. Tim Worstall (H/T Eurointelligence) quotes the ECB report as follows:

2.2.3 VOLUNTARY PRIVATE PENSIONS/WHOLE LIFE INSURANCE
This section shows how households save for retirement using voluntary private pension
plans and/or whole life insurance contracts. Public pensions and occupational pension plans
are not considered in this report, as the value of some public pensions and occupational pension
plans can be difficult for households to evaluate. Cross-country comparisons are challenging in the sense that institutional arrangements across countries with respect to the different modes of retirement savings, such as voluntary private versus public or occupational, can be quite substantial. A deeper analysis of these differences falls outside the scope of this report.

As Worstall says, this means that many households’ major asset is being excluded, essentially on the grounds that including them would be really rather difficult.

Time for the report to be consigned to the dustbin, surely, and for those people currently abusing it to spend even five minutes or so reflecting on what the likely political impact would be if their proposals were implemented.

Mario Draghi: The role of monetary policy in addressing the crisis in the euro area

This speech by Mario Draghi is generating some interest in comments.   It usefully puts the ECB’s approach to monetary policy during the crisis in a comparative perspective. 

Some complementary reading: Paul Krugman on euro area macro policy; Simon Wren-Lewis and Antonio Fatas on the dual mandate; Janet Yellen on communication/expectations management at the Fed; and Gavyn Davies on inflation targeting.   On the subject of inflation targeting, this new Vox ebook contains a number of interesting perspectives, including chapters by Stefan Gerlach and Karl Whelan (pdf here). 

Conference on “Understanding the Changing Worlds of Capitalism”, May 1st

Understanding the Changing Worlds of Capitalism:
New Perspectives on the Political Economy of Work, Production and Employment Regimes

A Research Conference
NIRSA/ Sociology
May 1st 2013, Renehan Hall, NUI Maynooth

Sponsored by the European Research Council and the Irish Research Council

The various forms of capitalism are in crisis, as are many of the theories that have dominated understandings of capitalism in recent decades.  This conference draws together leading international scholars to examine changing European capitalisms, with a particular focus on how the organisation of work, employment and production regimes is changing. We explore how theories must shift to account for changing capitalisms.

Speakers include Dorothee Bohle, Rossella Ciccia, Bernhard Ebbinghaus, Eoin Flaherty, Béla Greskovits, Peer Hull Kristensen, Frances McGinnity, Lars Mjoset, Mary Murphy, Seán Ó Riain, Luis Ortiz, Karen Shire, Markus Tünte.

Full programme and information here.

The conference explores a variety of theories of political economy (e.g. Polanyian, institutionalist, pragmatist); different forms of capitalism in Europe (liberal, Christian democratic, social democratic, post-socialist, Mediterranean); and various institutions shaping work (e.g. welfare regimes, industrial relations, family, transnational work and technological change).

Registration is free but places are limited.

Please register here.

Enquiries to newdeals@nuim.ie

Click here for information on how to get to NUI Maynooth Campus by road or rail

Institutional Sector Accounts: Non-Financial

The CSO have published the Q4 2012 and 2012 (preliminary) non-financial ISAs.  The preliminary annual data are not included in the release (they can be roughly derived from the online quarterly dataset) but the commentary indicates that there were annual rises in the household sector for all of income, consumption and savings.

Gross disposable income displayed an annual rise 2.5% to €86.3 billion, with increases in wages (+1.0% to €68.8 billion) and, in particular, self-employed profits (+11.1% to €19.5 billion) accounting for the rise.  Household expenditure rose 0.5% to €77.9 billion and the household gross savings ratio increased from 10.7% in 2011 to 12.5% in 2012 with gross savings of €11.1 billion.

The measure of the government sector in the accounts recorded a net borrowing requirement of €12.2 billion in 2012.  Gross savings increased in the NFC sector, rising from €14.7 billion in 2011 to €16.4 billion in 2012.

Keynes at UCD

This week marks the eightieth anniversary of Keynes’s inaugural Finlay lecture at UCD.

Charles Lysaght has a background piece about it in today’s Irish Times.