Good News on the Labour Market

Great news! Would not be surprising to a lot of return migration by Irish nationals in the next few years if the Labour market continues its recovery.

JF,

It is indeed good news, although I fear we are a long way from normal.
Still it confirms that the economy is trying to drag itself out of the swamp.
Imagine if we had proper debt restructuring such a making the PNs go away or writing down the bonds in the ECB portfolio to zero.

Now would be a good time to take action on strategic defaulters. Start with the BTL sector and sieze the property of some defaulters in Dublin and release into the market. A bit of social welfare reform to tighten up on the explosion in the. Numbers claiming DB would be useful.

‘… the continued high level of net emigration, with an increase in the outflow of Irish nationals …

A small human capital system that loses 3-400,000 of the mainly young & reasonably well educated of its citizenry, imho, would be viewed as negative.

The ‘nature’ of the neu-jobs in the private sector would be illustrative …

BL:

You are using the quarter-on-quarter changes before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally-adjusted data show a slight fall in unemployment from Q1 to Q2.

@ All

The reality is that Ireland is dealing with the repeated mismanagement of her economy in the same old way; emigration!

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d27e950a-10bf-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dHck67hw

What is different now from previous historical experiences could be summed up as follows; (i) the country is broke (ii) it is a member of a monetary union (iii) and of a European Union which guarantees free movement of labour and (iv) has an industrial policy based on low tax rates which attracts multinationals with a skilled labour demand which the country is incapable of meeting; leading to more emigration!

As before, a craft made more buoyant by emigration will eventually re-float with the permanent crew still aboard.

@ Peter Stapleton

Absolutely! Apart from those in PPE (permanent pensionable employment) in various “sheltered” sectors of the economy who stick like limpets to the rock of Hibernia; while they watch their children float abroad!

@ BL: ” Come back in two years time.”

Now, that’s a good idea!

When I read this, the first thing that came to mind was…….less people about to drown as more people make their way onto the lifeboats…..Titanic 1912.

Maybe Mary Coughlan summed it up when she said ” At least they are better educated this time” when referring to our dearly departed….

I wonder if we referred to them as “long distance commuters” could we add all the immigrants to the “employed” column……would do wonders for the figures……..forget about massaging the figures people, it is all about language and presentation…..

@ MH

We should be careful, it seems to me, not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. In overall terms, the CSO figures bring good news as Brendan Walsh points out. The question is the price being paid.

I am not even sure that any alternative policy exists to that currently being followed. What grates with me is the escapist nature of the debate (in which the looming pension crisis does not even get a mention). That it can take place in this way is, paradoxically, further evidence of a return to some – considerably lower – level of economic equilibrium.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/almost-400000-mortgages-in-negative-equity-report-shows-29538374.html

@ Tull

“eureka,
Perhaps you would give us the benefit of your in depth analysis showing banks need more capital. Is is based on numbers or just another hunch?”

most of the vocal analysis is hunch based. Actual facts-n-figures analysis has generally suggested either no recap required or only a relatively small amount. Most people forget the banks have 8-9bn in spare capital still on hand, and that there isn’t actually going to be a need to write down 50% of mortgages.

@ Tull & Bond
It’s the connectedness of things that causes the trouble
We are in for another tough budget which can only put upward pressure on the default rate and will hit growth next year.
I hope I’m wrong but I do think that there will be a need for recapitalization in the order of 10-15 billion across all banks. But it’s sunny and its Friday so I’m not going to worry too much. Could well be wrong

@Tull

Do you think BKIR might manage a Price to earnings ratio by the end of the decade ?

If we go back to risk off with a jolt surely there is a possibility the banks will run out of stuffing.

Seafoid,
Yes, BKIR will be trading on a. p/e long before the end of the decade. Wilbur target exit price is rumoured to be 45p implying 4p of EPS sometime by 2016-18. Remember Wilbur made his bones buying distressed assets in the steel industry in the US. While not a deity, he is smarter than all the assembled brain power on this blog.

Now when the Germans are forced to restructure all Peripheral EZ debt post the election this trade will be money good. This will give Francis apoplexy in his bunker in Dresden but that is a price I am willing to pay for the good of humanity.

Seafoid,
You are begging to sound like an actuary. Knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing.

Wilburs success will be predicated on restructuring of EZ debt easing the way for a resumption of growth. Less interest paid to Ze Germans means more cash to be spent on BMWs. It is going to happen or the EUrope will be destroyed for a third time in a century.

@ Tull
You equate smartness with ability to make money. Fair enough. They’re not necessarily the same thing though.
But if that’s how you measure people’s smartness that’s up to you

Eureka,
I equate smartness with being correct on a subject, Wilbur is likely to have made a correct decision in buying BKIR at 10c

Keep an eye on them Pat. More to come …

@ Sporthog

Indeed! It is the one consolation that those forced to emigrate have. Many will, nevertheless, remit earnings to relatives.

Dan O’Brien has a very interesting article in today’s IT which belongs on this thread.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/social-partnership-a-danger-in-politically-flawed-ireland-1.1509912

He has the courage to state what is obvious but not PC.

“A large workless underclass now exists and there is limited political will and less money to help and propel people out of that condition.”

He is also right IMHO on all other counts.

@ Sporthog

On the debt issue, there was another interesting contribution in the IT.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/national-priority-should-still-be-paying-off-our-debt-as-quickly-as-possible-1.1509975

“Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow” could be considered for the national coat of arms.

The indigestible sums are in social spending (including unfunded pension commitments), health and education. It will be interesting to see what a shaky and inherently contradictory coalition makes of them in the next budget.

Of course, Tull may be right and Germany may be forced to write down debt burdens considered – at least by the IMF – to be intolerable. However, I doubt it.

http://www.esm.europa.eu/press/releases/esm-to-start-issuing-long-term-bonds-in-october.htm

“Of course, Tull may be right and Germany may be forced to write down debt burdens considered – at least by the IMF – to be intolerable. However, I doubt it.”

It’s unusual to see Tull do the hopey changey stuff. But it is presumably backed up by sound data.

@ Tull

Are you serious in making these comparisons?

Courtesy Open Europe, this;

“Writing in Die Welt, chief correspondent Michael Stürmer argues that “While all eyes are on Washington, New York, Moscow, and on Damascus, Ankara, Cairo and Jerusalem, awkward silence reigns in Brussels…In the corridors of powerlessness in Brussels you can sense frustration and little momentum.”

It is a corridor down which the EU has been pretending to go but it is no more than that; a pretence.

Suzanne Lynch, again in the IT, sums up the charade that is the EU’s supposed foray into a common foreign and security policy.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/syria-conflict-raises-thorny-issue-of-eu-foreign-policy-1.1508561

Or maybe we could leave it to the inimitable Matt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

The Germans are not even at the races!

Good news from NY on Labor Day weekend.

“This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: August 30, 2013
In an earlier version of this article, Enda Kenny, the prime minister of Ireland, was described incorrectly. He is a man.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/31/arts/seamus-heaney-acclaimed-irish-poet-dies-at-74.html?hp&_r=0

@ DOCM

re Dan O’Brien’s comment:

‘“A large workless underclass now exists and there is limited political will and less money to help and propel people out of that condition.”

True, but the people at the bottom are part of a much bigger problem. For obvious and not so obvious reasons, they can know little, or do less, in most cases, about the systemic factors which limit their life chances. The Pearse St area is a couple of hundred yards from Grafton St but it might as well be a thousand miles for all the contact that there is. Pierre Bourdieu has a lot to say about the way in which we all ‘agree’ to maintain safe social distance. Until we don’t or can’t.

The emigration figures include many thousands who do not see themselves, and cannot reasonably be categorized, as part of any sort of ‘underclass’. We can’t even provide employment for highly qualified people with good work records at present. They must have a better sense of what is being denied to them, and who is responsible. Lets hope they don’t all pack up and go.

It’s not just our party political institutions which have failed. The business and professional classes have been inglorious to put it mildly. Even O’Brien’s ‘thoughtful’ IT rode the bubble and is currently taxing its readers to pay off a disastrous foray into online property marketing. The lack of accountability at any level is remarkable.

As for the banks………… if that is the sort of ‘free market’ which Dan is recommending as a cure for ‘social partnership’, nuff said. The SW budget may be bloated, but at least we still have a modicum of peace in society. I suppose that is partnership, Irish style.

@ Tull

It sounds as though Wilbur’s payday still depends on the “kindness of strangers”.

@ DOCM,

Re : Remittances………….. indeed good point.

Your link to Dan O’Brien’s article……..it makes some good points, but from my perspective.. it contradicts itself. For example…

“Ireland had the second-highest rate of workless households out of 31 European countries. ”

What does this mean…….. how can a household remain workless in a modern day society with all it’s various expenses?

What I understand from that statement is that Social Welfare payments are TOO generous.

It is known that since 2001 to the present, Social welfare spending increased by 266% approx… yet the cost of living increased by 33% approx.

This is what I don’t understand… here is the crux. How can workless households claim that they are on the margins, shunned, ignored, thrown on the scrap heap etc…. if they can continue to survive on welfare payments?

These so called “maginalised groups” must have been looked after somewhere, somehow. In other words… there must have been somebody on the inside, lobbying for better handouts when budgets where being discussed.

Perhaps what Mr Dan O’Brien is really saying… is that by buying off, throwing money at the so called marginalised… Govt policy has actually made the their situation worse?

Mr O’Brien quotes a Mr Paul Tansey “He wrote the following in 1998 “for the long-term unemployed, counselling, advice and the fashioning of individual pathways back to education, training and the workforce offer the best, and perhaps the last, hope of preventing the emergence of a permanent underclass””

Yet approximately 10 years later…. the unemployment rate had dropped to approx 4%. It is not possible for any nation to have 0% unemployment rate. There will always be a small percentage of people who for various reasons are unemployable.

I remember Ms Mary Harney stating this in the Dail in the early noughties.

However Mr O’Brien does make a interesting thrust … Ireland should be looking at what has successfully worked in other jurisdictions. Instead of trying to implement home grown internal unworkable fantasies with the purpose of either buying off votes or feathering one’s own nest.

I would make just one suggestion as activation measures for unemployed…

1) A tourist police…. this would help reduce crime in tourist areas, promote leadership skills, assist in tourism generation, reduce crime rates, reduce Garda overtime in solving cases, improve Ireland’s image as a tourist destination, increase a sense of civic responsibility, promote a culture of self worth.

A bit like the PINKIES in Dublin Airport, they don’t earn mega bucks, wear a ridiculous colour of shirt… but carry out a very important and worthwhile function.

I’m not surprised at the quote…

“A large workless underclass now exists and there is limited political will and less money to help and propel people out of that condition.”

Irish Politicians were never in a position to offer anything…. except buying off various groups. However don’t forget… Necessity is the Mother of Invention, Mr Oliver Williams was interviewed recently about Twist Soup Kitchens……a good example of a man motivated by necessity rather than sitting back and blaming others.

Oh by the way… your link to IT article by Peter Cross… an excellent hard hitting article.

Unfortunately falling on deaf ears, perhaps Brussels will dissolve the Irish Parliament and make Ireland a “ward of court” to be managed from afar… a bit like N.I.?

@ Sporthog

Relative to what the country can afford, the level of benefits is clearly too high. But it does not follow that they are “too generous”. Every sector views the treatment of others as too generous. This is unavoidable when the method of decision-making is based on a clientilist political system where the decisive consideration is not the objective justification for a particular expenditure on the basis of an open discussion of the costs and benefits but the electoral impact on those doing the deciding. Being workless does not mean being vote-less!

There is clearly no political stomach for change either on the part of the electorate or those being elected. What is different is that the cabinet is now faced with a balance-sheet of unpalatable options. These have yet to see the light of day, apart from the various kites being flown by ministers trying to protect their patch of which one can be certain there will be a further supply in tomorrow’ press.

This is not the first time the country has faced this situation. But it is the first time that it has been facing such a budgetary black hole (including the drag of debt interest payments) in circumstances where, as a member of a monetary union, it is subject to bailout conditions preventing the adoption of the usual soft options.

@Paul Quigley

You are right when you say the emigrants are by and large not an underclass.
Most developed countries are awash in unskilled labour and have placed restrictions on whom they will admit. Unskilled labour if admitted are under a class referred to as foreign temporary workers and given permits sponsored by an employer for 90 days to not more than two years or so. Engineers, graduate IT workers and a few others in the “professional” class are admitted without restrictions and eligible for citizenship in 3 years. The competition for skilled workers has driven down the citizenship residency requirement from 10 years in places like Germany to 3 years in most prosperous countries.

Some Irish did not avail themselves and their children of this opportunity when they returned during the boom.

Ireland has a history of the majority having an attitude of “I’m alright Paddy, let the devil take the hindmost.”. As my mother used to say “Social Partnership my derriere, the lumpen proletariat were put on earth to be exploited by their betters.” The downturn has exacerbated this self defeating behaviour and it is likely things will get worse before they start to improve. The stoic placidity of the Irish underprivileged has kept FF and FG in power for over half a century. That is not likely to change dramatically in the near future. We need more Stakhanovs and fewer oligarchs.

@MH,

Do you think that will be the final outcome for Ireland?

A basket case… with very choppy waters… social unrest… the elites in retreat…and eventually Ireland leaving the eurozone to re schedule it’s debt?

Possibly… but not certain.

I think Ireland has some way to go… the establishment will continue to cut services.. introduce more levies, apply more VAT on the Levies… roll the temporary levies into permanent levies.. then combine the levies into the USC, then reintroduce the levies again.

It’s just theft… plain and simple theft.

Remember the Health Levy Ms Harney introduced… the 1% health levy..it was increased.. then rolled into the USC… and I will not be surprised if it is reintroduced under a new name.

The PSO levy on electricity…going up 54% on Oct 1st to 42.87 euro / year… oh and don’t forget the VAT… 13.5%…. rounding up to 48.66 euro / year, needless to say it will be increased again next year.

I’m sure the broadcasting charge will be going the same way.

It appears to be the only form of originality our political class is capable of … levies… vat on levies… increase levies…. introduce more levies…

@ BWS

It is more a hope rather than an expectation on my part that our financially straitened circumstances, or rather the associated need to behave in a more responsible manner at the dictation of our creditors, will bring about a change in political culture. But the omens are not that bad. Apart from the greatly tightened budgetary procedures in a EZ context, there is also the role being played by the IMF.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13258.htm

I do not think that much attention is any longer being paid to the usual domestic suspects in the run-up to what will be a watershed budget, not so much in terms of content but approach.

Rather more attention is probably directed at the bodies raising funds on our behalf cf link to press release by ESM above.

“Alongside the ESM, the EFSF will remain very active in the long-term bond market in order to finance the ongoing programmes for Portugal, Ireland and Greece. This will continue beyond the end of these programmes as the existing EFSF bonds will have to be rolled over. Therefore, the ESM and EFSF, managed by the same team from Luxembourg, will both be active in the debt markets for the years to come.”

@ MH,

Good points about Mr Glenn Stevens…. and the Dual Work- education system is another point.

About Elan… I sometimes wonder what does happen to all the innovation which comes out of 3rd level.

Do you think Ireland is missing the support steps between Invention… Innovation and final product in the market place?

There are clever people in Ireland some of whom have excellent ideas but are unable to get the invention / discovery to the market.

I sometimes wonder if there was a “One stop Support Shop” for these people to go to and assist with all market research + the bureaucracy in getting a product to market.

@ DOCM,

Yep… she is starting to dig in, circle the wagons and batten down the hatches.

@ All,

Prof Richard Tol has a most apt piece in today’s SBP

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Comment/Opinion/The+government+is+still+in+denial+over+welfare+traps/id/02a626c7-a355-46a1-a264-cf02e360ddbd

Govt still in denial over welfare traps.

Asking the question…. is Ms Burton any different to Mr Cowen?

Insightful last paragraph…

“The government has been making haste slowly. Last week’s events show that parts of the government are still keener on denying problems than confronting them.”

It would appear that the ignorance + denial which got Ireland into the mess… is not helping to get Ireland out of the mess.

@ All

It may be worth noting that Ireland is not unique when it comes to the political difficulties associated with regaining control of public finances. Portugal, by way of example, has recently seen a decision by its supreme court that public servants cannot be fired!

This will not make the task for the Portuguese government any easier. However, as these slides associated with an advisory presentation in relation to the role of fiscal councils by Swedish experts illustrate unequivocally, it is a matter for political – not expert – decision.

http://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/OBancoeoEurosistema/Eventos/Documents/LJonung_slides.pdf

In Ireland’s case, it is not even possible to argue that the government is putting the cart (fiscal council advisory role) before the horse (fiscal framework), as there is no horse (or even recognition – by politicians or the electorate – that one is required).

@ All

This is the associated paper. (Some charts are missing but are included in the slide presentation).

http://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/OBancoeoEurosistema/Eventos/Documents/LJonung_paper.pdf

The small number of departments and staff involved will be noted. A comparison with Ireland would reveal an ill-thought structure the outcome of a political coalition compromise rather than anything else. Were it not for the constitutional limitation on the number of ministers, the structure would be even worse.

Effectively I, and some others on this blog, are asserting that a continuation of a significant proportion of state expenditure on salaries, welfare, pensions, etc., using ‘borrowed money’ is a really bad idea and has to be reined in.

Saying this is fine, but attempting to put it into practice is also a bad idea. You first have to halt the forward momentum of a very large mass before you can attempt to put it into reverse. Then you have a hard grind toward the position where state revenues = state expenditures.

Unless the principle of this thing (long-term fiscal stability) is understood and agreed, nothing will occur except increasingly futile efforts to preserve what we call our ‘status quo. How far are we from the ‘moment of truth’ – I wonder? Will we (ever) exit the Mushroom Policy era?

As a somewhat ‘interesting’ mental exercise: assume all welfare benefits were abolished and all public service salaries and pensions were ‘capped’ at some low multiple of a Living Wage. All tax ‘incentive’ thingys would also have to go. Now work your way forward. Where will you halt? Explain why? And what does the term ‘full employment’, actually mean? – in the Irish context.

@ MH,

Most interesting…. “European Paradox”…. another example…I believe MP3 was a European design…. successfully exploited by various companies in the USA.

O’Connor in the Sindo mentions “political revolution”. I see anything but a “political revolution”, I see a population paralysed in the dazzler waiting to be shaken to death by a Greyhound. To understand Ireland you have to understand the concept of “giving it up” suffering is something you “give up” in this life to be paid back in benefits in the afterlife. There is also the factor of abject poverty being widespread into the 1960s’. If your leather belt broke you could always make a new one from sugawn rope.

Ireland will continue to fumble and bumble forward for the simple reason that our long and sorry past has made us deathly fearful of change. The Sindo poll shows that even sheep can be better organised and show more initiative than we Irish exhibit in a political sense.

I am sure some philosopher must have covered the ground of the underprivileged having the least to lose are most fearful of losing it.

@ Homer: “The left should stick to the social arguments, which certainly have merit, but they should stay well clear of the economics …”

The Right have to put forward their social arguments – its their country also. What do they ‘want’? A state populated by a minority of ‘wealthy’ – who pay minimal levels of tax and a majority who range from the ‘comfortable’ to the impoverished: the latter pay tax through their expenditures on their necessaries, the former paying tax at 60% on the margin? And welfare at a bare subsistence? What?

We need to pose these inconvenient questions – and demand meaningful answers. Is that possible?

@ MH: Are we that stupid? That dumb? That dis-interested?

@Sporthog
The problem of confining social supports to those who actually need it as opposed to those who want it and are prepared to vote for it is a world wide problem. In one well governed country I knew a well educated woman with in demand skills who worked for a pharmaceutical research company. Her conditions of employment as dictated to her employer were that she be laid off from July 1st to the second week of September every year. She drew unemployment during her period of “unemployment”. That is when it dawned on me that she was not alone and that unemployment benefits were designed for the well paid middle class and not the deserving people I usually associated with recurring unemployment.

The support for social benefits goes beyond those receiving it directly to include most small businesses, professionals, politicians and many others.

When we leave the Troika teat the weaning will begin. I am a firm believer that transfer payments to individuals should be confined to those under 16 to 18 (pick one) and those over 65 to 70. Then there are the people who are partially or fully mentally or physically handicapped who cannot be put out to starve and have to be fully or partially supported.

Things will get worse and at some point, hopefully short of total collapse the country will come to its senses. But then again “reality is for those who cannot face up to alcohol”.

The Troika has delayed and made the day of reckoning far worse than if they had not intervened. The whole mess could have been dumped on Brussels and Frankfurt in 2008.

@Mikey Hickey
“If your leather belt broke you could always make a new one from sugawn rope.”

I remember from the sixties when some people wore the ‘Indian bag’ as an old overcoat.

Still I was at wedding last weekend, seated at a table of eight, all under 60. I was the only employed person.
There was one one pensioner with a handsome pension from a a plc. The other six people were all fully paid ‘pensioners’ from the PS, pensionati perhaps!
Part of the ‘unlaboured’ labour market. I wonder how they are counted in the stats.
Big Jim would surely be surprised at the opulence of a State that can afford it. He would be be more surprised that his heritage has been abrogated by the representatives for such opulence.
Its not over by a long shot.

BW,
We should start with cutting the the pensions of superannuated PS pensioners especially in the tertiary sector. Then move on to former Senior PS. A little birdie told me that a super annuated SG of a govt dept, long retired and on a large multiple of his final salary objected vigorously to any reduction in his T&Cs

@Joseph Ryan
I assume you are referring to the used Jute-Sisal sacks used for 8 stone bags of spuds.

There was a market for the cotton flour bags used for 8 stone bags of flour. Rumour had it that they were shipped to Limerick where they were bleached and made into bathing suits. There were people in Ballybunion who swore that they could make out the Ranks logo (blue) which had not been fully bleached out.

@Sporthog
Every country handles poverty differently. In Ireland it used to be taken care of by extended families and the Church. The Church has been seriously weakened and extended families in the age of 2.1 birthrates are no longer the bulwark that they used to be.

In Spain and Italy the family is expected to pull together. The ex communist countries have moved from the collective mindset to one step removed from barbarism on advice received from Americans. The pendulum will swing back in time.

The problem faced by most countries is not shortage of supply but shortage of demand. I expect the Irish Gov’t mindset is to stimulate demand and there is no better way than by giving to the poor who spend it all less than 5 km from home on goods largely produced domestically (staples). The virtuous cycle as it was called in previous recessions. Spend your way to prosperity. It has helped so far but the medium term outlook is uncertain.

@ BWS

Note how the Left argument has moved on from Larkin’s days. Then it was a question of injustice and inequality – a successful economy was not worth the price of unjust inequality.

These days even the Left accepts that the success of the economy is paramount, its distribution secondary. That’s why they seize at Keynesian style arguments to support patent fallacies like the more you spend on SW the better for the economy.

@ Mickey Hickey,

Good points you raise… however I am not certain about your last one…

“on goods largely produced domestically (staples)”

If that was the case.. then I believe your argument would be much stronger.

However there are lots of things in a shop which are not produced in Ireland, even foodstuffs, remember the horse meat scandal… food is being transported like a spiders web all over Europe. What was labeled as Irish was not Irish at all.

For example… Irish Honey… it not Irish at all…. most honey comes from areas of Germany.

If one looks at the efficiency of the taxation system.. lets take 100e off a wealthy person… how much of it actually gets transferred into the hand of a poorer person? Because there is a cost involved in collecting taxes… and there is a cost involved in dispensing benefits. Both Revenue and S.W. depts have costs in just doing their job, the lighting in the offices, the toner for the printer, stacks of manilla envelopes, insurance, the cleaning of public offices, repairs to photocopiers etc etc etc

I am just surmising…. but it is possible that for every 100e taken off a rich person, perhaps only 80e gets into the hands of a poorer person who is dependent on SW, it could be higher or lower… but it would never be equal to 100% of the original amount. So for argument purposes.. lets pretend its 80%.

Of the 80e gets spent locally… some of it will be returned again to Revenue as VAT, some will go to the shop owner, some will go to the transportation company which delivered the goods, and of course.. some money must go back to the manufacturer of the product.

This is where the rub comes in…. for those products which are not made in Ireland… for example Nappie’s for babies( and you may not have known this astonishing fact)…. Comfies are the only Irish made Nappies, well at least according to their website http://www.comfies.ie/.

Therefore when SW payments are spent on other brands of Nappy… it’s money which is actually leaving Ireland, it does not stay in the local economy. In fact we are supporting another economy elsewhere.

If SW benefits were dispensed with the caveat… that it could only be spent on products actually made in Ireland… then perhaps I could believe Ms Burton more. But I can’t see it working, perhaps not even legally.

And what about products which are not made at all in Ireland, i.e. cigarettes etc? Does it mean they cannot be bought with SW money… not really workable, or alcohol which is only made in Ireland… again not workable.

To be honest with you… it’s hard to know what is actually 100% home grown Irish (apart from certain foodstuffs) with all the skullduggery going on in industry… It’s all “smokes and mirrors” as de Bert said.

As Richard Tol mentioned… at the very least require something to be done about Welfare Traps… a gradual tapering of benefits should be introduced to ease people back into the workplace. The current situation is unfair to dependents, employers and taxpayers and requires a bit of “tweaking”.

@ JG,

So it is workable then!!! Good news when good news is needed. But are they listening? Is there anybody in charge who is listening? Or are we wasting our time?

@Sporthog,none off the welfare programs stateside for the work shy are considered “successful” but ehm that’s the point,they not really supposed to work,the people on them are!

@ All

The problem with looking at aspects of the problem of being broke is that it never leads to a viable solution. Indeed, I venture to suggest that it hinders rather than helps. The TOTAL budgetary picture has to be considered, as MABS might put it to a family in difficulty.

https://www.mabs.ie/

The most instructive comparison internationally is with that of Sweden in the 90s following a major banking bust. The extract below from the document I linked to above illustrates the radical nature of the reform and the time that it took. It consisted essentially of parliament deciding an overall budgetary envelope and setting up mechanisms which ensured that expenditure stayed within in. Irish politicians, other than the few ministers who get sight of the budget documents, know little or nothing about the state of the government’s finances because they are NOT consulted, although the Dáil has constitutional responsibility for raising taxes and deciding expenditure. (If the Senate is abolished, despite the fact that it has no role in relation to so-called money bills, this anomalous situation will become even more glaring. Indeed, the strongest argument to my mind for abolishing the Senate is the manner in which it will put into unavoidable public view the lack of oversight and control by parliament of the executive).

Extract

“3.2. The emergence of the fiscal framework

The crisis caused a sharp rise in the budget deficit and in government debt (Chart 8 and Chart 5). The huge emerging deficits became an embarrassment to the center-right government in power during the financial crisis of 1992-93. Fiscal consolidation became a top priority on the
political agenda of the social democratic government that came into power after the election in the fall of 1994. It built a reputation of being a competent and careful manager of government finances when in power during 1994-2006. A major goal during this period was to reduce the budget deficit and lower the government debt to national income ratio. Here the government was successful as seen from Chart 85 and Chart 58.
Eventually, as a lagged response to the crisis, a fiscal framework was constructed in a rather lengthy political and administrative process. Actually, this process still continues. A first step was a report published in 1992 by ESO, a think-tank of the Ministry of Finance. This report, put together by non-political experts and civil servants, recommended a top-down approach in the Parliament for the government budget, a stronger position for the Prime Minister’s office and the Ministry of Finance in the internal budgetary process and full coverage for the financing of government expenditures. The report was inspired by a study by Jürgen von Hagen demonstrating that the Swedish budgetary process was one of the weakest in the EU, next to that of Italy.

The ESO report contributed to a parliamentary reform in 1994 encompassing a top-down approach where the Parliament first decides the total volume of expenditures and then the distribution of expenditures across 27 specific expenditure areas. The calendar year became the basis for the budget. From January 1997 an extended fiscal framework was put in place, including a central government expenditure ceiling designed to cover three years ahead, a budget margin serving as a buffer between the expenditure ceiling and the expenditure appropriations, all decided by the parliament, abolition of open-ended appropriations and monthly auditing of government expenditures relative to budget decisions.

In 1998, a surplus target for general government net lending was introduced to be implemented from 2000. Public finances are required to show a surplus of 1 per cent over the course of a business cycle for the whole public sector. The surplus target is commonly viewed as a buffer for economic fluctuations and demographic changes. In 1999 a balanced budget
requirement for local governments was made into law to be implemented from 2000.”

@ eamonn moran

The issue of what constitutes equitable distribution of public expenditure, and the tax levels to fund it, cannot be decided to the reasonable satisfaction of all largely because of the current fog surrounding the budgetary procedure, which Irish politicians have every interest in ensuring does not dissipate.

The only light visible is that of the budgetary consolidation targets set by the country’s creditors.

@Sportshog,

From my non-economist, layperson’s perspective, the problem with Burton’s argument is that it is based on two fundamentally flawed assumptions.

The first is the ‘one person economy’ assumption – that all members of a particular class of consumer dispose of their income in the same way simply because their income in insufficient to permit savings or discretionary expenditures. The simplistic premise of the Minister’s argument is not only do they spend all of it, but they do so locally and thus keep local shopkeepers and businesses tills ringing and their doors open for business etc. No evidence is produced to support this contention, though statistics for the number of SME retail outlets that have either gone out of business, or let employees go, might be a reasonable place to start looking as well as a closer examination of the factors which you cite above with regard to levels of expenditure of the ‘average weekly shop’ on imported goods? As for what constitutes ‘local’, in the modern globalised economy, the threads of which are woven even through the most ostensibly isolated area of production I would have thought it is, as you say, very hard to define what ‘locally produced’ even means anymore.

Thus the logic of the Minister’s argument is that if you increase all social welfare payments up to a threshold whereby this ‘one person economy’ model suggests they will still spend all their income, then that amounts to a major economic stimulus. This is so patently absurd it does not merit discussion.

The second flawed assumption arises from apparent confusion about the purpose of SW policy and payments, which, as I understand it, have absolutely nothing to do with providing economic stimulus for SMEs for which other mechanisms exist within taxation/employment policy areas.

Either the Minister believes her assumptions are correct or the issue is being framed in this way for other reasons: (a) because nobody could be so mean-spirited as to challenge its assumptions (and expect to get away with it without being run out of town) or perhaps, more benignly, (b) because badly needed reform of the SW system is too complex and difficult a message to frame or to sell in the current political and budgetary context.

I didn’t see yesterday’s SBP, unfortunately, though I expect Richard Tol’s article would be helpful towards understanding what the reform issues are.

By the way, the Bertieism was “smoke and daggers”!

@ DOCM

“The only light visible is that of the budgetary consolidation targets set by the country’s creditors.”

Deep in the grounds of a burnt-out hotel,
Among the bathtubs and the washbasins
A thousand mushrooms crowd to a keyhole.
This is the one star in their firmament
Or frames a star within a star.
What should they do there but desire?

http://www.poetryinternationalweb.net/pi/site/poem/item/9297

and you didn’t mention growth either

@ Sporthog

The markets may have other fires to put out. Plus, could it be that the bond vigilantes are doped out on QE ?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/08/30/1615642/the-options-for-emerging-markets-and-reasons-for-long-term-optimism/?

The UK is still on a shaky scraw

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/boe-ready-to-loosen-if-market-rates-hurt-economy-HOA0jpaWQZ~RfbeHeHl9Xw.html

@ Mickey Hickey

Ireland is full of ‘secrets’ and the more we try to hide them the more they haunt us.

I wonder, in your experience, if any of the children of those families to whom you delivered groceries ever upped and disappeared? Back in the ‘fifties, as we all now know, there were people who were ‘paid’ a sort of bounty on the basis of the number of children whom they delivered to industrial schools and care homes and the like. I know of women, who had fled disastrous marriages, for instance, or had effectively been abandoned by husbands who went to England to work but were never heard of again, who lived in terror that they might be singled out for attention and, on some spurious basis, might lose their children. It happened.

Of course, tolerating that sort of thing in our midst is unthinkable in our transformed circumstances of the 21st century. One wonders what the equivalent horrors may be?

‘Sciolist’ is such a great word.

Forgive me… I spent the day listening to Spanish policians talking about unemployment, growth and job creation. They (most politicians) haven’t got a bloody clue have they? They are either detached from reality or are just ignoring it.

Next week I’ll be in England, trying to make annuities sound like a really great thing to put your money into. Silk purses…..

@ seafóid

Or maybe Peer Steinbrueck?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64216ff0-133b-11e3-a05e-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2diiiZHfO

@ veronica

The first is the ‘one person economy’ assumption – that all members of a particular class of consumer dispose of their income in the same way simply because their income in insufficient to permit savings or discretionary expenditures. The simplistic premise of the Minister’s argument is not only do they spend all of it, but they do so locally and thus keep local shopkeepers and businesses tills ringing and their doors open for business etc. No evidence is produced to support this contention

“No evidence”, really? As a proposition it passes both the common sense test and as an academic exercise (see Krugman and innumerable other economists who would laugh at you).

You’re allowing your Burton fixation to get the better of you in this.

@ sporthog

Therefore when SW payments are spent on other brands of Nappy… it’s money which is actually leaving Ireland, it does not stay in the local economy.

Err, nope. You’re attempting to strawman here. No-one has claimed anything about ‘made in Ireland’, we’re talking about local jobs in selling, shipping, and all the other ancillary trades which get sucked in like painters for the store and what have you.

On the other hand, you might want to consider the following exercise. That e100 in the pocket of a wealthy person goes towards one bag of nappies, and the rest goes into a bank account, towards buying a yacht etc. That e100 in the pockets of lesser-off beings gets spent on multiple bags of nappies, and the remainder gets spent locally rather than being squirelled away or going towards luxury items – producing your boost for everyone.

@EWI only 5% off Mickey D’s associates are on min wage !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/fast-food-strike-s-minimum-sense.html

@the well-heeled reactionaries

Labor Economics 101: Few Jobs Means Bad Jobs

Everyone knows the story about the two old men in a retirement home. The first one complains that, “the food here is poison.” His friend agrees with him then adds, “and the portions are so small.”

[author] did a very crude test of this story. I regressed the rise in the share of hotel and restuarant employment from 2007 to the first half of 2013, across states, against their unemployment rate in July of 2013. Here’s the picture. [,,,]
While far from conclusive, this looks like pretty good support for the bad labor markets lead to bad jobs story. (For regression fans, the coefficient of the unemployment rate variable was 0.0013 with a t-statistic of 4.65, which is significant at the 1 percent level.) There are of course other reasons than the lack of good jobs that could cause the share of restaurant employment to grow more in states with high unemployment.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/labor-economics-101-few-jobs-means-bad-jobs

Of course, Ireland is not the US! Merely a subset …!!

@ All

FYI

The full text of Minister Burton’s speech.

http://www.joanburton.ie/speeches/beyond-austerity-building-a-strong-economy-and-a-fair-society-from-the-middle-out

All we need now is the money!

@ sporthog

So, the future is in us plebs scrubbing the yachts of the rich? Good to know.

And a gentle reminder that we have a progressive tax system here (in theory), so our hypothetical rich person is paying a greater share to match their greater disposable income.

@David O’Donnell

There has been a trend in the USA since 2007 to reduce the hours of work weekly to eliminate the necessity for employers to pay their share of s deductions. To get a true picture you would need to know total hours worked which may not have changed. The USA is the new frontier of zero benefit, reduced work week, disposable employees. A’int freedom grand.

@MH google ObamaCare get back to me..
I find it patronizing and insulting to the hard working people who get up and do work,that the loony left now think …oh those jobs not “good” enough while safely tenured and ensconced in ivory towers,courtesy off same taxpayer.
PK….on “labour”….
“But obviously that’s not the way everyone sees it. In particular, there are evidently a lot of wealthy people in America who consider anyone who isn’t wealthy a loser — an attitude that has clearly gotten stronger as the gap between the 1 percent and everyone else has widened. And such people have a lot of friends in Washington.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/opinion/krugman-love-for-labor-lost.html?ref=paulkrugman&_r=0

@ JG

“hard working people…loony left .. ivory towers”

had me in tears. But a lot of those new jobs have a lot less in terms of benefits than the jobs the previous generation had. And you can argue that this is more “efficient”, whatever that means, but one of the main trends since the 70s has been the passing of risk from the employer to the employee.

One example is pension investing and the move to 401ks.
Costing a lot of those benefits the net result has been a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich.
In the US 30% of consumer spending is driven by the top 5% of the food chain. 70% of GDP is consumption. You won’t get that economic recovery from the Hamptons.

I saw a Harpers Index snippet about Russia recently. A Majority of Russians do not believe that “if you work hard you’ll be rewarded”
Is the US going the same way ?

@MH

Agreed on JB. Further, being left to do the ‘vision thing’ on one’s own is a tough ask, particularly in a party that on the basis of current tracking opinion polls is heading for electoral meltdown.

Came across a paper recently which contains some useful insights as to why the expectations of some elites – academic, economic, scientific – of the political elite are often hopelessy unrealistic; including the following:

“Stepping forward to represent one’s
fellow citizens constitutes a claim to
understand and serve their best interests—
the good of society. This claim
must be vindicated and re-vindicated
under the eyes and subject to the changing
interpretations of all, as filtered by the
vagaries of media coverage, until such
time as representation ceases. It must be
sustained, especially and above all, in the
face of a stream of events which are
entirely unpredictable and intractable,
and which press the ‘good of society’
into unceasing metamorphosis. Finally, it
must be tested against the claims of others
who indefatigably seek one’s place. The
existential reality of politics is not power,
it is the ever-present prospect, under the
vicissitudes of competition, publicity and
uncertainty, of its loss.” [French (2012) Political Quarterly Vol 83(3):534]

@BW snr “Why do we ‘need’ to work anyway? Define work.”
Fools rush in and all that.

It seems to me that anywhere that a bunch of people is gathered, they will attempt to use the available resources to jointly improve their environment; that is what a community is about. Different values will lead to different outcomes: Hitler did not emulate Ghandi, but there is the similar drive to improve.

It became work when the reward was money from another in exchange for improving the environment to their terms.
If a social worker organises self-help classes, that is work: if a volunteer does the same, it is volunteering. They are both improving the environment but the payment of money for services defines what is work.
It also defines the volunteer as someone who is not paid. But working for free is a material distinction: the real difference is in the values. You cannot buy values.

Money is just a symbol way of comparing resources in order to use them more efficiently. For instance to put them aside by saving or to bring them forward by investing.
We are now in a situation where the resources that are defined in monetary terms for changing the environment, whether economically or socially, are very, very limited. ‘Eating credit’ is not an option.

The resources are still there; it is a question of finding ways to bring them into play. That is likely to mean a change in values. Values do change. As MH says pre-industrial revolution religion was a useful social control: but the values changed.
Politics in the broad sense is making the tools according to particular values and asking/using economists to interpret what is happening!

@ Conor: Thank you also. Thoughtful, again! Appreciated.

Now if you can excuse me – I need to ‘go to work’! ‘She Who Must be Obeyed’ has directed me to apply some paint to some nearby woodwork!

My reward is a negative one; I shall not be ‘beaten’ – again! Funny that. One can get used to being ‘beaten’ – and you even get to like it! “Ah!, well! – that’s work for ye!”.

Thanks again, to all here who provide me with enlightenment.

@ JG

Detroit and the Ruhr Valley were both hit hard by the convulsions of the 1970s.
One of them had a heroin epidemic and other didn’t.

@seafoid,many reasons for Detroit’s BK,smack is not one them,the failure of the education system there and in other parts the US is.
In other news where “rich” people now live and build houses with non union labor,having fled Detroit…

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2013/09/01/fashion/20130901-CALVIN-8.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/01/fashion/the-house-that-calvin-klein-built.html

@Tull,

SF’s commitment to the socialist economic policies has always been skin-deep; more a cover for their irredentist nationalism than a position that had been genuinely thought-through. Various commentators have long anticipated that SF would begin to move towards the centre in respect of economic and taxation policies. They need to broaden their political base. Meantime, the centre, as a political space, begins to look a bit overcrowded.

Paging Gregory Connor

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/aib-says-strategic-defaulters-account-for-4-of-mortgages-1.1513953

AIB chief executive David Duffy has told the Oireachtas Finance Committee that strategic defaulters represent around 4 per cent of its overall mortgage book.
He said a quarter of all buy-to-let mortgages have not made any repayments in the last six months, and Mr Duffy added that some were diverting rental income.

@ seafóid

I see from your link that it is the Finance Committee.

This from the associated comments;

“GregoryConnor

4% of all mortgages is 4%/12%= 33.3% of all mortgages in serious arrears are strategic arrears and 66.7% are distressed arrears. So basically the same as my rough estimate 10 months ago.
4 Hours Ago.”

@seafoid,that idea already won a ‘darwin’ award for stupi….so like say spread the failure to govern around….bit like the BTL mess in irl 🙂

“Detroit is defined as the larger metro area that includes its suburbs, it has enough money to provide all its residents with adequate if not good public services, without falling into bankruptcy. It would come down to a question of whether the more affluent areas of this Detroit were willing to subsidize the poor inner city through their tax dollars and help it rebound. That’s an awkward question that the more affluent areas would probably rather not have to face.”
http://www.freep.com/article/20130803/OPINION05/308030014/robert-reich-detroit-bankruptcy-middle-class-income-gap

“In a nutshell, Reich wants to make things right in Detroit by expanding its boundaries. Or does he want to expand the burbs’ boundaries to encompass Detroit? Doesn’t matter, really. The key to Reich’s ingenious plan is for miserably failed Detroit to glom onto the burbs for resources — that would be money, in plain English.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/08/just_spread_detroits_failure_why_dont_ya.html

@ JG

The experience of Detroit is nothing new in the US approach to capitalism. It has zero relevance as far as wider issues affecting the international economy are concerned.

Wolfgang Munchau does not think so.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ae862c88-1161-11e3-a14c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2drNWhmjg

@DOD-Tutorial 1-you like to keep score,here save you the work…
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=20167

@DOD here in case link does not work…..5 would be like ehm less than half,oh well lets not let facts get in the way huh-need more links r u good now ?

“In 2012, the union membership rate—the percent of wage and salary workers who were members of a union—was 11.3 percent, down from 11.8 percent in 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf

In respect of ‘strategic defaulters’ a key statistic is the percentage of BTL mortgage holders who have not given a personal guarantee. Those mortgage holders have every incentive to withhold rent. I know one investor with several BTL properties who was not asked to give a personal guarantee on his – by now – severe negative equity houses and apartments. You can imagine what he is doing with the monthly rents. I’ve no idea if the non-seeking of personal guarantees was widespread but wouldn’t it be interesting if this statistic was available?

jG,
Seafood is a golf club cocktail party leftie. There should always be someone else who should be tapped to pay for your Dutch Gold and methadone lifestyle.

How sloppy of me – 5-7% of the private sector workforce. Keep up the good work – never know – you might eventually learn!

Now get us the private/public breakdown – deres a good lad! A useful id… er labor and time saving device.

@ Tull: “There should always be someone else who should be tapped to pay for your Dutch Gold and methadone lifestyle.”

If those critters had jobs and all, they could pay for their own ‘lifestyle’. What do those Masters of Wall Street sniff: Bollinger and Coke – as in aine? No matter. Hoodies bad. Pinstripes good. Orwell would enjoy this.

And as for this slimy guff about ‘strategic defaulters’. There is always some critters who will not pay their bills, ever! So sue them, and shut the **** up!

The chief officers and directors of our financial institutions who lent into a bubble residential housing ‘market’ (together with the financial regulator, senior civil servants and government ministers)are individually and collectively responsible for the current financial mess. They were, allegedly, in charge of things. What part of the word No do they fail to grasp? They were/are simply incompetent oafs. Anyone have evidence to the contrary?

@ BWS

As has been commented on many times, stupidity is not a crime, either on the part of the lender or the borrower. Mortgages are advanced against the property as collateral and if the borrower cannot keep up the payments, something has to give. If it does not the entire system of mortgage finance will break down and the banks providing it with it.

To quote Wikipedia;

“A mortgage is a security interest in real property held by a lender as a security for a debt, usually a loan of money. A mortgage in itself is not a debt, it is the lender’s security for a debt. It is a transfer of an interest in land (or the equivalent) from the owner to the mortgage lender, on the condition that this interest will be returned to the owner when the terms of the mortgage have been satisfied or performed. In other words, the mortgage is a security for the loan that the lender makes to the borrower.”

It suits politicians to ignore the distinctions between this and other forms of lending because it also suits those who elect them to do so.

cf. the situation in Greece as reported by the FT.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/62819704-148c-11e3-b3db-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#ixzz2dta7rToD

Über-bear Albert Edwards gets a mention in the FT every so often. This note of his sounds very interesting. I wonder what the chances are of the crisis morphing to a stage beyond which CB string pushing works.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a98179ea-117f-11e3-8321-00144feabdc0.html

“Not invited to Jackson Hole was Albert Edwards, Société Générale’s famously bearish global strategist, who warned this week the crisis would not be confined to emerging market economies with yawning current account deficits. “I see this as the beginning of a process where the most wobbly domino falls and topples the whole, precarious, rotten, risk-loving edifice that our policy makers have built,” he wrote in a note”

@Brian Woods Snr,no pinstripes or coke these days,the feckers have introduced random drug testing,no longer just at the interview go figure…
It’s khakis,polo shirts and lashings off adderall,they like smarties here in NY.
During and after TARP,the bean counters clamped down on the bubbly too,it’s just not as much fun these days…..
Instead of first mover advantage,go for last mover status,cooperate a bit,throw a few bucks at it every now and then….the courts will be overwhelmed BTL foreclosure/repo should be non judicial….
http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=last_mover-advantage

Ryanair misses its profit guidance- cites ongoing austerity as one factor

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7e2e6352-1544-11e3-950a-00144feabdc0.html

Q4 might be a real mess on the markets.

@Brian Woods Snr,Hi Brian hope the garden is good this year, the uniform depends on a lot of things.The arrivistes and easter europeans do tend like to let you know who made their clothing….but most go or a more subtle/knowing look.
Augusta golf club has the flag in the green logo,the Maidstone Club in EH the whale,bit of Brioni adds a nice dash of color….etc.

There is a scam a day,those dastardly rakish bankers heavens above-this morning its SP whining that the yanks targeted them in revenge for a downgrade..no s**t sherlock !
Sure you would hardly get out bed if you listened to half it,I’m blessed with a sunny disposition and bright outlook…

“The Justice Department said that federally insured banks and credit unions bought debt deals rated highly by S&P because they thought such top-notch ratings indicated there was less risk than lower-rated securities. But behind the scenes, the government alleged, S&P was assigning high ratings to deals in order to please bankers and other clients. S&P has said such claims are “meritless.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324202304579053142604688438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Brian,on a more serious note i think AIB has bout 6,000 clients pleading the fifth,if you know anyone this is just about the worst thing one can do.
Engage,obfuscate,negotiate make a deal break it,pop by,write letters wear them out but DONT ignore them.
Hang around the hoop by making one payment say every 3 months or so,you never know wait long enough the ball may bounce your way,but do NOT ignore them.Decent yank paper on CPO’s compulsory purchase orders off read it..

@seafoid i hope i never end up in a foxhole with you……

@seafoid,trying get up speed on Philip’s link/paper regarding eminent domain/cpo’s ireland.
here is what most people in NY read every morning………a lot the other stuff is just noise:)
Looks like im gonna have a good day…

“Some kind of setback could throw you out of your stride today but overall things are very much in your favor at the moment so there is no need to panic. The recipe for happiness is simple: worry less, love more.”
http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/horoscope/gemini_KMiK0OYyhl6xrDXyDhwT0M

@Mickey Hickey,Hi Mickey I truly did not despite reading it every morning.I read it “backwards” in that the sports section is terrific,then my horoscope I kid you not and “page 6” the “terry keane” or gossip section.
It’s a Murdoch paper,competes here with the Daily News,it’s a great read.

The vacation alone thing is a bit odd,why Australia and Ireland ?
Any rational reason given for Ireland ranking so high on the list,assume Venice or Paris solo would be a bit much….

More from Pacific Standard, North Hollywood, Ca.
A little exaggeration, probably reflects US public opinion.

http://www.psmag.com/business-economics/burgh-disapora/ireland-dying-65407/#disqus_thread