Brexit seminar in UCD, Thurs 16 Feb, 9:30-11:00

You might be interested in a talk to be given by Hussein Kassim (UEA) on  ‘Brexit: destination still unknown?’ on Thursday 16 Feb, 9:30-11:00, in UCD Newman G316. Tea and will be coffee available from 9:00.
Information about getting to UCD is here, and information about parking on campus is here. All welcome.image001-2Please RSVP to Dara.Gannon@ucd.ie by 12:00 on Tuesday 14 February. This seminar is jointly organized by UCD School of Politics and International Relations, UCD College of Social Sciences and Law, and UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy.

5 thoughts on “Brexit seminar in UCD, Thurs 16 Feb, 9:30-11:00”

  1. I hope the seminar will be more balanced than media coverage. I voted to remain, but I never swallowed the overblown predictions of an economic crash resulting from the Brexit vote. Indeed, I said so in a post here a day or two after the vote. As the months roll by, its increasingly clear that all the media prognostications of doom made in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote have come to nought. This week saw publication of figures in Ireland for unemployment, tax receipts, manufacturing PMIs, services PMIs, consumer confidence, services index. They unanimously show no let up whatever in Ireland’s rate of growth. There was a slight wobble in July and August, but that’s now well and truly over. Similarly, the much-feared slowdown in the U. Kingdom economy has failed to materialise, While the Eurozone economy seems to be accelerating quite sharply. And its looking increasingly as if President Trump is about to engineer an almighty boom in the U. States, of which today’s jobs figures were the first harbinger. I’m still against Brexit, however, but mostly for its implications for the artificial border on this island.

  2. There is little value in arguing about short and long-term Brexit related forecasts — it has yet to happen.

    On UK GDP in the past 2 years, Ed Conway, Sky News’ economics editor, made some interesting points last week when he said the biggest contribution towards UK economic growth came not from manufacturing or banking but domestic workers such as cleaners and nannies:

    “Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel,” which means everyone from housekeepers to butlers, accounted for 2.1% of the extra UK national income generated over the past two years. The manufacturing sector, by contrast, accounted for just 0.2% of the extra growth, and the banking and finance industry generated only 0.3% of that growth…Consider the car industry. Much is made of the fact that Britain is making more cars than ever before. And indeed, over the past couple of years car manufacture accounted for 1.6% of total GDP growth. But far more important than that was car retail, which accounted for 7.8% of the extra growth.

    While nobody can forecast what’s going to happen, we do know that the leading Brexiters’ dreams of an exports miracle will not be realised.

    1. The EU is the biggest export market for 61 out of 62 British cities – with only Hull selling more goods and services to a different destination (the US) according to a January report from the Centre for Cities think-tank. Two thirds of British cities (41 out of 62) trade half or more of their exports to the EU, with even Derby – the city least reliant on EU markets – still selling a quarter of its exports to EU countries.

    The report also shows that British cities would have to dramatically increase trade with other international markets to compensate for a downturn in exports to the EU. For example, to make up for a 10% decrease in exports to the EU, British cities would have to nearly double exports to China, or increase exports to the US by nearly a third (31%).

    http://www.centreforcities.org/press/eu-trade-deal-must-governments-top-priority-brexit-negotiations-new-report-shows-eu-biggest-export-market-61-britains-62-cities/

    2. Much of the UK’s goods exports comprise components and it obtains a very high proportion of value added content from the European supply chain.

    http://bruegel.org/2016/12/is-the-uks-role-in-the-european-supply-chain-at-risk/

    3. There is also little upside potential for services in emerging markets.

    Bruegel said in a briefing last December:

    Although services are an important part of the UK’s international trade, comprising about 40% of UK exports and 24% of UK imports, services are only a tiny part of the UK’s bilateral trade with China. Net services exports to China account for only 2.5% of the UK’s total services trade surplus, and 0.12% of UK GDP. Against such backdrop, a bilateral free trade agreement would disappoint those who expect it to alter fundamentals of the UK-China bilateral services trade.

    http://bruegel.org/2016/12/uk-china-agreement-on-trade-in-services-is-no-substitute-for-a-uk-eu-deal/

    4. The UK has one of the lowest R&D spending ratios among big European economies and foreign firms are responsible for about half of business R&D spend.

    5. According to World Bank data, Germany has achieved a combined goods and services surplus every year since 1992; the UK has reported a trade deficit every year since 1997 and a current account deficit every year since the mid-1980s while France has posted a trade deficit every year since 2002 and a current account deficit since 2004. The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976.

    6. Since 2000, Germany has had had annual budget surpluses in 2000 and 2007 and continuously since 2014; the UK has reported deficits every year since 2002; France ever year since 1974 and Italy every year since 1924.

    7. The IMF says the UK’s net public debt will be 80% of gross domestic product in 2017; 90% in France; 114% in Italy; 82% in US and 44% in Germany.

    8. Net real wages in Germany fell between 2004 and 2008 but rose 14% in the period 2007-2015 while earnings in the UK and Greece plunged 10%. Data on average real earnings from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that there was almost stagnation in Italy in 2000-2015; in pound sterling terms, there was stagnation in the UK in 2002-2015; German earnings rose 9% in 2002-2015 while inflation-adjusted French earnings gained 14% in the same period.

    9. In December Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, told an audience in Liverpool, the once thriving port city of North-West England, that Britain has suffered its “first lost decade since the 1860s” when “Karl Marx was scribbling in the British Library.”

    The governor said that “Over the past decade real earnings have grown at the slowest rate since the mid-19th century.” Two weeks before Paul Johnson, the chief of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said average real earnings in 2021 will be below the 2008 level — “One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is, without real earnings growth. We have certainly not seen a period remotely like it in the last 70 years.”

    10. The Economist wrote last month:

    The curious thing is that Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”: immunising the country from foreign whim and interest, while asserting national dignity and independence. Increasingly that looks like a bad joke. The British elite feels it has no choice but to prostrate itself before an American president it clearly finds odious. To keep businesses from moving elsewhere, Britain may have to shadow EU regulations and pay into EU programmes without the chance to shape either. Its trade deals will be forged with a fraction of the negotiating force that has long promoted its interests. That means more concessions to the tariff and regulatory preferences of foreigners. Its application to become a full member of the World Trade Organisation is yet another opportunity for others to impose conditions and costs.

    11. The UK has threatened to slash corporate tax rates while Germany’s headline combined rate is in the range 30 to 33%.
    In 2014 General Electric (ex its finance unit which had substantial losses forward from the Great Recession) had an effective rate of 17% compared with Siemens, its German rival , which had a rate of 27%.

    Nevertheless, despite the high rate and higher wages, Germany has retained much of its manufacturing output at home compared with the US:

    http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetail.php?Trump-and-US-need-to-learn-right-lessons-from-Germany-s-success-759

  3. Destination unknown, but a number of factors do not bode well for Ireland.

    While the EU deserved a certain cumeuppance for its siding with the bondholders since 2008 , its treatment of peripheral states, and it adherence to a failed austerity agenda; the sheer crassness and recklessness of the Brexiteers is equally disturbing. Even more disturbing was to read the article by George Monbiot in the Guardian about how Dark Money on the US side of the Atlantic, has also managed to inveigle itself into the UK conservative party, and drive their anti-social agenda, notwithstanding Theresa May’s jam spreading rhetoric. One can see why the emergence of an EU ‘Good Riddance Party’ (see Colm McCarthy, Sun Ind) might be justified in the face of the Dark Money and darker agenda now influencing UK politics.

    Reason, common sense, and the common good appear to have departed the arena, and a House of Commons that might have been expected to chart a steadier course, has simply washed its hands of responsibility for the outcome.

    The chances of a hard Brexit, no EU/UK trade agreement, and a reversion to WTO are now much more likely, and a hard border may be taken as a given.

    But what should not be taken as a give, by Ireland, is that the starting point for agreed tariff rates for a new agreement, should be based on existing EU/WTO rates, or rates proportionate to those. It would appear far more equitable in the circumstances to argue that a similar rate should apply across all tariffs; so that for instance the tariff on meat products would be same as the tariff on cars.

    But given the soundings from Germany, it looks like an EU/UK trade deal will be decided by the interests of the bigger players.

    See excerpt from Reuters:

    “”We don’t want to punish the British for their decision,” Schaeuble said in a pre-released interview with the Sunday edition of Tagesspiegel. “We want to keep Britain close to us.”

    “London’s financial centre serves the whole European economy,” he added. “London offers a quality of financial services that are not to be found on the continent. That would change a bit after a separation, but we have to find reasonable rules here with Britain.”
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-idUKKBN15J0GL

    One wonders whether a trade off is already in the making between the major players; a trade off designed to benefit their own key interests. Ireland’s mus ensure that its food industry is trated just as favourable, with exactly the same tariffs, or less, than those for major industrial or consumer products, particularly cars.

    In the event of no agreement being reached with the UK, the reversion to WTO rates would have drastic consequences, for most of the EU countries, with Ireland being worst hit. The full extent of the negative potential is laid out very well in the paper by M Lawless and E Morgenroth.

    The fact that large negatives have not happened yet, is simply because a hard Brexit has not happened, yet.

  4. @JtO

    On The Artificial …

    ‘Ireland should already consider recruiting and training additional customs officials because the new customs offices at the border with Northern Ireland will need a sufficient number of well-trained staff, The workload will increase for Irish customs in other customs offices, too, due to the fact that trade with the UK will become subject to customs formalities, and irrespective of the kind of preferential agreement that might be concluded between the EU and the UK, if any.

    The main benefit of the Brexit for Ireland will be that it provides new work opportunities for customs specialists, accountants, IT experts, and infrastructure builders. Irish travellers will have to comply with the customs and the related Vat and excise rules when they buy goods in Northern Ireland.

    Michael Lux and Eric Pickett are customs and trade lawyers.’

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/the-irish-border-after-brexit-will-be-real-but-can-be-simplified-442136.html

    -1

  5. Reposting this as original has been in moderation limbo:

    There is little value in arguing about short and long-term Brexit related forecasts — it has yet to happen.

    On UK GDP in the past 2 years, Ed Conway, Sky News’ economics editor, made some interesting points last week when he said the biggest contribution towards UK economic growth came not from manufacturing or banking but domestic workers such as cleaners and nannies:

    “Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel,” which means everyone from housekeepers to butlers, accounted for 2.1% of the extra UK national income generated over the past two years. The manufacturing sector, by contrast, accounted for just 0.2% of the extra growth, and the banking and finance industry generated only 0.3% of that growth…Consider the car industry. Much is made of the fact that Britain is making more cars than ever before. And indeed, over the past couple of years car manufacture accounted for 1.6% of total GDP growth. But far more important than that was car retail, which accounted for 7.8% of the extra growth.

    While nobody can forecast what’s going to happen, we do know that the leading Brexiters’ dreams of an exports miracle will not be realised.

    1. The EU is the biggest export market for 61 out of 62 British cities – with only Hull selling more goods and services to a different destination (the US) according to a January report from the Centre for Cities think-tank. Two thirds of British cities (41 out of 62) trade half or more of their exports to the EU, with even Derby – the city least reliant on EU markets – still selling a quarter of its exports to EU countries.

    The report also shows that British cities would have to dramatically increase trade with other international markets to compensate for a downturn in exports to the EU. For example, to make up for a 10% decrease in exports to the EU, British cities would have to nearly double exports to China, or increase exports to the US by nearly a third (31%).

    http://www.centreforcities.org/press/eu-trade-deal-must-governments-top-priority-brexit-negotiations-new-report-shows-eu-biggest-export-market-61-britains-62-cities/

    2. Much of the UK’s goods exports comprise components and it obtains a very high proportion of value added content from the European supply chain.

    http://bruegel.org/2016/12/is-the-uks-role-in-the-european-supply-chain-at-risk/

    3. There is also little upside potential for services in emerging markets.

    Bruegel said in a briefing last December:

    Although services are an important part of the UK’s international trade, comprising about 40% of UK exports and 24% of UK imports, services are only a tiny part of the UK’s bilateral trade with China. Net services exports to China account for only 2.5% of the UK’s total services trade surplus, and 0.12% of UK GDP. Against such backdrop, a bilateral free trade agreement would disappoint those who expect it to alter fundamentals of the UK-China bilateral services trade.

    http://bruegel.org/2016/12/uk-china-agreement-on-trade-in-services-is-no-substitute-for-a-uk-eu-deal/

    4. The UK has one of the lowest R&D spending ratios among big European economies and foreign firms are responsible for about half of business R&D spend.

    5. According to World Bank data, Germany has achieved a combined goods and services surplus every year since 1992; the UK has reported a trade deficit every year since 1997 and a current account deficit every year since the mid-1980s while France has posted a trade deficit every year since 2002 and a current account deficit since 2004. The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976.

    6. Since 2000, Germany has had had annual budget surpluses in 2000 and 2007 and continuously since 2014; the UK has reported deficits every year since 2002; France ever year since 1974 and Italy every year since 1924.

    7. The IMF says the UK’s net public debt will be 80% of gross domestic product in 2017; 90% in France; 114% in Italy; 82% in US and 44% in Germany.

    8. Net real wages in Germany fell between 2004 and 2008 but rose 14% in the period 2007-2015 while earnings in the UK and Greece plunged 10%. Data on average real earnings from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that there was almost stagnation in Italy in 2000-2015; in pound sterling terms, there was stagnation in the UK in 2002-2015; German earnings rose 9% in 2002-2015 while inflation-adjusted French earnings gained 14% in the same period.

    9. In December Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, told an audience in Liverpool, the once thriving port city of North-West England, that Britain has suffered its “first lost decade since the 1860s” when “Karl Marx was scribbling in the British Library.”
    The governor said that “Over the past decade real earnings have grown at the slowest rate since the mid-19th century.” Two weeks before Paul Johnson, the chief of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said average real earnings in 2021 will be below the 2008 level — “One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is, without real earnings growth. We have certainly not seen a period remotely like it in the last 70 years.”

    10. The Economist wrote last month:

    The curious thing is that Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”: immunising the country from foreign whim and interest, while asserting national dignity and independence. Increasingly that looks like a bad joke. The British elite feels it has no choice but to prostrate itself before an American president it clearly finds odious. To keep businesses from moving elsewhere, Britain may have to shadow EU regulations and pay into EU programmes without the chance to shape either. Its trade deals will be forged with a fraction of the negotiating force that has long promoted its interests. That means more concessions to the tariff and regulatory preferences of foreigners. Its application to become a full member of the World Trade Organisation is yet another opportunity for others to impose conditions and costs.

    11. The UK has threatened to slash corporate tax rates while Germany’s headline combined rate is in the range 30 to 33%.
    In 2014 General Electric (ex its finance unit which had substantial losses forward from the Great Recession) had an effective rate of 17% compared with Siemens, its German rival , which had a rate of 27%.

    Nevertheless, despite the high rate and higher wages, Germany has retained much of its manufacturing output at home compared with the US:

    http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetail.php?Trump-and-US-need-to-learn-right-lessons-from-Germany-s-success-759

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